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INTERVIEW: How We Plan to Upstage APC in Borno- Capt. Mshelia
The Southern part of Borno State have been agitating for power to rotate between the three Senatorial Districts, so that one of them could have the opportunity to lead. It is against this background that Captain Kadafur Mshelia seeks to replace the incumbent Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum as the next governor in the 2023 elections. Speaking at national TRAIL newspaper podium, the aircraft pilot tells Nigerians Youths will mobilize against rigging and why Governor Zulum needs to give way in Birno.Excerpts:
Background on who Captain Kadafur Mshelia is
Captain Ibrahim Kadafir Mshelia is a native of Subwang residing in Shaffa. He was born in Garkida General Hospital on 21st May 1963 to Mallam Ibrahim Yabrim Mshelia, A world war II veteran and Ex colonial Police officer and Mrs Maraymu Ibrahim Mshelia.
Ibrahim is a Nigerian from Hawul Local Government Area of Borno State. He is a practising muslim, happily and delightfully married to Mrs Ann Nkem Mshelia, nee Tolefe, a practicing catholic Woman from Asaba, Delta State. They are blessed with 4 grown up wonderful Children who are all graduates and independent.
Capt Ibrahim is a seasoned professional pilot whose experience spans 40 years and counting. He is Certified as an Airline Transport Pilot, Flight instructor pilot and designated pilot examiner (Ghana CAA and Nigeria CAA). He has equally traversed the world flying VVIP operations, passenger, Cargo/mail delivery operations, scheduled and charter operations. Captain Ibrahim co-opted his wife Nkem as his business partner. Together, they founded an Airline in Nigeria: West Link Airlines Limited , based in Abuja undertaking Jet charters and Mish Aviation Services Limited, the parent company of Mish Aviation Flying school Ghana, the First Privately own Pilot Training Institution in the sub saharan Africa.
Capt Ibrahim’s career started at the Nigerian Civil Aviation Training Centre (NCATC), now renamed the Nigerian College of Aviation Technology, (NCAT), Zaria. He set a target to acquire all the professional advanced licenses within 5 years after school graduation. He achieved that in four years.
Ibrahim wanted to pay back the Government for sponsoring his pilot training.
Upon return from USA after successful completion of all his advance courses, he volunteered himself to work for the National Air Border Patrol Unit as Dornier 228 Airborne surveillance captain. He was posted to the Kaduna Immigration Command and further to the Kaduna Air wing which was then just newly created.
As a Captain at the airwing, he was also a Superintendent of Immigration (SoI) as well as Staff Officer in charge of Housing and General Personnel Welfare. A position which deputized for the commander in his absence.
His first stint in commercial aviation was with Express Airways, Kaduna where his dedication to duty and professionalism earned him recognition by the British Training Captain, who recommended him for early command (Captaincy). Ibrahim was checked out as Airline Captain November 5, 1987, at the age of 24 years.
Ibrahim’s work experience included flying and management. He started managing as Chief Pilot for Express Airways in 1989 and later, Operations Manager for M & W Pump Corporation in Miami, Florida, Al-Koul Ltd, Houston Texas. Furthermore, Muk Air Ghana as Chief Pilot. One of Ghana’s first domestic private operators.
Ibrahim and Nkem decided it was time for independence and returned to Nigeria in 1999 with a vision to create an airline that will succeed them and several of their generations to come. Ibrahim registered West Link Airlines Ltd 31st December 1999. Mshelia at the same time was also consulting for a prospective airline then, Albarka Air Services Ltd. Which he setup and manage successfully as the founding Director of Operations till July 2001 when he voluntarily resigned to pursue his dreams.
In 2006, There was serious damage to crops by quilea Birds that at the northern Nigerian frontline States. Federal Government and farmers were very worried on how to save their crops from damage. Ibrahim, privately sponsored himself to Ag – Flight, Bainbridge, Georgia USA where he got certified as Ag – Pilot (Agriculture Pilot) with a Diploma in Agricultural flying and aerial operations. As a Certified Flight Instructor, Ibrahim could also teach same to others. Ibrahim served the Nigerian Government and some State Governments effectively and increased crop production throughout the years he participated.
While Ibrahim and Ann nursed their young companies to grow, in recognition of his uprightness and professionalism, He was also appointed by late President Yaradua as a member of the Federal Government’s presidential committee set up to investigate the failure of search and rescue efforts at locating the 2008 missing Wings Aviation 1900D aircraft. Additionally, post Dana Air crash in Lagos, Ibrahim being well sort after for truth is needed, was also appointed a member/secretary of the Technical and Administrative Review of Domestic Airlines. Air accidents were more common then. The report has helped to reorganize the aviation industry for the better and Nigeria won and maintains USA CAT-1.
