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2023: How Tinubu May Still Win Election

***His subterranean Refuge, And the worst Case Scenario.
***Worries Over Likely Reactions Worry Govt.
***Candidates’ Strength By States Projection
By: Politics Editor
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential standard bearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC, is always confident of being the next President, no matter what people say about his chances.
While keeping his game plans close to his chest, he tells all those that care to listen, that, all the other candidates are wasting their times.
Even when people dismiss it as empty boast,Tinubu never hides his confidence in the face of occasional gaffes.
There were Political permutations recently that actually predict a likely Tinubu Presidency in the next elections due to certain subterranean factors.
Although analysts predict a runoff election in the 2023 Presidential elections, they failed to narrow down on the two likely contenders in the event of that.
They mostly argue that, in the checkered history of Nigeria’s democracy, the 2023 Presidential elections could be the most keenly contested and perhaps most difficult to predict it’s outcome.
The situation apllies in many states for the Governorship and legislative elections, in the face of the waning influence of Governors under the new electoral act.
These are coming against emerging violent trends and fears of a likely reaction by the youths who prefer another candidate, other than Tinubu.
The electoral umpire has given assurances that the elections will turn out to be the best in Nigeria’s history, but did not fail to express worries over certain violent trends, even with a peace treaty in place: signed by all parties.
The Inspector General of Police, Alkali Baba has repeatedly warned against violence and assured if police preparedness to ensure violent free polls.
National Trail has been investigating the likely factors that could shape and reshape the elections, and the likely reactions that may trail the elections.
Investigations reveal that, outside the conventional parameters, including, the crowd at rallies, the manifestoes and the influence of perceived seasoned political players, the elections may be determined by other factors.
Although our findings reveal that, 2023 Presidential election favours the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu: the other candidates may characteristically kick. The outcome is without recourse to the perceived minuses against Tinubu, including the many controversies docking his candidature and the dismal performance of the APC administration under Muhammadu Buhari.
We found out that, it could have been anybody’s game, if the crowd at the rallies of the political parties is the only yardstick, as reports indicate difficulty in telling which party pulled the largest crowd and which crowd is genuine or rented.
The crowd at each of the rallies of all the parties have been almost overwhelming.
In the same way, if party manifestos are to be the determinant of who wins: it will be impossible to say which of the documents could give victory: as each of the parties parade beautifully crafted manifestos for their standard bearers; laced in the best of political languages.
If big names could win elections, the caliber of politicians on board the campaign councils of each of the political parties also make it too close to call, as each one of them parade seasoned strategists.
The commonality of what seems to give political parties a semblance of acceptance makes predictions dicey, but our correspondents’ findings reveal that , outside the conventionally known factors that sway elections, political opinion is being shaped and reshaped by other subterranean factors.
To this end, most electorates seem to have formed their opinions to the effect that their positions remain sacrosanct untill the elections.
To this end,the sentiments that brought President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, into power in 2015, are still prevalent, and most people still prefer the APC, irrespective of the candidate on the ballot this time around.
While it may be a truism that both the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the APC, for example, have had their turns in government and Nigerians have the opportunity to rate their performances: the APC is more likely to take the day, given the power and resources at its disposal.
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of Labour party, may have large financial war chests, but their individual resources may not be a match to the state resources available to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his party the APC.
This is against the background that, APC could could deploy all instruments of coercion as well as resources available to it, to ensure it retains power.
Again, unlike the PDP, the fighting spirit of the APC is such that, it never says die, and the party may fight to finish.
Against arguments in some quarters that, with the likes of Dino Melaye and Daniel Bwala, as arrowheads of the PDP propaganda:having been part of the APC machinery, not even the compliments by Charles Aniagwu: an authority in propaganda; may alter things, as the APC seems to have already created a narrative, which the PDP is fighting hard to deconstruct before the elections.
Of course, each party have created narratives based on religion, tribe and region, all of which seem to have assumed lives of their own in the political narrative, and these factors may also sway the votes in favour of Tinubu.
Findings reveal that, barring any changes to the current mood, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has the upper hand in Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Rivers and Gombe states.
Atiku Abubakar is likely to take Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Plateau, Sokoto,Bayelsa, Edo, Oyo, Osun, CrossRivers, Delta, while Peter Obi is more likely to pocket, Anambra, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, the FCT, and Abia states, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will escape with Kano in his kitty.
These projections were based on the strength if the parties and the mood of citizens in the build up to the elections.
While Tinubu May dominate in the states listed as his stronghold, he is more likely to score the requisite 25% in states like Bauchi, Sokoto, Kano, Plateau, FCT, Oyo, Osun, Taraba, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia and Edo states.
