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2023: How Tinubu May Still Win Election

***His subterranean Refuge, And the worst Case Scenario.
***Worries Over Likely Reactions Worry Govt.
***Candidates’ Strength By States Projection
By: Politics Editor
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential standard bearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC, is always confident of being the next President, no matter what people say about his chances.
While keeping his game plans close to his chest, he tells all those that care to listen, that, all the other candidates are wasting their times.
Even when people dismiss it as empty boast,Tinubu never hides his confidence in the face of occasional gaffes.
There were Political permutations recently that actually predict a likely Tinubu Presidency in the next elections due to certain subterranean factors.
Although analysts predict a runoff election in the 2023 Presidential elections, they failed to narrow down on the two likely contenders in the event of that.
They mostly argue that, in the checkered history of Nigeria’s democracy, the 2023 Presidential elections could be the most keenly contested and perhaps most difficult to predict it’s outcome.
The situation apllies in many states for the Governorship and legislative elections, in the face of the waning influence of Governors under the new electoral act.
These are coming against emerging violent trends and fears of a likely reaction by the youths who prefer another candidate, other than Tinubu.
The electoral umpire has given assurances that the elections will turn out to be the best in Nigeria’s history, but did not fail to express worries over certain violent trends, even with a peace treaty in place: signed by all parties.
The Inspector General of Police, Alkali Baba has repeatedly warned against violence and assured if police preparedness to ensure violent free polls.
National Trail has been investigating the likely factors that could shape and reshape the elections, and the likely reactions that may trail the elections.
Investigations reveal that, outside the conventional parameters, including, the crowd at rallies, the manifestoes and the influence of perceived seasoned political players, the elections may be determined by other factors.
Although our findings reveal that, 2023 Presidential election favours the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu: the other candidates may characteristically kick. The outcome is without recourse to the perceived minuses against Tinubu, including the many controversies docking his candidature and the dismal performance of the APC administration under Muhammadu Buhari.
We found out that, it could have been anybody’s game, if the crowd at the rallies of the political parties is the only yardstick, as reports indicate difficulty in telling which party pulled the largest crowd and which crowd is genuine or rented.
The crowd at each of the rallies of all the parties have been almost overwhelming.
In the same way, if party manifestos are to be the determinant of who wins: it will be impossible to say which of the documents could give victory: as each of the parties parade beautifully crafted manifestos for their standard bearers; laced in the best of political languages.
If big names could win elections, the caliber of politicians on board the campaign councils of each of the political parties also make it too close to call, as each one of them parade seasoned strategists.
The commonality of what seems to give political parties a semblance of acceptance makes predictions dicey, but our correspondents’ findings reveal that , outside the conventionally known factors that sway elections, political opinion is being shaped and reshaped by other subterranean factors.
To this end, most electorates seem to have formed their opinions to the effect that their positions remain sacrosanct untill the elections.
To this end,the sentiments that brought President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, into power in 2015, are still prevalent, and most people still prefer the APC, irrespective of the candidate on the ballot this time around.
While it may be a truism that both the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the APC, for example, have had their turns in government and Nigerians have the opportunity to rate their performances: the APC is more likely to take the day, given the power and resources at its disposal.
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of Labour party, may have large financial war chests, but their individual resources may not be a match to the state resources available to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his party the APC.
This is against the background that, APC could could deploy all instruments of coercion as well as resources available to it, to ensure it retains power.
Again, unlike the PDP, the fighting spirit of the APC is such that, it never says die, and the party may fight to finish.
Against arguments in some quarters that, with the likes of Dino Melaye and Daniel Bwala, as arrowheads of the PDP propaganda:having been part of the APC machinery, not even the compliments by Charles Aniagwu: an authority in propaganda; may alter things, as the APC seems to have already created a narrative, which the PDP is fighting hard to deconstruct before the elections.
Of course, each party have created narratives based on religion, tribe and region, all of which seem to have assumed lives of their own in the political narrative, and these factors may also sway the votes in favour of Tinubu.
Findings reveal that, barring any changes to the current mood, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has the upper hand in Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Rivers and Gombe states.
Atiku Abubakar is likely to take Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Plateau, Sokoto,Bayelsa, Edo, Oyo, Osun, CrossRivers, Delta, while Peter Obi is more likely to pocket, Anambra, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, the FCT, and Abia states, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will escape with Kano in his kitty.
These projections were based on the strength if the parties and the mood of citizens in the build up to the elections.
While Tinubu May dominate in the states listed as his stronghold, he is more likely to score the requisite 25% in states like Bauchi, Sokoto, Kano, Plateau, FCT, Oyo, Osun, Taraba, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia and Edo states.
Atiku is likely to get 25% in almost all the states across the Federation, but may not get the majority votes, even as Peter Obi may come close to getting the majority votes, but may fail in getting the 25% requisite geographical votes.
With the indicators that Tinubu could win in the first round of votes, another curious angle is the likely run off between Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In the event of any of the scenario above, the government must put in place measures that will safeguard the unity of Nigeria: most of our respondents admonish.
News
‘Ombugadu Is a Brand, Not a Title’ — PDP Chieftain
By Emmanuel Kuza
A chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Nasarawa State, Abuga Ovie, has described the name Ombugadu as a political brand, saying the popularity and wide acceptance of the name have made David Emmanuel Ombugadu a major force in the state’s political landscape.
Ovie, who stated this in an interview on Tuesday, said what started as opposition from some of Ombugadu’s biological brothers and people he described as fathers and uncles who betrayed him for personal political interests had now assumed a wider dimension, with political parties allegedly joining the battle against him.