Captain Ibrahim is founder of The Ibrahim Kadafir Foundation, setup in 2018 to continue on a larger scale to support widows and orphans. The foundation is under construction but the service has been ongoing by Ibrahim and Ann for over 20 years. Foundations currently caters for several widows and orphans. Ibrahim is known for his consistency in philanthropy, uprightness and high moral discipline. Despite administrative business, Captain Ibrahim Mshelia has flown over 12,000 and counting because he is still active flying from time to time to stay current till compulsory retirement at age 65 years God willing..
Unfolding events towards the 2023 elections portend some dangerous dimensions, do you think Nigeria can build a political culture devoid of religion and ethnic considerations,?
Answer:
Personally, I do not see any danger in the coming elections at all. I see a political revolution if you like. Nigerians have all been through the thick and thin of nationhood. Things starting with high hopes in 1999 with the ushering in of democracy. But gradually, things started taking turns for the worse rather than the best. All due to either ineptitude, bad governance and or corruption. Nigerian youth who are over 65% of the population are worse hit by these successive failures of governance. If you have been monitoring nationwide what the youth are doing now, majority of them have smelt the coffee and have certainly woken up. I am monitoring them closely and this time around, their resolve is glaring for anyone who has eyes, ears, and feelings to see, hear and touch the vibe.. the rhythm has changed. The dance steps are also going to change.
My concern is simple but very very serious. This is where I worry. Should the political class dare deny the victory or attempt to write results and rig the election and or act in a manner that casts doubts on the credibility of the results, I am seeing that this time around the youth and Nigerians generally are now tired and will defend their mandate. You know they have no guns or arms, antecedents of our governments and security agencies in dealing with such civil protests have been bloody instead of global norm. Should the security agencies mismanage them and show any sign of uncivility. This is where I will have some fears. Because Nigerians are tired and would not want the 2022 electoral law be tampered with. It has been tested in Ekiti and Osun, produced credible elections and is now trusted to give credible elections. I can therefore only appeal to desperate politicians too to smell the other coffee pot too and exercise real caution desisting from their usual business. .
3. You were with the Muhammadu Buhari administration for long, at what point did it start to get things wrong, leading to your exit?
Answer:
Well, let me make some clarifications here, I have not always been a Politician. But yes, you are correct that I have been supporting General Buhari for long whichever party he run under. Since he came out to contest 2003, I began my support for his candidacy, but he did not know me in 2003. I got to know him personally 2006. As with all humans, we get to hear about someone, meet or serve etc with a person and you take likeness. I have always liked General Buhari as a person and developed more likeness and respect for him when I had the opportunities to fly him severally and interacted with him. My admiration for him started on the coming of the Military government which he headed between 1983 and 1985. I loved that Government for the return of public discipline then to the society. Nigerians then had lost their senses of self-respect and would not even que up in public space. Thanks to the War Against Indiscipline,WAI, mantra if that era.
Right from my early childhood, my father had often sat me down and explained life to me. In which he usually concluded, that there are two options generally in life; option one is to be a good citizen of Nigeria because God makes no mistakes. Being born Nigerian was God’s choice and not mine. So, I had a duty to her and myself. The other is to be a bad or passive citizen. He said bad and passive are the same. To be good citizen, my father said was difficult because you must always uphold the truth, be seen to be equitable always, be just, insist and fight for Justice and be accountable for all your actions. These he said would guarantee me peace, progress and abundance of Gods blessings and that my destiny shall to come through intact. To decide to be bad however, my father told me this option was very easy. Because I need not uphold truth, tell all the lies as I wish, deceive people including myself, live a life without principles etc. But he said, this second option, as easy as it, will lead me into temporary happiness but doom and destruction awaits me.
So as General Muhammadu Buhari came out to contest again in 2007, being that I have now gotten familiar with him, it was a natural thing for me to support him with all I had. I did same in 2011 and 2015 where he eventually won the elections.
Now, because I was not into politics perse, I would say prior to my joining politics in 2018, I decided to study the issues which Buhari went through that I was aware of and also what my people of Borno were going through in the hands of our leaders.
When the election was won, I was so happy and even shut down my flying school in Ghana and begun moving back home,I even applied for Space at Minna Airport to start the flight training in Nigeria. All my efforts to get space at Minna Airport to build my classrooms etc however failed. By 2018, I got tired and gave up. Went back to reopen in Ghana. The frustration that I went through as a good citizen and an ardent Supporter of even an incumbent Government made me to join politics and chose the Labour Party then in 2018. I went into politics to see what it is that which makes people change when they attain power. I still can’t recover from my experiences and that of others I also know.
My choice of labour party too then, was because I now understand the game and I needed the ticket without the usual money transactions that make our politics look like trading places.
It would be wrong to say therefore that I left Buhari as a person. He is still my father figure and I respect him l. I got to know him as a father. He is still a father figure to me, and I will always and forever respect him. But as for the administration which he heads, if I am to score them between pass and fail, I am not able to pass them because personally to me, the administration has not met their promises to me and I hear and see same all over people are complaining of same. So, I am in the race to replace a failed leadership and fulfill those things they promised, and I know they are capable, but failed to perform.
