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2023: How Tinubu May Still Win Election

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***His subterranean Refuge, And the worst Case Scenario.
***Worries Over Likely Reactions Worry Govt.
***Candidates’ Strength By States Projection
By: Politics Editor
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential standard bearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC, is always confident of being the next President, no matter what people say about his chances.
While keeping his game plans close to his chest, he tells all those that care to listen, that, all the other candidates are wasting their times.
Even when people dismiss it as empty boast,Tinubu never hides his confidence in the face of occasional gaffes.
There were Political permutations recently that actually predict a likely Tinubu Presidency in the next elections due to certain subterranean factors.
Although analysts predict a runoff election in the 2023 Presidential elections, they failed to narrow down on the two likely contenders in the event of that.
They mostly argue that, in the checkered history of Nigeria’s democracy, the 2023 Presidential elections could be the most keenly contested and perhaps most difficult to predict it’s outcome.
The situation apllies in many states for the Governorship and legislative elections, in the face of the waning influence of Governors under the new electoral act.
These are coming against emerging violent trends and fears of a likely reaction by the youths who prefer another candidate, other than Tinubu.
The electoral umpire has given assurances that the elections will turn out to be the best in Nigeria’s history, but did not fail to express worries over certain violent trends, even with a peace treaty in place: signed by all parties.
The Inspector General of Police, Alkali Baba has repeatedly warned against violence and assured if police preparedness to ensure violent free polls.
National Trail has been investigating the likely factors that could shape and reshape the elections, and the likely reactions that may trail the elections.
Investigations reveal that, outside the conventional parameters, including, the crowd at rallies, the manifestoes and the influence of perceived seasoned political players, the elections may be determined by other factors.
Although our findings reveal that, 2023 Presidential election favours the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu: the other candidates may characteristically kick. The outcome is without recourse to the perceived minuses against Tinubu, including the many controversies docking his candidature and the dismal performance of the APC administration under Muhammadu Buhari.
We found out that, it could have been anybody’s game, if the crowd at the rallies of the political parties is the only yardstick, as reports indicate difficulty in telling which party pulled the largest crowd and which crowd is genuine or rented.
The crowd at each of the rallies of all the parties have been almost overwhelming.
In the same way, if party manifestos are to be the determinant of who wins: it will be impossible to say which of the documents could give victory: as each of the parties parade beautifully crafted manifestos for their standard bearers; laced in the best of political languages.
If big names could win elections, the caliber of politicians on board the campaign councils of each of the political parties also make it too close to call, as each one of them parade seasoned strategists.
The commonality of what seems to give political parties a semblance of acceptance makes predictions dicey, but our correspondents’ findings reveal that , outside the conventionally known factors that sway elections, political opinion is being shaped and reshaped by other subterranean factors.
To this end, most electorates seem to have formed their opinions to the effect that their positions remain sacrosanct untill the elections.
To this end,the sentiments that brought President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, into power in 2015, are still prevalent, and most people still prefer the APC, irrespective of the candidate on the ballot this time around.
While it may be a truism that both the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the APC, for example, have had their turns in government and Nigerians have the opportunity to rate their performances: the APC is more likely to take the day, given the power and resources at its disposal.
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of Labour party, may have large financial war chests, but their individual resources may not be a match to the state resources available to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his party the APC.
This is against the background that, APC could could deploy all instruments of coercion as well as resources available to it, to ensure it retains power.
Again, unlike the PDP, the fighting spirit of the APC is such that, it never says die, and the party may fight to finish.
Against arguments in some quarters that, with the likes of Dino Melaye and Daniel Bwala, as arrowheads of the PDP propaganda:having been part of the APC machinery, not even the compliments by Charles Aniagwu: an authority in propaganda; may alter things, as the APC seems to have already created a narrative, which the PDP is fighting hard to deconstruct before the elections.
Of course, each party have created narratives based on religion, tribe and region, all of which seem to have assumed lives of their own in the political narrative, and these factors may also sway the votes in favour of Tinubu.
Findings reveal that, barring any changes to the current mood, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has the upper hand in Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Rivers and Gombe states.
Atiku Abubakar is likely to take Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Plateau, Sokoto,Bayelsa, Edo, Oyo, Osun, CrossRivers, Delta, while Peter Obi is more likely to pocket, Anambra, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, the FCT, and Abia states, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will escape with Kano in his kitty.
These projections were based on the strength if the parties and the mood of citizens in the build up to the elections.
While Tinubu May dominate in the states listed as his stronghold, he is more likely to score the requisite 25% in states like Bauchi, Sokoto, Kano, Plateau, FCT, Oyo, Osun, Taraba, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia and Edo states.
Atiku is likely to get 25% in almost all the states across the Federation, but may not get the majority votes, even as Peter Obi may come close to getting the majority votes, but may fail in getting the 25% requisite geographical votes.
With the indicators that Tinubu could win in the first round of votes, another curious angle is the likely run off between Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In the event of any of the scenario above, the government must put in place measures that will safeguard the unity of Nigeria: most of our respondents admonish.

