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IMF Stands Firm on Advice for Nigeria’s Subsidy Removal

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaffirmed its recommendation for Nigeria to remove fuel subsidies and adjust foreign exchange (FX) rates as crucial steps for achieving macroeconomic stability.

In an email to Premium Times on Wednesday, the IMF reiterated the importance of these policy changes. Abebe Selassie, director of the African department at the IMF, praised the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration during a recent press briefing at the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Selassie highlighted the need for Nigeria to invest in infrastructure, health, and education, emphasizing that removing the subsidy represents a more efficient use of public funds. He stated that this move could unlock Nigeria’s economic potential, attract investments, and spur growth.

Furthermore, Selassie urged the Nigerian government to utilize the savings from subsidy removal to support vulnerable households facing economic challenges.

However, on October 25, local media reported that the IMF had distanced itself from the decision to eliminate the petrol subsidy. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) criticized the IMF for this denial on October 28.

In response to these developments, the IMF clarified that it had evaluated Nigeria’s petrol subsidy and FX rate policies prior to the recent reforms and deemed the subsidy “not cost-effective.”

The IMF explained, “Based on our research and international experience, we do not view the petrol subsidy as the best method for providing relief to Nigerians. This subsidy benefits not only low-income households but also wealthier citizens who do not require government support.”

The institution further noted evidence of subsidized petrol being smuggled into neighboring countries, where prices were higher, indicating that the subsidy inadvertently aided non-Nigerians.

By removing the subsidy, the IMF believes that Nigeria can redirect resources to priority areas such as social protection, health, education, and infrastructure.

The IMF also assessed Nigeria’s fixed exchange rate policy, which was in place until mid-2023, labeling it as unsustainable. They noted that not all dollar demand was met at the official rate, forcing many Nigerians to turn to the parallel market at a significantly higher cost.

“Until mid-2023, some Nigerians purchased dollars at the official rate of around N460, while others had to pay about N750 in the parallel market,” the IMF stated. “This disparity pressured the Central Bank of Nigeria’s reserves and was not a sustainable solution.”

The IMF concluded that by allowing the naira’s value to be determined by market conditions, all citizens can access U.S. dollars at the same price.

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Dangote Refinery Boosts Fuel Exports as Gulf Refineries Shut Down

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By: Fabian Apechihin

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has ramped up fuel exports to international markets amid widespread refinery shutdowns in the Middle East, industry sources confirmed.

A senior official at the $20bn Lagos-based plant told The PUNCH that the facility exported significant volumes of petrol (PMS), diesel (AGO), and aviation fuel (Jet A1) to foreign buyers in August, following earlier shipments in June and July.

The surge comes as Saudi Aramco and other regional producers face heavy maintenance schedules, tightening fuel supply. Aramco has already shut down two plants and plans further closures, including its 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery in Jubail for a 60-day turnaround in November–December. Kuwait and India are also scaling back capacity for maintenance and seasonal demand.

According to Argus Media, these shutdowns are pushing Gulf nations to import record volumes of gasoline, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE sharply increasing purchases from Europe and other markets in recent months.

While some reports pointed to operational constraints at Dangote’s 650,000 b/d facility, the company dismissed such claims, insisting production is on track to reach 700,000 b/d by December. Earlier this year, Aliko Dangote announced the refinery had sold two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco and recently achieved exports of about 1 million tonnes of petrol between June and July.

“With Gulf refiners offline, Nigeria has now emerged as a net exporter of refined products,” Dangote said.

Analysts suggest the extended refinery outages in the Middle East will further strengthen demand for Dangote’s output, positioning the Nigerian plant as a key supplier in regional fuel markets.


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US Oil Exports to Nigeria, Others Fall to 3.3m bpd as Local Output Rises

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By: Fabian Apechihin

The United States’ crude oil exports to Nigeria and other African countries fell for the fifth consecutive month in July 2025, averaging 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest level since March 2022.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) disclosed this in its August 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), attributing the decline to weaker flows to Europe and Africa, particularly Nigeria, but without giving further details.

Industry analysts link the slowdown to the ramp-up of local refining capacity, especially the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, which has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported crude, including from the US. Vanguard checks also show that crude importation has slowed further in recent months due to improved domestic production.

According to OPEC data, Nigeria’s crude oil output—excluding condensates—rose by 11 per cent year-on-year to 1.559 million bpd in July 2025, up from 1.386 million bpd in the same period of 2024. This marks the country’s highest monthly production level so far this year.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) corroborated the figures, stating that overall output, including condensates, exceeded 1.8 million bpd in July.

Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the NUPRC, said the milestone was achieved through the agency’s “Project 1 MMBOPD Incremental” initiative, supported by a multi-stakeholder collaborative framework.

“We are glad to report that we crossed the 1.8 million bpd mark on peak production last month, with average production hovering at 1.78 million bpd,” Komolafe stated.

He added that the Commission is working to sustain production growth by optimising the Maximum Efficient Rate (MER) framework, improving produced water management, and aligning operational shutdowns and maintenance schedules to minimise disruptions.

“With these measures and continued collaboration, the presidential mandate on production increase is well within reach,” he said.


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NDYPC Hails Otuaro’s Reforms in Presidential Amnesty Programme

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• Lauds transparency, fairness in beneficiary selection and grassroots empowerment

• Says reforms align with Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, restore trust in Niger Delta

The Niger Delta Youths for Positive Change (NDYPC) has commended the Administrator of the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP), Dr. Dennis Otuaro, for what it described as bold, people-focused reforms that are restoring trust and delivering tangible benefits to the Niger Delta.

In a statement signed and issued by Comrade Elliott Yibakeni, after the conclusion of leadership training sessions with ex-agitator leaders in Abuja, the group said the PAP, once in urgent need of renewal, is now undergoing a transformation that reflects transparency, fairness, and accountability.

“At a time when public trust in institutions was waning, Dr. Otuaro has emerged as a symbol of credibility and transformation,” the statement read. “His visionary leadership is restoring integrity, empowering communities, and driving a sustainable development agenda that resonates with the aspirations of the Niger Delta.”

According to NDYPC, under Otuaro’s leadership, beneficiary selection has become fair and merit-based, ending years of favoritism and political interference. The group added that access to education, skills training, and empowerment opportunities, both locally and abroad, is now guided by equity and open competition.

The group highlighted several internal reforms, including improved staff welfare, strengthened professional capacity, and strict adherence to best practices in public procurement. These, it said, have made the PAP more efficient, responsive, and transparent.

NDYPC also praised Otuaro’s inclusive governance style, noting his sustained engagement with traditional rulers, women leaders, civil society organizations, and local communities. This approach, the group said, has strengthened peace-building efforts and deepened trust between the PAP and the people it serves.

In line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, the PAP has maintained consistent payment of stipends to ex-agitators and extended direct support to vulnerable populations. NDYPC also applauded new healthcare interventions for ex-agitators facing health challenges.

The statement further commended the programme’s investments in scholarships, vocational training, and economic empowerment initiatives aimed at preparing Niger Delta youths for leadership, innovation, and sustainable livelihoods.

“Every decision reflects a deep commitment to public trust, responsible stewardship, and long-term development,” NDYPC stated. “Under Dr. Otuaro’s watch, the Niger Delta is rising stronger, united, and filled with renewed hope.”

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