Now, coming to parting ways with his party the APC and contesting against it in 2019. I am also a human being and blood, water and flesh abide within me too like all of them in APC. Politics is about interest also, everyone is free to pursue his interest legally. That is what I did in 2019 and continuing. 2023, so help me God.
4. what are the issues that will define your campaigns for Peter Obi, and other Labour Party candidates away from the personality attacks and other frivolous propaganda that have dominated the debates?
Answer:
My principals: Peter Obi and Yusuf Datti, have explained the situation we are in today and the position we of labour party have taken to save Nigeria. Therefore, we contestants, members or supporters of labour party (Obedient Movement) are focussed on fixing the damage caused to Nigeria and Nigeria by successive Governments including the APC. So, as demonstrated by our principal Peter Obi, we are not in this contest as desperados to grab power, but we are indeed desperados to fix Nigeria by bring her people out of poverty, provide basic livelihood for them to strive in life. In short, our concerns are Nigeria and Nigerians, we have blocked our ears and have been advised by our leader Peter Obi to disregard all forms of attacks as it is political mediocrity. We shall stay focussed on the issues and do politics without Bitterness. Nigeria is like a child that fell in a swimming pool and can’t swim. If you are the owner or person responsible for the child, would your attention notice anyone fabricating lies, calling you all sorts of names while you’re focussed on saving the child? No!! so let them do whatever they want to do, while we stay focussed on the issues.
5. Is it right to say Peter Obi was overrated in the two previous opinion polls where he led the duo of Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu?
Answer:
Absolutely NOT!! The mistakes people who cannot read handwritings on the wall or people who are just set in their ways do is to take things for granted. Are you watching the social media and the youth activities called Obedient?? Or Yusufull?. Nigerian youth constitute over 65% of the electorates and they have gone through hell and are still going through hell. They are tired and now saying enough is enough. A wise man will listen to them. This time I can see they mean it. That’s why they have decided to prove to the die-hard sceptics telling them elections are not won on social media. Did you see the follow-up rallies with them now displaying their PVC an chanting : Them say we no get structure, dem no dey vote for socialmedia abi? okay we are the structure and these are our pvc…? The candidates have presented themselves and youth have chosen their candidate. So the polls will continue to favour Peter Obi, because the youths and most Nigerian are convinced is only Peter Obi that can deliver. Let those who feel Peter and the youth are fooling themselves hold their own, abi// why are they jittery? Elections are coming, if they are confident that labour and the Obedient movement is a social media rubbish, why are they afraid??
6. What would you say about Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, who Nigerians feel have the upper hand ahead of Peter Obi?
Answer;
I personally do not think they have upper hand over Peter Obi. Therefore I have nothing to say about them. I am a well cultured person and respect elders. These two are both father figures to me and are entitled to contest as Nigerians. I am running for lower office and my campaign is not against them. I would rather leave them with my principal. However. Recall I told you my father told me of only two options, and I chose to be patriotic. In being so, equity and justice is also my way of life. There is injustice in the polity, and I choose to be on the side of justice.
Here is my reason why I am supporting particularly Obi presidency over Atiku and Tinubu.: Since coming of sweet democracy 1999. We have had 6 zones. President and Vice are my reference for this argument.
1999-2007 ; Obasanjo/Atiku= South West/ NorthEast
2007-2009 : Yar’adua/Goodluck = North West/ South South
2009-2011: Goodluck/ Namadi= SouthSouth/ NorthWestl.
2011-2015- Goodluck/Namadi – SouthSouth/ Northwest
2015-2019- Buhari/Osinbajo = NorthWest/SouthWest.
If you look at above, conspicuously absent is SouthEast. They have not had a chance to enjoy the number ONE OR TWO positions since 1999 after consolidating democracy. As a good citizen by choice. Where there is no justice, equity, and accountability, my parents teachings and religious doctrine inform me not to be a part, support or allow where I can stop it. I want to enthrone equity and justice. My party in producing the Obi/Datti ticket is doing justice to the Nigerian democracy and federal character as enshrined in the current constitution as amended. Am proud to be a part of the Obedient movement, I will be proud to be part of an Obi Presidency. Because I know he is the MOST competent for now to do the rescue..
7. What principally motivated you into the race for the Governorship race in Borno state?.
Answer;
I am a beneficiary of good governance in Borno growing up. Over the years I observed that people are getting poorer and poorer, I can no longer drive home within a short time and come because there are no more roads, the schools and health facilities have been neglected. While my people, in some and many parts of state of Borno, today October 2022, still drink water from the same river as their animal’s drink, health facilities are dysfunctional some part have to travel to neighbouring States to attend to most healthcare concerns, dilapidated and inhuman conditions for learning in some parts etc. The most concerning that brought me into the race, is that the rest of Nigeria and the world are being fed with lies that we are all good and things are so wonderful. I can tell Nigerians and the world too that this is not all true. Let them publish the coordinates of the over 520 projects they are telling People they did, publish the costs. In addition to the false and misleading claims, they said they have contained Boko Haram. This is the last 8 months of the 8 years of this Government who claim to love the people, why are people still in camps. If you love someone, even when he visits you, you make a comfortable accommodation and feeding for them. Go and look at the camps and the condition these people they love stay, terrible to say the least. I can go on and on. They have also failed the people woefully. The people are also very happy that I have accepted to run again. Particularly that the electoral law 2022 now will make elections transparent and credible. Inec has also demonstrated in the last two tests of the new act that they are up to task and determine this time around..Kudos and three Gbosas for Professor Mahmoud Yakubu and his team..
