Defence/Security

Boko Haram desertions in Nigeria could be the tipping point – Study

Published

4 years ago

August 19, 2021

At least 2,122 people associated with Boko Haram have left the group since Abubakar Shekau, long-time leader of its faction, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunnah lid-Da’wati wa’l-Jihad (JAS), died in May this year.

Understanding why members leave Boko Haram is important – it provides authorities with information that can be used to counter terrorism in the area, the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS) reported on Thursday.

ISS said it is largely two categories of people associated with JAS who are leaving. The first is civilians who couldn’t move away from areas under Shekau’s control while he was alive for fear of ruthless reprisals. The second category is fighters, high-ranking commanders and their families.

According to ISS, large-scale desertions from Boko Haram have occurred before, when notable events presented opportunities for people to leave the group.

Sustained actions by Nigeria’s military in 2014 and the major Multinational Joint Task Force-led operation against Boko Haram weeks before the country’s general elections in 2015 resulted in many members leaving.

The biggest wave of withdrawals was triggered by the 2016 intra-group rivalry that culminated in Boko Haram splitting into two factions – JAS and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).

Extensive counter-insurgency messaging by the government in that year also played a role. During this period, 800 Boko Haram associates surrendered to the government in three weeks. By the end of 2016, over 1,000 had left the group in Nigeria.

Events since May show that the absence of leadership can severely damage Boko Haram.

ISS research shows that people turned away from Boko Haram between 2015 and 2020 because of military operations against the group, poor living conditions for members, disillusionment and misalignment of objectives. There were at least 4,227 desertions from Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin up to 2020.

The recent departures occurred mainly in Nigeria, specifically Borno State. Combatants and affiliates are also surrendering to authorities in Cameroon, as some communities are close to the border between the two countries. People are leaving villages in and around Sambisa and other local government areas where JAS was known to operate.

However, disengagement isn’t occurring in Niger or Chad. JAS’s Bakura Doro sub-unit operating on the Lake Chad islands covering those axes is intact. It’s also insulated from intergroup clashes and ISWAP’s power grab that is happening in and around Sambisa – a move that is also fuelling desertions, according to ISS research.

Two primary reasons account for the mass departures. First, ISWAP is allowing civilians who do not want to be part of the group to leave. These were people who JAS, under Shekau, had kept against their will, using them as forced, unpaid labour and human shields. Those who tried to leave and were caught were severely punished, and in some cases, executed.

Some fighters leave without disassociating from the group, or denouncing Boko Haram’s ideology

Second, some JAS fighters who don’t want to join ISWAP are fleeing for their safety.

As ISWAP tightens its monopoly on violent extremist operations in the Lake Chad Basin, it has demoted some JAS commanders, replacing them with its own younger leaders from the Lake Chad islands.

Some JAS commanders were ousted because of their links to armed robbery, cattle rustling and kidnapping, and ISWAP doesn’t want them in positions of authority, sources say.

This has resulted in some disquiet in Sambisa. The ousted commanders are urging their combatants to protest against the injustice of Shekau’s death. Having been marked for arrest and possible execution, and realising they cannot defeat ISWAP in battle, these disaffected JAS members have just two choices. They can surrender to the military or risk the long journey to the Lake Chad islands area where new JAS leaders Bakura Doro and Bakura Sa’alaba are based.

Some JAS fighters who have tried to move from Sambisa to the Lake Chad islands have been blocked by ISWAP in Kumshe, in Borno State’s Bama local government area. Those who surrender to government authorities have done so discreetly to avoid ISWAP attacks.

Events since May show the security forces that the absence of leadership can severely damage Boko Haram. To further weaken the group, particularly ISWAP, military operations should target those in command of the extremist group. This could trigger more disengagements from ISWAP, further weakening Boko Haram as a whole.

Members’ reasons for deserting are as different as their roles in the group. Fighters leave without actually disassociating from the group or denouncing Boko Haram’s ideology. Surrendering to government forces just gives them a better chance of survival than the certain death of confronting ISWAP.

Nigerian security forces’ improved conduct and public image could also contribute to fighters surrendering to them, as they’re reportedly being treated humanely. Authorities can make the most of this as they try to end the decade-long crisis.

ISS researchers suggest that governments in the Lake Chad Basin region should use the ongoing departures to cripple the violent extremist group.