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The Most Shocking A/Court ‘Judgment’ in Nigerian History: An unfortunate precedent that should not be allowed to stand

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The last is yet to be heard of wide ranging ex-parte orders as this time around, the charade has moved to the Court of Appeal, Lagos Division. In the case of FBN Quest & Another vs. Nestoil & Others, the Court of Appeal’s ex parte orders are not only egregious but a chilling sign of judicial capture, smacking of dirty practices at best and corruption at worst.

On Thursday, 27th November 2025, at exactly 2:00pm, Justice Yargata Nimpar delivered a ‘ruling ’ that appeared like a thief in the night, a ghost and unscheduled, the said decision came upon a Motion Ex-parte which was not heard not argued in open court, yet it surfaced, fully written, signed, stamped, and delivered as though it had lived a full life on the Court of Appeal docket.

For many Nigerians, the judiciary has again weathered the storms. Veterans of the legal system describe this episode as “a daylight heist… a judicial armed robbery without guns.”

The controversies over wide ranging ex-parte applications, it would seem, has found its way to the Court of appeal, an intermediate court with limited original jurisdiction as donated to it by statute.

In this instance, barely two weeks ago, we reported the ex-parte orders against NESTOIL and the other defendants listed in the suit before the Federal High Court which led to the transfer of the suit to another judge.

The said interim orders were vacated by effluxion of time, being that ex-parte orders last for only 14 days.

The court however ordered parties to maintain status quo and adjourned the Motion on Notice for hearing by the consent of the parties. That Motion is still pending before the Federal High Court.

It would seem that in order to frustrate that pending Motion, the Plaintiffs somehow filed a similar application to the Court of Appeal which was granted an order ex-parte directing the Lower Court not to take any further steps, including determining the pending application filed by Plaintiffs (now Appellants).

This magically resurrected, fast-tracked application seem to have been rubber-stamped at the fictional “Appeal Bench of Shadows,” as insiders have begun calling it.

A CASE THAT NEVER EXISTED — YET RECEIVED A JUDGMENT

Our Judiciary correspondent gathered that when the court’s official list for the day was released, nothing seemed amiss. No controversial cases. No unexpected hearings.

But somewhere inside the dusty chambers of bureaucracy, a secret file was already being prepared and by 2pm, a judgment carrying the signatures of an entire appeal panel had surfaced — even though none of them had appeared in open court and when the case itself had never been argued before any High Court, making an appellate ruling legally impossible.

By evening, whispers had turned into rumblings. Court workers who handled the mysterious document reported unusual instructions: No public sitting; No mention on the court list; No access to case filings; No digital record and No audio recording of proceedings. Yet an order was made retrospectively to undo a completed act! which is yet another impossibility in law, because the exparte order cannot restore what has been already executed.

“It was like dealing with a ghost file,” one clerk said. “It appeared from nowhere and disappeared into official archives as though it had always existed.”

This judgment, once delivered, spread like wildfire, with legal scholars calling it “a constitutional impossibility.” Veterans said they had never seen anything similar since the 1970s.

Enquiries from our judiciary correspondents indicate that an application can only be hinged upon a valid Notice of Appeal against a decision of a lower court before any application can be entertained at the Court of Appeal.

Further Investigations by our judiciary correspondent reveals that no such Notice of Appeal has been filed nor served on the respondents; no parties have been invited to Settle Records and no Records of Appeal have been transmitted.

One wonders the platform or upon which grounds the ex-parte order was made, observed one senior lawyer, especially as a similar pending application filed by the Appellants has been adjourned for Hearing by the Federal High Court.

Furthermore, the case at the trial court before Justice Osiagor has not been heard on its merits, which documents was placed before the appellate court and all applications before the judge has not been heard or is the court of appeal now a trial court.

A JUDICIARY AT A CROSSROADS

Public outrage rose quickly. Lawyers described the situation as “a hijacking of justice by shadowy interests.” Civil society groups demanded explanations.

A Judiciary where justice can be manufactured behind closed doors…a legal system where influence not merit, decides outcomes…and an institution tested by the weight of powerful external forces, et cetera should not be allowed to thrive.

AN ERA-DEFINING SCANDAL

This judgement will stand as one of the most dramatic challenges ever faced by Nigeria’s justice system. The shockwaves has rippled far beyond the courtroom — touching politics, business, security agencies, and public trust.