Final on this question, I am a concerned citizen of Borno and I know too that all the wonderful projects that they claimed to do are not all true, I took time to fact check and I found out that development in Borno is in the social media only and not all reported that is truth and on ground to see. The only way to make change or impact in a democracy is to join politics. This is why I joined, because I want to give the people their basic needs so they can strive and develop their God given talents to their benefits, the state benefits and the country at large
8. What do you consider as the major failings of the APC administration in Borno, that you could use to upstage the incumbent Governor?
The ban on campaign for the Governorship is lifting on 12th. I want to keep the loopholes to my chest to use for my campaign. If I mention now, they will start blocking the loopholes and weaken my argument….laughter..
9. We understand the Southern part of Borno has never produced a Governor in Borno. How do you hope to break that jinx?
It has not because the people who have had the opportunity to lead first are flagrant abusers of the law and do not respect the federal character. Rotation, equity and justice is not a choice in our constitution, it is a law. Hence depriving other senatorial districts the opportunity is flagrant abuse of the law. The same youth abide in Borno and they have also said enough is enough. Interestingly youth from all three senatorial districts are united and am sure they will vote right and they also know what the Obedient movement will bring, production instead of consumption and they will be employed. They also know my integrity is second to none and are working assiduously to cause this desirable change. This government and previous made them fake promises and can be proven by the statistics of unemployment over the years. They know us individually and next elections is about personal integrity and not party. They also know now that the handouts they are given instead of employment is a deliberate ploy to keep them poor for political purposes every 4 years. All have wised up now. So am confident that my impeccable integrity will score me the winning votes, landslide for that matter because Borno state will experience real election for the first time under the new 2022 electoral law . Don’t ask me to explain what I mean here. It’s a full interview on its own. I will oblige you answers in the future.
10. Nigeria is facing multi dimensional crises, what is your take on the prospects of a stable democracy in Nigeria,?
Answer; It’s a dangerous trend but since the majority are youth and the youth before now were deprived of jobs so they would be used as pawns on the political chessboard. Not anymore, they have wised up. They will not be used since they have Obedient movement which they believe in and are using the money they hardly have in funding it. They are therefore determined to reclaim their country and their lives. I don’t see any threat to democracy. I am confident that the country and the youth will win clearly come 2023 and their candidates will fix Nigeria for better, and peace shall return and so also businesses and prosperity…Amen!!!
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OPEN LETTER TO HIS EMINENCE, THE SULTAN OF SOKOTO ON CALL FOR EQUAL CITIZENSHIP, MUTUAL RESPECT IRRESPECTIVE OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION – BY DR MIKE ACHADU
A Benue born Philanthropist Dr Mike Achadu has call for an inclusive and equitable society devoid of tribalism, ethnicity and religious extremism to foster collective unity of purpose for national development
This is contained in an open letter to the Sultan of Sokoto his Eminence,
Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III and it reads in parts; “Have written this open letter to His Eminence, I believe conversations of this magnitude
should not be confined to private rooms believing that our future must be built on equal citizenship, mutual respect for each other;
“This is not an attempt to diminish the historical importance of Sultanate to bring any religious arguments but a letter of public interest with no strings attached;
“Nigerian is characterized by great minds of extreme civilizations with political institutions which emerged as a modern sovereign state with a well defined constitution that governs us with the sokoto Caliphate which represents the important chapters;
“Your eminence, Nigeria’s constitution does not establish either Islam or Christianity, your Eminence i believe your answer is No, because in the history of the territories that eventually became Nigeria does historical political authority confer permanent political ownership;?
Section 10 of the constitution provides that in 1903 the Northern and Southern Protectorates were subsequently amalgamated into religion, ethnic group and kingdom so, Nigeria has existed over decades with the conquest of the Sokoto Caliphate culminating in that history that deserves recognition and respect;
The Government of the Federation or State shall not adopt any religion as state, They establish principles of religious neutrality, freedom and equal citizenship, Your Eminence, this is where i believe our national conversation requires greater attention so that citizens may interpret exactly the same symbolically;
“This distinction became particularly visible in Nigeria’s debate over the Muslim-Muslim region.And therefore, defending constitutional religious neutrality is not an attack on Islam neither Christianity
“A political arrangement can have two realities simultaneously: That principle protects Muslims from Christians majoritaranism just as it protects Christians from Muslims and represent an important national compact of religion among others;
“Your eminence, Strategically politicians may see a particular political ticket as an effective coalition, an may ask if political cohesion belongs to right to religion and not also an attack on Christianity based on past pricidence;
“Who is to be represented when every Nigerian fundamental human rights cannot legitimately be protected and this provisions are not merely legal technicalities but strategic reality and symbolic reality;
His eminence, another question is the inclusive and exclusive presidential ticket and what does this say about the distribution of power?
