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Boko Haram desertions in Nigeria could be the tipping point – Study

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At least 2,122 people associated with Boko Haram have left the group since Abubakar Shekau, long-time leader of its faction, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunnah lid-Da’wati wa’l-Jihad (JAS), died in May this year.

Understanding why members leave Boko Haram is important – it provides authorities with information that can be used to counter terrorism in the area, the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS) reported on Thursday.

ISS said it is largely two categories of people associated with JAS who are leaving. The first is civilians who couldn’t move away from areas under Shekau’s control while he was alive for fear of ruthless reprisals. The second category is fighters, high-ranking commanders and their families.

According to ISS, large-scale desertions from Boko Haram have occurred before, when notable events presented opportunities for people to leave the group.

Sustained actions by Nigeria’s military in 2014 and the major Multinational Joint Task Force-led operation against Boko Haram weeks before the country’s general elections in 2015 resulted in many members leaving.

The biggest wave of withdrawals was triggered by the 2016 intra-group rivalry that culminated in Boko Haram splitting into two factions – JAS and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).

Extensive counter-insurgency messaging by the government in that year also played a role. During this period, 800 Boko Haram associates surrendered to the government in three weeks. By the end of 2016, over 1,000 had left the group in Nigeria.

Events since May show that the absence of leadership can severely damage Boko Haram.

ISS research shows that people turned away from Boko Haram between 2015 and 2020 because of military operations against the group, poor living conditions for members, disillusionment and misalignment of objectives. There were at least 4,227 desertions from Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin up to 2020.

The recent departures occurred mainly in Nigeria, specifically Borno State. Combatants and affiliates are also surrendering to authorities in Cameroon, as some communities are close to the border between the two countries. People are leaving villages in and around Sambisa and other local government areas where JAS was known to operate.

However, disengagement isn’t occurring in Niger or Chad. JAS’s Bakura Doro sub-unit operating on the Lake Chad islands covering those axes is intact. It’s also insulated from intergroup clashes and ISWAP’s power grab that is happening in and around Sambisa – a move that is also fuelling desertions, according to ISS research.

Two primary reasons account for the mass departures. First, ISWAP is allowing civilians who do not want to be part of the group to leave. These were people who JAS, under Shekau, had kept against their will, using them as forced, unpaid labour and human shields. Those who tried to leave and were caught were severely punished, and in some cases, executed.

Some fighters leave without disassociating from the group, or denouncing Boko Haram’s ideology

Second, some JAS fighters who don’t want to join ISWAP are fleeing for their safety.

As ISWAP tightens its monopoly on violent extremist operations in the Lake Chad Basin, it has demoted some JAS commanders, replacing them with its own younger leaders from the Lake Chad islands.

Some JAS commanders were ousted because of their links to armed robbery, cattle rustling and kidnapping, and ISWAP doesn’t want them in positions of authority, sources say.

This has resulted in some disquiet in Sambisa. The ousted commanders are urging their combatants to protest against the injustice of Shekau’s death. Having been marked for arrest and possible execution, and realising they cannot defeat ISWAP in battle, these disaffected JAS members have just two choices. They can surrender to the military or risk the long journey to the Lake Chad islands area where new JAS leaders Bakura Doro and Bakura Sa’alaba are based.

Some JAS fighters who have tried to move from Sambisa to the Lake Chad islands have been blocked by ISWAP in Kumshe, in Borno State’s Bama local government area. Those who surrender to government authorities have done so discreetly to avoid ISWAP attacks.

Events since May show the security forces that the absence of leadership can severely damage Boko Haram. To further weaken the group, particularly ISWAP, military operations should target those in command of the extremist group. This could trigger more disengagements from ISWAP, further weakening Boko Haram as a whole.

Members’ reasons for deserting are as different as their roles in the group. Fighters leave without actually disassociating from the group or denouncing Boko Haram’s ideology. Surrendering to government forces just gives them a better chance of survival than the certain death of confronting ISWAP.

Nigerian security forces’ improved conduct and public image could also contribute to fighters surrendering to them, as they’re reportedly being treated humanely. Authorities can make the most of this as they try to end the decade-long crisis.

ISS researchers suggest that governments in the Lake Chad Basin region should use the ongoing departures to cripple the violent extremist group.

Governments should also follow judicial and rehabilitation processes in dealing with former fighters and their dependents. This might encourage further desertions, counter recidivism, improve intelligence gathering and prevent former combatants from reintegrating into communities far from the Lake Chad Basin.

Programmes for those who leave violent extremist groups cannot be generic. They must be tailored to the needs of the groups and individuals, including women and children, who make up the majority of the departures.

Countries must be prepared, however, as the current waves of desertions could strain the capacity of transit and rehabilitation centres, especially the Meri transit camp in Cameroon. Lake Chad Basin governments need to urgently bolster their technical, material and operational capacities to be ready for this.

