***His subterranean Refuge, And the worst Case Scenario.
***Worries Over Likely Reactions Worry Govt.
***Candidates’ Strength By States Projection
By: Politics Editor
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential standard bearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC, is always confident of being the next President, no matter what people say about his chances.
While keeping his game plans close to his chest, he tells all those that care to listen, that, all the other candidates are wasting their times.
Even when people dismiss it as empty boast,Tinubu never hides his confidence in the face of occasional gaffes.
There were Political permutations recently that actually predict a likely Tinubu Presidency in the next elections due to certain subterranean factors.
Although analysts predict a runoff election in the 2023 Presidential elections, they failed to narrow down on the two likely contenders in the event of that.
They mostly argue that, in the checkered history of Nigeria’s democracy, the 2023 Presidential elections could be the most keenly contested and perhaps most difficult to predict it’s outcome.
The situation apllies in many states for the Governorship and legislative elections, in the face of the waning influence of Governors under the new electoral act.
These are coming against emerging violent trends and fears of a likely reaction by the youths who prefer another candidate, other than Tinubu.
The electoral umpire has given assurances that the elections will turn out to be the best in Nigeria’s history, but did not fail to express worries over certain violent trends, even with a peace treaty in place: signed by all parties.
The Inspector General of Police, Alkali Baba has repeatedly warned against violence and assured if police preparedness to ensure violent free polls.
National Trail has been investigating the likely factors that could shape and reshape the elections, and the likely reactions that may trail the elections.
Investigations reveal that, outside the conventional parameters, including, the crowd at rallies, the manifestoes and the influence of perceived seasoned political players, the elections may be determined by other factors.
Although our findings reveal that, 2023 Presidential election favours the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu: the other candidates may characteristically kick. The outcome is without recourse to the perceived minuses against Tinubu, including the many controversies docking his candidature and the dismal performance of the APC administration under Muhammadu Buhari.
We found out that, it could have been anybody’s game, if the crowd at the rallies of the political parties is the only yardstick, as reports indicate difficulty in telling which party pulled the largest crowd and which crowd is genuine or rented.
The crowd at each of the rallies of all the parties have been almost overwhelming.
In the same way, if party manifestos are to be the determinant of who wins: it will be impossible to say which of the documents could give victory: as each of the parties parade beautifully crafted manifestos for their standard bearers; laced in the best of political languages.
If big names could win elections, the caliber of politicians on board the campaign councils of each of the political parties also make it too close to call, as each one of them parade seasoned strategists.
The commonality of what seems to give political parties a semblance of acceptance makes predictions dicey, but our correspondents’ findings reveal that , outside the conventionally known factors that sway elections, political opinion is being shaped and reshaped by other subterranean factors.
To this end, most electorates seem to have formed their opinions to the effect that their positions remain sacrosanct untill the elections.
To this end,the sentiments that brought President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, into power in 2015, are still prevalent, and most people still prefer the APC, irrespective of the candidate on the ballot this time around.
While it may be a truism that both the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the APC, for example, have had their turns in government and Nigerians have the opportunity to rate their performances: the APC is more likely to take the day, given the power and resources at its disposal.
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of Labour party, may have large financial war chests, but their individual resources may not be a match to the state resources available to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his party the APC.
This is against the background that, APC could could deploy all instruments of coercion as well as resources available to it, to ensure it retains power.
Again, unlike the PDP, the fighting spirit of the APC is such that, it never says die, and the party may fight to finish.
Against arguments in some quarters that, with the likes of Dino Melaye and Daniel Bwala, as arrowheads of the PDP propaganda:having been part of the APC machinery, not even the compliments by Charles Aniagwu: an authority in propaganda; may alter things, as the APC seems to have already created a narrative, which the PDP is fighting hard to deconstruct before the elections.
Of course, each party have created narratives based on religion, tribe and region, all of which seem to have assumed lives of their own in the political narrative, and these factors may also sway the votes in favour of Tinubu.
Findings reveal that, barring any changes to the current mood, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has the upper hand in Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Rivers and Gombe states.
Atiku Abubakar is likely to take Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Plateau, Sokoto,Bayelsa, Edo, Oyo, Osun, CrossRivers, Delta, while Peter Obi is more likely to pocket, Anambra, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, the FCT, and Abia states, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will escape with Kano in his kitty.
These projections were based on the strength if the parties and the mood of citizens in the build up to the elections.
While Tinubu May dominate in the states listed as his stronghold, he is more likely to score the requisite 25% in states like Bauchi, Sokoto, Kano, Plateau, FCT, Oyo, Osun, Taraba, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia and Edo states.
Atiku is likely to get 25% in almost all the states across the Federation, but may not get the majority votes, even as Peter Obi may come close to getting the majority votes, but may fail in getting the 25% requisite geographical votes.
With the indicators that Tinubu could win in the first round of votes, another curious angle is the likely run off between Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In the event of any of the scenario above, the government must put in place measures that will safeguard the unity of Nigeria: most of our respondents admonish.