According to him, the latest development was an attempt to undermine the political value of the Ombugadu name by presenting another person with the same surname, describing it as an indication of how far some political actors were prepared to go to weaken the PDP governorship candidate.
“Ombugadu is a brand, not a title. The people are not fools. They know their own. You cannot simply bring another person bearing the same name and expect the people to forget the political identity that Ombugadu has built over the years,” he said.
He further alleged that a former governor was working to introduce a political associate who had served as Accountant-General of Nasarawa State into the political equation, with the alleged objective of destabilising the PDP and weakening its chances by ensuring that the party fields a less competitive candidate in 2027.
“The plan, as we understand it, is to destabilise the PDP and make sure the party presents a weak candidate, thereby creating an advantage for the former governor’s preferred candidate. But all those efforts have proved abortive because the national leadership of the PDP stood its ground and refused to lose its best bet for the 2027 governorship election,” Ovie said.
The PDP chieftain said the resolve of the national leadership to retain Ombugadu had demonstrated the confidence the party had in his capacity to win the governorship election, despite what he described as attempts by some political actors to frustrate his ambition.
Ovie urged political parties and their leaders to resolve their internal differences instead of concentrating their efforts on Ombugadu, whom he compared to David in the Bible, saying he remained focused despite betrayal and opposition from those close to him.
“Ombugadu is like David in the Bible. Even when his brothers forsook him, he remained focused. Today, despite the people who have betrayed him, he remains focused and has a blueprint that can rescue Nasarawa State,” he said.
He said political parties should concentrate on presenting their programmes and convincing voters about how they intend to address the challenges confronting the state rather than expending their energy on attempts to stop Ombugadu.
“Political parties should fix their problems instead of wasting their strength fighting Ombugadu. Let everybody bring their blueprint before the people and explain what they intend to do for Nasarawa State,” he said.
Ovie maintained that the 2027 election should be about ideas, competence and the future of Nasarawa State, rather than attempts to manipulate political structures or undermine individuals perceived to enjoy strong grassroots support.
He urged the people of the state, particularly the Eggon community, to remain politically vigilant and resist what he described as efforts to make them settle for less, insisting that voters would ultimately determine who enjoys their confidence at the polls.
Reduce repeated references to Ombugadu
News
200 widows benefit from empowerment outreach in Plateau
By Israel Adamu, Jos
Two hundred widows from communities across Langtang North Central State Constituency of Plateau State have benefited from an empowerment outreach organised by Gimbiya Gani Nandir Lar under the Jagoran Talakawa movement.
The outreach, held at Pilgani in Langtang North Local Government Area, was aimed at supporting vulnerable women and drawing attention to the challenges faced by widows, particularly those struggling to provide food, pay school fees and meet other basic needs for their families.
The organiser, Nandir Lar, who is the All Progressives Congress, APC, candidate for Langtang North Central State Constituency, said the gesture was motivated by compassion and concern for vulnerable members of the society.
She stressed that the outreach was not a political programme but an expression of love and support for humanity.
Nandir Lar said: “The plight of widows may not always make headlines, but their struggles are real, painful and deserving of our collective attention.
“This is simply an expression of compassion and love for humanity. It is not a political programme.
“Our constituency is home to people with diverse needs, including mothers, widows and young people who are seeking opportunities to improve their lives.”
Former Provost of the Federal College of Education, Pankshin, Amos Chirfat, commended the initiative, saying it had brought smiles to the faces of vulnerable women in the constituency.
Minority Leader of the Langtang North Legislative Council, Dirya Sheni, also commended Nandir Lar for supporting widows and other vulnerable members of the community.
At the end of the outreach, each of the 200 beneficiaries received a 10-kilogramme bag of corn flour, seasoning and N10,000 cash
News
SCUML, REDAN Strengthen Collaboration on Anti -Money Laundering Compliance
By Francis Wilfred
The Special Control Unit against Money Laundering (SCUML), and the Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN) have expressed commitment to ensure a full compliance with the Anti Money Laundering/Counter Finance on Terrorism/Counter Proliferation Financing, (AML/CFT/CPF) laws within the Nigeria’s real estate sector.
They made the resolve during a stakeholders’ engagement held on Thursday, September 10, 2026
The engagement focused on Mutual Evaluation readiness, risk-based supervision, beneficial ownership transparency, customer due diligence, internal controls and stronger collaboration between SCUML and the real estate sector.
Assistant Commander of the EFCC, ACE 1 Ibinabo Amachree, speaking on behalf of SCUML highlighted the strategic role of real estate operators in protecting the integrity of Nigeria’s financial system, particularly given the sector’s vulnerability to money laundering and other financial crime risks.
Amachree encouraged REDAN members to move beyond registration to ensure that compliance is embedded in their day-to-day operations. He mentioned the areas to include: understanding institutional risks, knowing customers and beneficial owners, identifying politically exposed persons, conducting appropriate sanctions screening, maintaining effective internal controls and meeting applicable reporting obligations
He, therefore, reaffirmed readiness to working closely with REDAN and other stakeholders to improve compliance, build capacity and promote a stronger culture of accountability across the real estate sector
“The message is clear: effective compliance is not just about meeting regulatory requirements; it is about protecting businesses, strengthening the real estate sector and safeguarding the integrity of Nigeria’s financial system”, she said.
In his remarks, the Chairman of REDAN, Lagos state, Mr Tony Kolawole pledged readiness to partner with SCUML in ensuring compliance with AML/CFT/CPF in the real estate sector to uphold financial integrity.
The engagement also provided an opportunity for REDAN members to share practical regulatory and operational challenges affecting the sector, reinforcing the importance of continuous dialogue between regulators and industry stakeholders.
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