“Electoral calculation , mechanism for consolidating support or means of improving Section 42 further provides constitutional protection against discrimination; Political parties rise and fall and the strength of one faith should not require the weakness of another.The security of one community should not depend upon the insecurity of another;
“Who controls the Legislature? eventually, citizens stop asking the most important question, When a politician speaks about religion, Nigerians may suspect political calculation and each community begins to measure it’s security by amount of power;This is why i believe the Sultanate has an extraordinary opportunity;
“There is a dangerous psychological temptation in deeply divided societies that gives your words a different weight as politics has become a permanent struggle for religious arithmetic that community posseses;
“When a respected religious leader speaks about peaceful co-existence the message carries a moral authority that politics often can not achieve and equally Christianity in Nigeria does not not require the political humiliation of another Nigerian simply because of religion;
“Nigerian can not become great by producing a permanent contest between Christian and Muslim and should not need each other’s permission to belong to any institutions;
,It can become great when both religion or communities began demanding something larger by the quality of governance, protection of all citizens,
“Your eminence, I believe Nigeria’s deepest problem is not simply that Muslims distrust religious suspicion which is often the language through which that distrust expresses itself through competent political power excercised for the common good of all citizens.The ultimate measure of political leadership should not be the religion of the person;
Your eminence, the future must be therefore bigger than both Christian and Muslim been the both argument whether been Hausa,Yoruba,Igbo,Tiv,Fulani or any other ethnic nationality.May Nigeria we leave our children be a country build solid foundation upon which a truly united Nigeria with profound respect for one another irrespective of religion, ethnicity, tribe among others
END
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POVERTY, REFORM AND THE PROBLEM OF CAUSATION
What the evidence says about hardship, recovery and the road ahead
By Tanimu Yakubu, Director-General, Budget Office of the Federation
The argument should begin where Nigerians live
Any serious discussion of the reforms must begin with what Nigerians can see and feel. Food is expensive. Transport takes a larger share of income. Electricity, rent and school bills press harder on household budgets. For many families, the question is not whether an economic indicator has improved. The question is whether their money can still carry them through the month.
That hardship is real, and we should say so without hesitation. But hardship by itself does not tell us what caused it, nor does it tell us whether reversing the reforms would make the country better off. Those are separate questions, and they require evidence rather than anger or reassurance.
The PUNCH report of 16 July 2026 presents poverty as persisting ‘despite reforms’. The phrase is striking, but it compresses several different issues into one. The World Bank and IMF material cited around the same debate records both a deeply vulnerable population and an economy that has returned to stronger real growth, built larger external buffers and moved away from some of the distortions that had accumulated before 2023.[1][2][3][4] The fair reading is therefore not that hardship has vanished, nor that reform has achieved nothing. It is that economic repair has begun while household relief has lagged behind.
A poverty crisis that did not begin in 2023
Nigeria did not enter May 2023 from a position of broad prosperity. Growth per person had been weak for years. Foreign exchange was scarce. Multiple exchange rates encouraged arbitrage. Fuel subsidy costs absorbed public resources. Insecurity kept farmers away from parts of the land. Electricity remained unreliable, transport was costly and too few Nigerians held secure formal jobs.[2] Poverty and vulnerability were already widespread before the present reform programme began.
That history is important because causation matters. A poverty problem built over many years cannot reasonably be attributed in full to policies introduced three years ago. But history cannot become an alibi. The exchange-rate adjustment and fuel-subsidy removal imposed immediate costs on people who had little room to absorb them. Imported goods and inputs became more expensive. Transport costs rose. Inflation eroded wages and savings. Those consequences belong in any honest account of the reforms.
We do not strengthen our case by appearing to argue that suffering is merely inherited. We strengthen it by acknowledging that necessary reforms have had painful consequences and then showing, with evidence, how our policies are reducing those consequences.
What the 79 per cent figure does — and does not — mean
The widely quoted figure that 79 per cent of Nigerians are poor or vulnerable is serious, but it needs to be read correctly. The World Bank’s Streamlined Country Diagnostic distinguishes those already below the poverty line from those who are near-poor or vulnerable to falling below it.[1][2] The number therefore describes a broad zone of insecurity, not a single poverty headcount in which every person is in the same condition.
The distinction does not soften the warning. A household only slightly above a poverty line can be pushed below it by a failed harvest, a medical bill, the loss of a job or another rise in food prices. What the figure shows is how narrow the margin of safety is for millions of Nigerians. It should not, however, be turned into proof that the reforms created a poverty stock that plainly predates them.