Defence/Security

Blackened Faces, Barefoot March: Southern Kaduna Farmers Demand Justice Amid Escalating Herder Attacks

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By: Fabian Apechihin

In a powerful show of anguish and defiance, farmers from Kagarko Local Government Area in Southern Kaduna staged a barefoot march to the palace of Chief Yohanna Akaito on Saturday, their faces smeared with black paint and hands clutching mourning leaves.

The dramatic procession, led largely by women dressed in black, was a desperate plea for justice amid ongoing attacks by armed herders that have devastated their farmlands and left scores dead.

A viral video published by Sahara Reporters showed hundreds of farmers—men, women, and children—moving solemnly toward the palace. Their faces reflected grief and exhaustion. One woman, speaking through tears, declared, “They are killing us, our husbands, our children,” a cry that resonated through the gathered crowd.

This marks the third such protest in Southern Kaduna within a week, underscoring growing frustration in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, where herder-farmer clashes have claimed more than 10,000 lives since 2010, according to the International Crisis Group.

In Southern Kaduna, a region with a largely Christian population, these conflicts often carry ethnic and religious undertones, further deepening divisions. The farmers accuse local authorities of inaction despite Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani’s security initiatives. Critics insist that the persistent violence calls for a fundamental rethink of land-use policies, including the debate over grazing reserves and open grazing bans.

The protest has stirred intense debate online, with many Nigerians describing the situation as a humanitarian crisis and others calling it a “Christian genocide,” urging global attention and intervention.

As dusk fell over the palace, the image of blackened faces and bare feet lingered—a haunting symbol of a people’s resilience and a nation’s ongoing struggle to reconcile justice, security, and peace.

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Defence/Security

Monguno says lack of national cohesion fuels insurgency

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Former National Security Adviser, Maj.-Gen. Babagana Monguno (rtd.), has warned that Nigeria’s fight against insurgency will remain elusive without national cohesion and a united front across society.

Monguno stated this in Abuja on Thursday at the launch of Scars: Nigeria’s Journey and the Boko Haram Conundrum, a new book authored by former Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Lucky Irabor (rtd.).

He said Boko Haram and other violent groups had thrived by exploiting Nigeria’s divisions, stressing that disunity among citizens, political actors, and institutions weakened the country’s capacity to defeat terrorism.

“Without national cohesion, insurgency will not end. Terrorists feed on our fault lines – ethnic, religious, political – and they weaponise them against us. If we remain divided, no amount of military might will deliver lasting peace,” Monguno said.

He urged Nigerians to rise above parochial sentiments and embrace a spirit of patriotism, solidarity, and common purpose. According to him, the fight against insurgency must go beyond the battlefield to include reconciliation, justice, and inclusive governance.

The retired General emphasised that the scars left by Boko Haram were not just physical but also psychological and social, making unity a vital condition for national healing.

“The book reminds us that security is not just the work of soldiers. It is the responsibility of leaders, institutions, and citizens. Unless we build cohesion, insurgency will continue to mutate in different forms,” he added.

Monguno commended Gen. Irabor for documenting his experience, describing the work as a guide that combines history, strategy, and national lessons for the future.

The event was attended by former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, the Minister of Defence, service chiefs, traditional rulers, diplomats, and senior government officials.

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Obasanjo urges holistic approach to end Boko Haram, insecurity

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Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has called for a whole-of-society approach to tackle Boko Haram insurgency and other security challenges in Nigeria.

Obasanjo made the call on Thursday in Abuja while reviewing the book “Scars: Nigeria’s Journey and the Boko Haram Conundrum,” authored by retired Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Lucky Irabor.

The former president, who wrote the foreword to the book, said the insurgency which has lasted more than 15 years under four administrations had become a major threat to the stability of the nation.

He recalled Nigeria’s past security challenges, including pre-independence militancy, the Tiv riots, and the 30-month civil war, stressing that Boko Haram had now become one of the most protracted security issues the country had faced.

“In 2011, after the UN House attack in Abuja, I went to find out who these people were and what they wanted. I found that they were not really aiming for anything political or religious. In short, they were looking for a better life.

“Have we understood that? Have we taken the right steps? Should we accept this menace as part of our lives? If not, what should we do? How proactive have we been in dealing with this monster within our country?” Obasanjo asked.

He commended Irabor for the courage to document his experiences and perspectives on the insurgency, noting that the book would enrich ongoing national dialogue on peace and security.

Obasanjo said Nigeria must not shy away from interrogating its past in order to understand what was disrupting the present and shaping the future.

“The life of any nation has the good, the bad and the ugly. What is important is for us to confront our challenges honestly, look at our past and present, and when it is time to proffer solutions, we must look beyond the ordinary,” he said.

The former president also warned against treating Boko Haram and banditry as separate problems, stressing that both had become intertwined.

“Those who have things to say about Boko Haram do not even know when Boko Haram stops and banditry starts. They are all mixed together. We must begin to do something about it, and we must do it collectively,” he said.

The event was attended by former President Goodluck Jonathan, Minister of Defence Muhammad Badaru, service chiefs, royal fathers, senior military officers, members of the National Assembly and the diplomatic community.

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