Atiku is likely to get 25% in almost all the states across the Federation, but may not get the majority votes, even as Peter Obi may come close to getting the majority votes, but may fail in getting the 25% requisite geographical votes.
With the indicators that Tinubu could win in the first round of votes, another curious angle is the likely run off between Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In the event of any of the scenario above, the government must put in place measures that will safeguard the unity of Nigeria: most of our respondents admonish.
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Dogara Mourns Victims of Air Force Plane Crash, Condole President Tinubu, Military
Former Speaker of the House of Representatives and Chairman of the Board of the National Credit Guarantee Company Limited (NCGC), Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara, CFR has expressed deep sorrow over the Nigerian Air Force aircraft crash that claimed the lives of 32 persons near Igbokoda, Ondo State. Dogara described the tragedy as a heartbreaking loss to the nation, noting that the deaths of the victims have left a painful void in the country’s defence and security community.
In a statement, the former Speaker extended his condolences to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, the Nigerian Air Force, and the families of those who perished in the unfortunate incident.
He said the nation shares in the grief of the bereaved families and the Armed Forces at this time of immense sorrow, adding that the sacrifices of those who lost their lives in service to the country will not be forgotten. “The nation mourns with the families of the deceased and stands in solidarity with the Armed Forces during this difficult period,” Dogara stated.
He also commiserated with the Chief of Air Staff, officers and men of the Nigerian Air Force, praying that God grants them the fortitude to bear the painful loss.
According to him, moments such as this call for national unity, reflection and collective support for the families and institutions affected by the tragedy.
Dogara paid tribute to the victims, describing them as patriotic Nigerians whose commitment and service contributed to the security and stability of the nation. He further applauded the efforts of emergency responders, rescue teams and all personnel involved in the aftermath of the crash, commending their courage and professionalism under difficult circumstances.
The former Speaker prayed God to comfort their families, friends and colleagues.
He also offered prayers for the safety and protection of members of the Armed Forces and for continued peace, unity and progress in Nigeria.
The Nigerian Air Force aircraft crashed near Igbokoda, Ondo State, resulting in the death of 32 persons and plunging the nation into mourning. Authorities are yet to make public the cause of the accident as investigations continue.
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Centre for Credible Reforms Lauds Transparency in Ongoing Insurance Sector Reforms
The Centre for Credible Reforms and Institutional Accountability (CCRIA) has commended the Commissioner for Insurance and Chief Executive Officer of the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), Mr Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, for promoting transparency and accountability in the ongoing reforms of Nigeria’s insurance industry.
The centre said the implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025 had ushered in a new phase of development for the sector, with stronger regulatory standards, improved capitalisation and greater emphasis on protecting policyholders.
Dr Aminu Abubakar Aminu, president of the centre, said this in a statement at the weekend.
Aminu commended President Bola Tinubu and the National Assembly for the enactment of NIIRA, describing the legislation as a major step towards addressing longstanding challenges in the insurance industry.
“The enactment of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act is a significant milestone in the development of Nigeria’s insurance sector. We commend Mr President and the National Assembly for recognising the need to modernise the legal and regulatory framework governing the industry. NIIRA provides the foundation for an insurance sector that is better capitalised, more accountable, more responsive to policyholders and better equipped to contribute meaningfully to the Nigerian economy,” he said.
The centre also praised Omosehin for his leadership of NAICOM, saying his extensive experience as an insurance professional had positioned him to effectively implement the new regulatory framework.
“We consider the appointment of Mr Olusegun Ayo Omosehin as Commissioner for Insurance and Chief Executive Officer of NAICOM a timely and appropriate decision. He is a seasoned insurance professional with many years of experience in the industry, and his understanding of the sector gives him the practical knowledge required to lead an important reform process of this nature. We commend him for the direction he has provided since assuming office and for his commitment to strengthening the industry,” Aminu said.
According to the centre, the ongoing recapitalisation exercise was among the important steps taken to strengthen the financial capacity of insurance companies and improve their ability to meet obligations to policyholders.
Aminu said the reforms were already producing early gains and should be sustained through consistent implementation.
“The early developments under NIIRA demonstrate that the reform is not merely a legislative exercise but a process capable of producing measurable improvements in the industry. Stronger capital requirements, improved supervision and greater attention to policyholder protection will ultimately create an insurance market that Nigerians can trust. We encourage NAICOM to remain focused on the implementation of the Act and to continue providing clear guidance to operators and other stakeholders,” he said.
The centre noted that the reforms would also help deepen insurance penetration and strengthen the industry’s contribution to national economic development.
It urged insurance companies, brokers, reinsurers, professional bodies and other stakeholders to embrace the new framework and work with NAICOM to achieve the objectives of the legislation.