Governments should also follow judicial and rehabilitation processes in dealing with former fighters and their dependents. This might encourage further desertions, counter recidivism, improve intelligence gathering and prevent former combatants from reintegrating into communities far from the Lake Chad Basin.

Programmes for those who leave violent extremist groups cannot be generic. They must be tailored to the needs of the groups and individuals, including women and children, who make up the majority of the departures.

Countries must be prepared, however, as the current waves of desertions could strain the capacity of transit and rehabilitation centres, especially the Meri transit camp in Cameroon. Lake Chad Basin governments need to urgently bolster their technical, material and operational capacities to be ready for this.

Defence/Security

Why Christians Are Being Targeted in Nigeria — Majeed Dahiru Speaks

Published

2 weeks ago

November 13, 2025

Our Reporter

By: Fabian Apechihin

Public affairs analyst, Majeed Dahiru, has weighed in on the reports of targeted killings of Christians in Nigeria, insisting that President Bola Tinubu cannot be accused of religious bias or complicity in the country’s security challenges.

Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Dahiru said President Tinubu has shown a strong commitment to national security and unity since taking office.

“President Tinubu has not, by any stretch of the imagination, been accused of religious bigotry or having sympathy for Islamist jihadist terror groups,” he stated.

According to him, the president has mobilised the armed forces and other security agencies to combat insurgency and restore stability in violence-prone regions.

Dahiru acknowledged that attacks on Christians in some parts of the country remain worrisome but maintained that there has been visible progress in the fight against terrorism and banditry.

“Absolutely not. You can criticise him for every other thing, but not for religious bias. There is no way he would sit idly as Commander-in-Chief and allow or encourage the killing of Christians,” he added.

His comments follow heightened international concern over alleged religiously motivated killings in Nigeria.

On October 31, former U.S. President Donald Trump described the situation as a “mass slaughter,” warning that Christianity faces an existential threat in Nigeria.

Trump also directed Congressman Riley Moore and House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole to investigate the reported killings, saying:

“I am hereby making Nigeria a ‘country of particular concern.’ But that is the least of it. When Christians, or any such group, are slaughtered as is happening in Nigeria (3,100 versus 4,476 worldwide), something must be done!”

However, the Nigerian government has dismissed the claims of a “Christian genocide,” insisting that security forces are confronting all forms of criminality without ethnic or religious bias.

Defence/Security

Genocide Allegations: Group Urges Tinubu to File Treason Charges Against Nigerians Who Reported Country to Trump

Published

3 weeks ago

November 10, 2025

Our Reporter

By: Fabian Apechihin

The National Patriotic Elders for Peace and Harmony of Nigeria (NPEPHN) has called on President Bola Tinubu to file treasonable felony charges against Nigerians who allegedly reported cases of Christian massacres to the United States government.

In a statement issued on Friday, the group’s president, Dr. Bature AbdulAziz, condemned the actions of those he described as “unpatriotic elements”, insisting that their reports to foreign powers amounted to a betrayal of national sovereignty.

“Nigeria is a sovereign nation with adequate laws to address the concerns of its citizens,” AbdulAziz said. “Reporting the country to another nation is nothing short of treasonable felony, and those responsible must be prosecuted.”

The elders also urged Northern governors to urgently convene a regional security meeting involving religious and ethnic leaders to address the recurring violence in the region and to present verified data on casualties to counter “false narratives” being circulated internationally.

According to AbdulAziz, the silence of Northern leaders amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of military intervention in Nigeria was unacceptable. He advised them to compile accurate records of attacks and present factual evidence before relevant authorities.

“The claim that over 500,000 Christians have been killed must be supported with verifiable data,” he said. “The U.S. government knows that most of the victims of insecurity in Nigeria are Muslims, not Christians.”

Citing data from various conflict-prone regions, AbdulAziz maintained that 75 percent of victims of terrorism and communal violence since 1999 have been Muslims, noting that most of the affected areas — including Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa, Bauchi, Borno, and Yobe — are predominantly Muslim communities.

“These are the towns and villages that have been burned, destroyed, and displaced repeatedly,” he added.