The economy has not collapsed, but households are still waiting
World Bank data show real GDP growth of about 4.0 per cent in 2025. The IMF estimated the same rate for 2025 and projected about 4.1 per cent for 2026. Gross international reserves were around US$46 billion at the end of 2025, up from about US$40 billion a year earlier, while net reserves also improved.[3][4] These figures are not a substitute for household welfare, but they are evidence against the claim that the economy has simply collapsed under reform.
The fall in GDP measured in current United States dollars also needs care. A sharp depreciation of the naira reduces the dollar value of naira output even when the volume of goods and services produced is rising. World Bank data can therefore show positive real growth alongside a lower current-dollar GDP.[3] The depreciation has real costs: imported inputs become more expensive and the external value of domestic incomes falls. But it is analytically wrong to treat a translation effect as if it were an equal fall in physical production.
None of this should be presented triumphantly. Nigerians do not eat reserves. A better fiscal balance does not put rice on a table by itself. The value of stabilisation lies in what it permits next: investment, production, employment, lower inflation and better public services.
Relief will come from making more things and moving them more cheaply
The most convincing answer to hardship will not come from another speech about macroeconomic stability. It will come when the supply of food, energy, transport and industrial inputs improves enough to lower costs in everyday life. That is where several large projects now approaching important stages become relevant.
The Kano-Jigawa-Katsina-Maradi railway is one example. We reported in May 2026 that the project was about 60 per cent complete, with delivery targeted for the end of 2027.[5] Its relevance is practical. Northern farmers and traders move large volumes over long distances on roads that are expensive to maintain and slow to use. A working freight corridor can lower haulage costs, widen markets for agricultural produce and improve trade through the northern border. The benefit of the railway will not be the number of kilometres of track. It will be the saving that eventually appears in the cost of moving grain, livestock, fertiliser and manufactured goods.
Lagos shows the same principle in urban transport. The first phases of the Blue and Red Lines are already carrying passengers while extensions continue.[6] For a commuter, the value of mass transit is measured in time, predictability and the share of income spent getting to work. For business, it is measured in a city that moves people with less dependence on road congestion and fuel-intensive transport. That is how infrastructure becomes an alleviative measure rather than a monument.
The Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline can have an even wider industrial effect. NNPC’s May 2026 report placed the mainline in advanced construction, installation and pre-commissioning, with early gas delivery to Abuja targeted in 2026.[7] Northern industry has long paid heavily for unreliable energy. Gas delivered into the corridor can support power generation and manufacturing, reduce dependence on expensive self-generation and make new investment more viable. The public will judge the pipeline not by its diameter, but by the factories it helps to run, the jobs it supports and the costs it helps to bring down.
Fertiliser shows what supply reform can mean on the farm
The fertiliser story is closer to the next harvest. Under the Presidential Fertiliser Initiative, more than 449,000 metric tonnes of inputs had been secured by May 2026, and we were on course for a 1.1 million metric tonne programme – roughly 22 million bags – supported by more than 90 operational blending plants.[8]
For years, the problem was not merely the existence of blending plants. A plant without raw materials is an idle factory. Information available to us indicates that, under the previous administration, some plants could secure enough raw materials for only about three months of production. We have moved to secure raw materials on a basis intended to sustain blending through the year. That change is important because it turns installed capacity into actual supply.
The difference is easy to understand. A plant that works for three months produces little and carries high unit costs. A plant supplied through the year can produce more, spread its costs over a larger volume and compete in a market with less scarcity. As availability rises, scarcity pricing becomes harder to sustain. Farmers gain better access to fertiliser when they need it, yields can improve, and the resulting increase in food supply should place downward pressure on prices in 2027.
The effect will not occur by proclamation. Fertiliser must reach farmers, crops must be planted, fields must be secured, harvests must be moved and markets must remain competitive. But this is a visible chain of cause and effect, and it is a stronger basis for expecting lower food prices than administrative price controls.
Rice mills: feed the mills, not the import market
The same supply argument applies to rice. About 300 rice mills are struggling, not because Nigeria lacks milling capacity, but because too many of them cannot obtain enough paddy to run steadily. When a mill operates below capacity, workers lose shifts, fixed costs are spread over fewer tonnes, farmers lose a dependable buyer and the price advantage of domestic processing is weakened. Importing finished parboiled rice may appear to close a supply gap quickly, but it also transfers the milling, transport, handling and much of the value added to producers outside Nigeria.
Our intervention should therefore address the shortage at its source. We need to stimulate local paddy production while permitting the importation of the raw-material shortfall where domestic supply is temporarily inadequate. The purpose of such imports would be to keep Nigerian mills running, not to displace them. As local output rises, the imported component should fall. That approach protects consumers from scarcity while preserving demand for Nigerian paddy and creating a stronger incentive for farmers to expand production.
