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JP Morgan Forecasts: Nigerian Government Could Earn $17bn from Oil Assets Sale

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The Federal Government might generate up to $17 billion by reducing its shares in many joint-venture oil and gas assets, according to a projection by the US-based bank, JP Morgan. This estimate emerges as the Nigerian government strategizes to amplify its foreign exchange revenues and fortify its external reserves, aiming to alleviate forex strain.

In a report titled, *’Nigeria: Reform pause rather than fatigue (CBN’s financial accounts open a can of worms)’*, JP Morgan highlighted that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) net FX reserves had plummeted to around $3.7 billion by the end of 2022, a sharp decline from the $14 billion recorded at the close of 2021.

The bank’s estimates are based on a few assumptions tied to IMF Special Drawing Rights, FX forwards, securities lending, and currency swaps. These assumptions are essential to deduce the actual net FX reserves, which if inaccurate, might significantly alter the overall perspective.

Despite the diminished forex reserves, JP Morgan indicated the CBN has avenues to acquire forex at various rates. The lucrative nature of currency swap arrangements between CBN and domestic banks will likely persist.

The government’s potential financial relief might come from selling its stakes in joint-venture oil and gas assets, which could accrue up to $17 billion, as recommended by the President’s policy advisory council. Furthermore, a $3 billion loan announced for NNPC may moderately enhance FX liquidity conditions.

However, JP Morgan cautioned about persistent forex pressures due to the vast external financing demands of the private sector. The US bank cited the structural balance of payments deficit and previously underestimated net FX reserves as challenges to transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime.

Short-term strategies might involve boosting oil output and tightening monetary policies, with the OMO auctions having recently resumed.

Discussing inflation, JP Morgan anticipates a surge to 28% by 2023’s end, primarily due to the removal of the petrol subsidy. This forecast surpasses the World Bank’s prediction of 25%. While inflation is expected to recede by early 2024, JP Morgan stresses the lingering inflationary pressures, especially from food costs.

The report further highlighted the impact of fuel subsidy removal, forex liquidity, and CBN’s financial data. Amid these challenges, the CBN adopted tighter monetary measures, hinting at the use of other tools instead of adjusting the MPR, which JP Morgan believes will remain at 18.75% for the year.

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Dangote Refinery Boosts Fuel Exports as Gulf Refineries Shut Down

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By: Fabian Apechihin

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has ramped up fuel exports to international markets amid widespread refinery shutdowns in the Middle East, industry sources confirmed.

A senior official at the $20bn Lagos-based plant told The PUNCH that the facility exported significant volumes of petrol (PMS), diesel (AGO), and aviation fuel (Jet A1) to foreign buyers in August, following earlier shipments in June and July.

The surge comes as Saudi Aramco and other regional producers face heavy maintenance schedules, tightening fuel supply. Aramco has already shut down two plants and plans further closures, including its 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery in Jubail for a 60-day turnaround in November–December. Kuwait and India are also scaling back capacity for maintenance and seasonal demand.

According to Argus Media, these shutdowns are pushing Gulf nations to import record volumes of gasoline, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE sharply increasing purchases from Europe and other markets in recent months.

While some reports pointed to operational constraints at Dangote’s 650,000 b/d facility, the company dismissed such claims, insisting production is on track to reach 700,000 b/d by December. Earlier this year, Aliko Dangote announced the refinery had sold two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco and recently achieved exports of about 1 million tonnes of petrol between June and July.

“With Gulf refiners offline, Nigeria has now emerged as a net exporter of refined products,” Dangote said.

Analysts suggest the extended refinery outages in the Middle East will further strengthen demand for Dangote’s output, positioning the Nigerian plant as a key supplier in regional fuel markets.


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US Oil Exports to Nigeria, Others Fall to 3.3m bpd as Local Output Rises

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By: Fabian Apechihin

The United States’ crude oil exports to Nigeria and other African countries fell for the fifth consecutive month in July 2025, averaging 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest level since March 2022.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) disclosed this in its August 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), attributing the decline to weaker flows to Europe and Africa, particularly Nigeria, but without giving further details.

Industry analysts link the slowdown to the ramp-up of local refining capacity, especially the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, which has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported crude, including from the US. Vanguard checks also show that crude importation has slowed further in recent months due to improved domestic production.

According to OPEC data, Nigeria’s crude oil output—excluding condensates—rose by 11 per cent year-on-year to 1.559 million bpd in July 2025, up from 1.386 million bpd in the same period of 2024. This marks the country’s highest monthly production level so far this year.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) corroborated the figures, stating that overall output, including condensates, exceeded 1.8 million bpd in July.

Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the NUPRC, said the milestone was achieved through the agency’s “Project 1 MMBOPD Incremental” initiative, supported by a multi-stakeholder collaborative framework.

“We are glad to report that we crossed the 1.8 million bpd mark on peak production last month, with average production hovering at 1.78 million bpd,” Komolafe stated.

He added that the Commission is working to sustain production growth by optimising the Maximum Efficient Rate (MER) framework, improving produced water management, and aligning operational shutdowns and maintenance schedules to minimise disruptions.

“With these measures and continued collaboration, the presidential mandate on production increase is well within reach,” he said.


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NDYPC Hails Otuaro’s Reforms in Presidential Amnesty Programme

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• Lauds transparency, fairness in beneficiary selection and grassroots empowerment

• Says reforms align with Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, restore trust in Niger Delta

The Niger Delta Youths for Positive Change (NDYPC) has commended the Administrator of the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP), Dr. Dennis Otuaro, for what it described as bold, people-focused reforms that are restoring trust and delivering tangible benefits to the Niger Delta.

In a statement signed and issued by Comrade Elliott Yibakeni, after the conclusion of leadership training sessions with ex-agitator leaders in Abuja, the group said the PAP, once in urgent need of renewal, is now undergoing a transformation that reflects transparency, fairness, and accountability.

“At a time when public trust in institutions was waning, Dr. Otuaro has emerged as a symbol of credibility and transformation,” the statement read. “His visionary leadership is restoring integrity, empowering communities, and driving a sustainable development agenda that resonates with the aspirations of the Niger Delta.”

According to NDYPC, under Otuaro’s leadership, beneficiary selection has become fair and merit-based, ending years of favoritism and political interference. The group added that access to education, skills training, and empowerment opportunities, both locally and abroad, is now guided by equity and open competition.

The group highlighted several internal reforms, including improved staff welfare, strengthened professional capacity, and strict adherence to best practices in public procurement. These, it said, have made the PAP more efficient, responsive, and transparent.

NDYPC also praised Otuaro’s inclusive governance style, noting his sustained engagement with traditional rulers, women leaders, civil society organizations, and local communities. This approach, the group said, has strengthened peace-building efforts and deepened trust between the PAP and the people it serves.

In line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, the PAP has maintained consistent payment of stipends to ex-agitators and extended direct support to vulnerable populations. NDYPC also applauded new healthcare interventions for ex-agitators facing health challenges.

The statement further commended the programme’s investments in scholarships, vocational training, and economic empowerment initiatives aimed at preparing Niger Delta youths for leadership, innovation, and sustainable livelihoods.

“Every decision reflects a deep commitment to public trust, responsible stewardship, and long-term development,” NDYPC stated. “Under Dr. Otuaro’s watch, the Niger Delta is rising stronger, united, and filled with renewed hope.”

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