One thing is clear: This is the kind of judicial earthquake that rewrites history, shakes institutions, and forces a nation to confront the truths it fears the most. Our judicial correspondences were able to get an incline of the ex-parte orders made by the Court of Appeal as follows:

  1. AN ORDER of interim restorative injunction reversing all steps taken by the Respondents and/or persons purporting to act on the instructions of the Respondents and which steps or actions were taken pursuant to the order of the Federal High Court coram Osiagor, J made on the 20th day of November 2025 pending the hearing and determination of the Appellants’ Motion on Notice filed on the 26th day of November 2025.
  2. AN ORDER of interim injunction restraining the Respondents, their agents, servants, affiliates, and privies from interfering with and interrupting the Receiver/Manager in the performance of his duties pending the hearing and determination of the Appellants’ Motion on Notice filed on 26th November 2025.
  3. AN ORDER staying further proceedings at the lower court pending the hearing and determination of the Appellants’ Motion on Notice filed on the 26th November 2025.

A SHOCKING DEPARTURE FROM JUDICIAL NORMS

Therefore, the Lagos Court of Appeal’s decision to grant ex parte orders in FBN Quest & Another vs. Nestoil & Others stunned the legal community as ex-parte rulings are meant for rare emergencies and hardly exercised by appellate courts. By acting without hearing both sides, while the matter was already before the Federal High Court, the Court of Appeal has undermined the principle of natural justice and distorted its own role.

NIGERIAN IMAGE AT RISK

At a time when Nigeria is striving to reposition its global reputation, this case sends the wrong message. It portrays the country as one where courts can be hijacked by private interests, where fairness is discarded, and where corruption lurks behind judicial robes. For investors and international partners, it reinforces damaging stereotypes of weak institutions and compromised justice.

AN URGENT CALL FOR INVESTIGATION

These orders are not just irregular — they are evidence of judicial capture. They must be investigated urgently. The Chief Justice of Nigeria, the National Judicial Council, the President of the Court of Appeal and the Nigerian Bar Association cannot remain silent. If appellate courts become arenas for ex-parte adventures, Nigeria’s justice system risks collapse under the weight of manipulation.

CLOSING NOTE

The Court of Appeal’s conduct in FBN Quest & Another vs. Nestoil & Others is more than a misstep, it is a warning sign of judicial capture. If Nigeria is serious about restoring its image and strengthening democracy, this case must be investigated, accountability enforced, and reforms implemented. Anything less would be an abdication of the judiciary’s sacred duty to uphold justice. We must not allow that to happen.
A very Senior lawyer emphasize that the exparte order of the court of appeal lagos division in Nestoil has the possibility of eroding administrative control of Heads of superior Court from assigning or re assigning matters within their respective courts. Furthermore both the President of the Court of Appeal and the Chief Justice of Nigeria may not have the authority to disband a panel and re- constitute another panel over any matter in their respective courts. This decision is a total anarchy to the judiciary and urgent steps must be taken to vacate the strange Court of appeal exparte order.

The conduct of the court of appeal justices is not excusable anywhere in the world and it’s indeed has brought the court of Appeal justices who constituted the panel to ridicule

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Pius Akutah’s Alleged Fraud at Nigerian Shippers Council Uncovered

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Investigations by Nigerian Concord Newspaper reveal that the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Shippers Council, Mr. Pius Akutah, has allegedly misappropriated public funds for a lavish lifestyle.

According to our findings, within months of assuming office, Akutah allegedly purchased a bulletproof SUV valued at approximately N850 million. In addition, he is reported to have acquired over twenty exotic SUVs for use as a convoy.

Akutah is also said to have acquired multiple high-value properties, including three in Abuja’s Maitama and Asokoro districts worth over N2 billion, and two in Lagos’ Banana Island valued at N1.8 billion. These acquisitions appear far beyond the scope of his official salary and allowances.

Further investigation suggests that Akutah may be using public funds to support political ambitions, including allegedly grooming militants across 23 local government areas in Benue State for a potential 2027 gubernatorial bid.

Staff of the Shippers Council reportedly claim that Akutah frequently accesses the council’s treasury without proper authorization. Some insiders have indicated that a petition will soon be filed with the EFCC, ICPC, and the Presidency to report his alleged misconduct.

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Pius Akutah’s Alleged Fraud at Nigerian Shippers Council Uncovered

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Investigations by Nigerian Concord Newspaper reveal that the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Shippers Council, Mr. Pius Akutah, has allegedly misappropriated public funds for a lavish lifestyle.

According to our findings, within months of assuming office, Akutah allegedly purchased a bulletproof SUV valued at approximately N850 million. In addition, he is reported to have acquired over twenty exotic SUVs for use as a convoy.

Akutah is also said to have acquired multiple high-value properties, including three in Abuja’s Maitama and Asokoro districts worth over N2 billion, and two in Lagos’ Banana Island valued at N1.8 billion. These acquisitions appear far beyond the scope of his official salary and allowances.

Further investigation suggests that Akutah may be using public funds to support political ambitions, including allegedly grooming militants across 23 local government areas in Benue State for a potential 2027 gubernatorial bid.

Staff of the Shippers Council reportedly claim that Akutah frequently accesses the council’s treasury without proper authorization. Some insiders have indicated that a petition will soon be filed with the EFCC, ICPC, and the Presidency to report his alleged misconduct.

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