For rural households, this distinction is consequential. A bag of finished rice imported into Nigeria creates little income for a farmer in Kebbi, Kano, Jigawa, Niger, Taraba or Ebonyi. Paddy supplied to a Nigerian mill does. It supports cultivation, aggregation, haulage, milling, packaging and distribution before the rice reaches the market. Keeping the roughly 300 mills supplied therefore attacks food scarcity and rural poverty at the same time. It raises domestic value added, strengthens the market available to farmers and retains more of every naira spent on rice within the Nigerian economy.
The objective is not permanent dependence on imported paddy. It is to prevent idle domestic capacity while we close the production gap. The durable answer remains higher yields, more irrigated cultivation, improved seed, fertiliser, extension services, secure farming communities and reliable links between growers and mills. But where a temporary shortfall exists, importing the missing raw material is economically preferable to importing the finished product and leaving Nigerian factories underused.
Security is also an economic policy
A farmer who cannot enter his field does not produce. A trader who fears the road moves less produce and charges more for risk. In this sense, the campaign against banditry is also a campaign against food inflation.
Security operations in 2026 restored access to a number of communities and allowed economic activity to resume in areas that had been badly disrupted.[10] It would be inaccurate to claim that banditry has disappeared from every affected area. The economic test is narrower and measurable: are more farmers returning to their land, are more hectares being cultivated, and is more produce reaching markets with fewer losses and delays?
Where the answer is yes, the effect should combine with better fertiliser availability. More cultivated land, higher input use and safer distribution can produce a larger harvest. If those gains hold through the 2026 farming cycle, consumers should begin to see more relief in food markets in 2027.
Why the alternative also has a cost
It is easy to compare the pain of reform with an imagined version of the old system in which prices stayed low and no one paid the difference. That system did not exist. The difference appeared elsewhere: in subsidy bills, foreign-exchange shortages, parallel-market premiums, arrears, inflation and public resources that could not be spent on other needs.
The real choice is not between painful reform and painless continuity. It is between completing a difficult correction and returning to arrangements that had become increasingly expensive to finance and easier to exploit. That does not excuse poor implementation. It means that the answer to hardship is to improve the reform, protect vulnerable households and accelerate the supply response, not to rebuild the distortions that made correction unavoidable.
The test now is whether Nigerians can feel the change
We should not ask Nigerians to celebrate numbers they cannot yet feel. Our better argument is to show where the numbers lead. Stronger public finances must produce roads, power, schools, health care and productive investment. Better reserves and a more orderly foreign-exchange market must support confidence, investment and a more stable supply of essential goods. The reforms will be vindicated in the lives of Nigerians, not in the vocabulary used to describe them.
These are not slogans. They are outcomes that can be checked. If fertiliser remains scarce despite year-round input supply, then our policy has not worked as intended. If rice mills remain idle for lack of paddy while finished parboiled rice is imported, we will have missed an opportunity to reduce scarcity through Nigerian production and rural incomes. If secured communities do not return to cultivation, the economic benefit has not been realised. If new rail and gas infrastructure do not reduce costs or expand productive activity, completion alone will not be enough. We must therefore measure success by what these interventions do to production, prices, jobs and household welfare.
Nigeria’s poverty crisis is older than the present reforms. Our reforms have nevertheless imposed real costs on households that were already under strain. Both facts can be true at the same time. The evidence also shows that real output has grown, external buffers have improved and important constraints on production are being addressed. Our responsibility now is to convert those gains into relief that is visible in markets, incomes and public services.
That is where the debate should end and our work should begin: not with a claim that hardship has disappeared, and not with the claim that reform has failed because hardship persists, but with a clear test. Are we producing more? Are we keeping our fertiliser plants and rice mills working? Are we moving goods more cheaply? Are farmers returning to their fields? Are factories operating for longer? Are families beginning to see prices ease and opportunities expand? Those are the questions by which Nigerians will judge us, and rightly so.
References
- Sami Tunji, “Poverty threatens 79% of Nigerians despite reforms – World Bank,” PUNCH, 16 July 2026.
- World Bank, Nigeria Country Partnership Framework FY2026–FY2032 and accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic, 2026.
- World Bank, World Development Indicators, Nigeria country data, including 2025 current-dollar GDP and real GDP growth; accessed August 2026.
- International Monetary Fund, Nigeria: 2026 Article IV Consultation — Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria, IMF Country Report No. 26/125, June 2026.
- State House, Abuja, “FG: Kano-Jigawa-Katsina to Maradi Railway Project 60 Percent Completed; Set for Delivery End of 2027,” 3 May 2026.
- Lagos State Government, official updates on Lagos Rail Mass Transit Blue and Red Lines, including operational Phase I services; 2024–2025.
- NNPC Limited, Monthly Report Summary, May 2026: AKK mainline construction, installation and pre-commissioning activities, with early gas delivery to Abuja targeted in 2026.