While acknowledging that parts of the North Central zone — including Benue, Plateau, Taraba, and Kwara — have a higher Christian population, AbdulAziz said most of the conflicts in those states stem from farmer-herder clashes, where both sides suffer heavy losses.

“In many cases, Muslim herders are attacked and displaced by host communities. Their families and livestock are killed, yet no one talks about those casualties,” he noted.

AbdulAziz faulted the U.S. government for allegedly accepting “false genocide claims” without conducting independent investigations.

“It is shocking that the United States would believe such fabrications despite its advanced intelligence systems. We suspect there is a hidden political motive — possibly linked to Nigeria’s stance on the Israel-Palestine issue at the United Nations, or our government’s growing alignment with France and other nations,” he alleged.

The elder statesman reminded Donald Trump of Nigeria’s historic role in promoting peace and democracy across Africa.

“Any attack on Nigeria would destabilize several African nations that depend on her strength. We therefore appeal to President Trump to reconsider his decision,” AbdulAziz stated.

The group reiterated its support for President Tinubu’s administration and urged Nigerians to unite in defending the country’s sovereignty from “external manipulation and internal sabotage.”

Defence/Security

Retired ACP Sheriff Rabiu Blasts Northern Clerics Over Hate Preaching, Almajiri Menace

Published

3 weeks ago

November 10, 2025

Our Reporter

By: Fabian Apechihin

A retired Assistant Commissioner of Police, Sheriff Abubakar Rabiu, has sparked nationwide debate with a hard-hitting open letter accusing some Northern Islamic clerics of fueling division and violence through incendiary sermons.

The strongly worded message, which has gone viral across WhatsApp groups, mosque forums, and security networks, condemned what Rabiu described as the “toxic preaching culture” that has poisoned the minds of Northern youths and laid the foundation for extremist movements like Boko Haram.

“Nobody has the key to Jannatul Firdausi except Allah,” Rabiu wrote. “Yet any Tom, Dick, and Harry with shallow knowledge of Islam grabs a microphone and calls our Christian brothers ‘Arna’, ‘Kafurai’, or ‘infidels destined for hell’. This is not Islam. This is madness — and this madness gave birth to Boko Haram.”

Rabiu, who once served as Chief Security Officer to former Adamawa Governor Murtala Nyako, said Nigeria’s greatest internal threats are hate preaching and the Almajiri system, which he described as a breeding ground for radicalization.

“An idle mind is the devil’s workshop. Those street children begging today are tomorrow’s recruits and foot soldiers for every terrorist group promising paradise for killing ‘infidels’,” he warned.

Turning his criticism inward, Rabiu questioned why Northern leaders were quick to blame Donald Trump for placing Nigeria on a religious freedom watchlist while ignoring the behaviors that justified it.

“Instead of shouting that Trump is Islamophobic, let’s ask ourselves why America put us on that list,” he said. “In Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or the UAE, try preaching hate from a pulpit — you’ll be arrested the same day. But here in secular Nigeria, they insult Christians from Friday to Friday and nobody stops them.”

Rabiu urged President Bola Tinubu to take decisive action by directing the National Assembly, Northern governors, and local government councils to enact and enforce laws criminalizing:

The use of derogatory religious labels like arne or kafir
Street begging by children under the Almajiri system
Hate speech disguised as preaching

“Do this sincerely,” he cautioned, “and America will see that we are serious. Fail, and we invite the same war machinery that turned Afghanistan and Iraq into graveyards.”

The retired officer ended with a nostalgic appeal for unity:

“If we implement these measures, Nigeria will return to the peace we had in the 1970s — when Muslims and Christians drank from the same cup, married each other’s sisters, and buried each other’s dead.”

By Thursday evening, Rabiu’s open letter had been shared in over 40 Northern WhatsApp groups, drawing support from youth leaders and religious moderates alike.

A community leader in Kano’s Hotoro suburb said, “This is the first time a respected Muslim officer has spoken this boldly. If our governors ignore him, they are the real enemies of Islam.”

Although the Kano Hisbah Board declined to comment officially, a senior commander who spoke off record admitted, “Mallam Sheriff said what many of us whisper privately. The question is — who will bell the cat?”

As Northern Nigeria grapples with rising tension over the message, one fact remains clear: a retired police officer has drawn a bold red line against radical preaching — and the ripple effect may reshape the region’s religious discourse for years to come.