“The success of NIIRA will require the cooperation of every stakeholder in the insurance ecosystem. Operators must see the reforms as an opportunity to strengthen their institutions, improve their services and regain the confidence of Nigerians. A well-regulated insurance industry can mobilise long-term capital, protect businesses and households against risks and support investment and economic growth. These are benefits that go beyond the insurance industry itself,” Aminu said.
Aminu emphasized that the centre was particularly encouraged by the emphasis on policyholder protection under the new framework, noting that public confidence remained critical to the growth of insurance in Nigeria.
He said Nigerians should be able to purchase insurance products with confidence that operators had the financial capacity and institutional structures required to honour legitimate claims.
The president further urged NAICOM to sustain its engagement with stakeholders while ensuring that the provisions of NIIRA were implemented transparently and consistently.
“What is required at this stage is continuity, professionalism and commitment to the objectives of the law. The reforms must be sustained beyond the initial implementation period so that the gains can become permanent features of the industry. We believe NAICOM, under the leadership of Mr Ayo Omosehin, has an important responsibility to ensure that the momentum is maintained, and we encourage all stakeholders to support the commission in delivering on this mandate,” he said.
The centre said the successful implementation of NIIRA would strengthen confidence in the insurance sector, improve the protection available to policyholders and position the industry to play a greater role in Nigeria’s economic transformation.
It also called for continued collaboration between NAICOM, insurance operators and other stakeholders to ensure that the objectives of the new law were fully achieved.
News
Hon. Amb. Jim Okolo Promotes Nigeria’s Vast Potential at New York Independence Day Celebration
As Nigerians from across the United States gathered in Manhattan to celebrate Nigeria’s Independence Day in grand style, Hon. Amb. Jim Okolo used the occasion to share an inspiring message about Nigeria’s immense possibilities, rich cultural heritage, and promising future.
Speaking with members of the media during the colourful celebration, Hon. Amb. Okolo described Nigeria as one of the most blessed nations in the world, endowed with abundant natural resources, a dynamic population, and a cultural heritage that continues to earn global recognition.
According to him, Nigeria possesses enormous deposits of valuable minerals and other natural resources that, if fully harnessed, can accelerate economic growth and create prosperity for millions of citizens. He noted that the country is strategically positioned to become a leading destination for investment in mining, agriculture, technology, manufacturing, and infrastructure development.
Beyond its natural wealth, Hon. Amb. Okolo emphasized that Nigeria’s greatest strength remains its people. He praised the creativity, resilience, intelligence, and entrepreneurial spirit of Nigerians, pointing out that Nigerian professionals, innovators, academics, and business leaders continue to excel in various sectors across the world.
The respected diplomat also spoke passionately about Nigeria’s unique cultural identity. From the colourful festivals of its diverse ethnic groups to its globally celebrated music, fashion, literature, cuisine, and film industry, he described Nigeria as a nation whose cultural influence extends far beyond its borders.
He noted that Nigeria’s diversity is one of its greatest treasures, bringing together hundreds of ethnic nationalities with distinct traditions and languages that collectively form a vibrant and unified national identity.
While addressing questions on security, Hon. Amb. Okolo maintained that although Nigeria faces certain security challenges, the situation is not always as severe as often portrayed by social media discussions and sections of the international media. He stressed that millions of Nigerians continue to live, work, study, invest, and contribute meaningfully to society every day.
He called on the international community, investors, and members of the diaspora to focus on Nigeria’s strengths, opportunities, and achievements rather than allowing negative narratives to define the country’s image.
“Nigeria remains a land of opportunity, innovation, and hope. It is a nation blessed with extraordinary human capital, abundant resources, a rich cultural heritage, and a people whose determination and resilience continue to inspire the world,” he said.
The celebration was attended by several distinguished personalities, including the United Nations Secretary-General, Hajia Amina Mohammed, the Nigerian Ambassador to the United Nations, diplomats, business leaders, community stakeholders, and prominent members of the Nigerian diaspora.
The event transformed parts of Manhattan into a vibrant showcase of Nigerian pride, featuring cultural exhibitions, traditional performances, business networking sessions, authentic Nigerian cuisine, and displays highlighting the country’s achievements and diversity.
Adding excitement to the festivities were thrilling performances by internationally acclaimed Nigerian music stars Patoranking, Runtown, and BNXN (formerly known as Buju), who entertained thousands of attendees and demonstrated the growing global appeal of Nigerian music.
As the celebration came to a close, the message from Hon. Amb. Jim Okolo resonated strongly among participants: that Nigeria is far more than the challenges often highlighted in headlines. It is a nation blessed with extraordinary talent, vast opportunities, cultural richness, and the potential to achieve even greater success on the global stage.
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