- State House, Abuja, “President Tinubu Hails MOFI, NADF for Strengthening Nigeria’s Fertiliser Value Chain, Supporting Food Security,” 18 June 2026.
- Ministry of Finance Incorporated / PFI-NPK reporting on early 2026 procurement and distribution of fertiliser raw materials to registered blending plants, June 2026.
- Official security reporting on continuing operations against banditry and kidnapping and the restoration of access to affected communities, 2025–2026.
News
EYESAN: THE RETURN OF THE NATIVES
By Charles Abakpa
There are times when the choice of a leader matters as much as the institution itself. This is particularly true in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, where decisions taken by regulators can affect production, investment, government revenue and the wider economy. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan’s leadership of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is beginning to show what years of experience within the industry can bring to a critical national institution.
Her emergence as the Chief Executive Officer of NUPRC can aptly be described as the return of the natives. This is because Eyesan has spent more than three decades working within Nigeria’s petroleum industry. She understands the system, its history, its challenges and, importantly, the expectations of operators and investors. She is therefore not learning the industry from the outside; she has been part of its growth and transformation for years.
Eyesan studied Economics at the University of Benin and joined the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in 1992. From her early days as a material traffic officer, she moved through planning, commercial and executive responsibilities before becoming Executive Vice President, Upstream, at NNPC Limited. Her rise through the system is a reflection of experience gained over many years.
That experience is now being brought to bear at the NUPRC, which has a major responsibility for regulating upstream petroleum operations in Nigeria. The commission oversees licensing, field development, technical compliance and other activities that determine how the country’s oil and gas resources are developed.
One of the clearest indications of her approach is the transparent conduct of the 2025 oil and gas licensing round, where 31 companies have emerged successful for 37 oil and gas blocks, following the submission of 200 bids by 143 companies.
The spread of interest in the blocks was equally significant. Bids were received for assets in established petroleum producing areas as well as frontier basins such as the Benue Trough, Chad Basin, Anambra Basin and Benin Basin. It showed that there is still considerable interest in Nigeria’s petroleum resources when investors have confidence in the rules and the process for allocating assets.
Eyesan’s insistence on financial discipline is another important aspect of the licensing exercise. Winning a block, under the new approach, should not be the end of the process. Successful companies are expected to meet their financial obligations and demonstrate the capacity to develop the assets. The application of the “drill or drop” principle also discourages the practice of sitting on acreage without meaningful activity.
Again, her experience in commercial negotiations has also prepared her for the responsibilities of the NUPRC. Before her present position, Eyesan was involved in major industry transactions, including Nigeria’s first natural gas liquids commercialisation and the renewal of deepwater production-sharing contracts. These were complex arrangements with significant implications for investment and production in the country.
What appears to be driving her current agenda is straightforward: increase production, reduce losses and make the regulatory process work faster. Eyesan has identified shut-in production, declining output and delays in bringing projects on stream as areas that require urgent attention. Rather than waiting only for new discoveries, her strategy includes bringing economically viable existing assets back into production.
She is also placing considerable emphasis on making regulation more predictable. The planned publication of service level agreements for major approvals, digital workflows for permits and reporting, and clearer timelines for regulatory decisions are aimed at reducing unnecessary delays. In an industry where delays can cost companies millions of dollars, faster and more predictable regulation can make a significant difference.
Her engagement with industry operators is another part of the strategy. Through the CCE–Operators Leadership Forum, the commission is creating a regular channel for discussing production restoration, approval timelines, infrastructure integrity, gas development and other pressing issues. Eyesan has also stressed the importance of proper hydrocarbon accounting, with a clear message that every barrel produced should be properly accounted for.
The 90-day programme introduced by the NUPRC under her watch is particularly important because it focuses on opportunities that can deliver results without unnecessary delay. Under the program, Field development plans that are near completion, well interventions, rig mobilisation and other quick win projects are being given attention. For a country working towards higher production levels, getting such projects moving can provide immediate gains.
Most importantly, Eyesan’s agenda is not limited to crude oil. She has always spoken about safety, host community benefits, governance, data integrity and responsible operations. Her approach suggests that increasing production must go hand in hand with improving the systems through which the industry operates.
There is also something significant about the emergence of Eyesan, another Nigerian woman at the centre of such an important national assignment. For decades, Nigerian women have shown that they can lead complex institutions and deliver results at home and internationally. Eyesan belongs to that tradition. Her performance inevitably brings to mind women such as Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, whose career has demonstrated the capacity of Nigerian women to compete and excel at the highest levels.
Of course, Eyesan has inherited an industry facing serious problems. Production has been constrained by insecurity, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, underinvestment and other longstanding challenges. But having someone with extensive institutional knowledge, commercial experience and a clear understanding of the upstream business gives the NUPRC a stronger hand in tackling these problems. Her presence has already been felt.
Her performance so far suggests that the return of the natives may indeed be good news for Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
Abakpa wrote this piece from Owukpa, Benue State.
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