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Why The Economy May Not Be Responding Fast EnoughBy: A G Abubakar
The nexus of monetary policy is “inflation.” It ties in prices, employment, interests, and exchange rates among other variables. Controlling inflation has literally come to define the functions of most central/reserve banks around the world. Incidentally, the phenomenon of inflation in an economy has a direct bearing on national output and productivity. Inflation can not be kept down so long as the national output of goods and services over the decade has been lacklustre.
This is going by such figures as the nation’s GDP (less than 2.5% decade average), the negative balance of trade, and a series of devaluation and manufacturing capabilities dwindling by the day. All are happening against the backdrop of serious challenges being encountered in the agricultural sector on account of insecurity and climatic factors. Add the annual population growth of 2.6% that is higher than the GDP, and the economic challenges, in the short run, become more intricate.
Forty per cent of farmers across such states as Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, and to lesser extent Niger and Kaduna can not successfully till the land. It’s obvious the implications on this development on labour and availability of food, and even agro raw materials.
In a situation like this, the CBN macroeconomic tools MPR, CRR, OMO, LR, Fx Interventions, etc) can only go as far. There is a minimum threshold of national output that could make such tools effective. It’s common sense.
Currency devaluation in low-producing economy amounts to net economic loss expressed in galloping and externaly induced inflation. As for food inflation, the nbs has this to say “After 19 straight months of a fiery inflationary surge, Nigeria’s inflation turned the corner in July, decelerating to 33.4% from 34.2% a month before…Interestingly food inflation slowed by1.34%…” a drop that is greater than the difference between the 33.4 and 34.2 rates. Many factors outside policy might have contributed to this marginal development, especially the arrival of some new food items in the market, plus the “improved” access to inputs.
The devaluation (forex pressure) of the Naira is likely to make this “improvement” unsustainable against the backdrop that the country’s food and beverage bill increased by 30% from the last quarter of 2023 and first quorta of 2024. The nation also expends over 65% of its annual budget on debt service. Devaluation, debilitating debt overhung, and massive imports are strange bedfellows! Economics devalue or float currency to stimulate export by making their products comparatively cheaper, among other factors. Therefore, to float the national currency, which is a euphemism for devaluation, is tantamount to net economic loss. A scenario that could be worsened by being an oil dependant economy.
Oil is under curtail, so devaluation does not affect its demand.
As it were, oil export accounts for around 90% of the nation’s foreign exchange. Therefore, stabilising the exchange rate will largely depend on the curtailment of local demand, which could reasonably be achieved through boosting national output, especially food and agro raw materials. A policy strategy that has yet to take root. And it may not, unless backed by enormous political will.
The fact is that the current harsh economic environment and the various security challenges across the land pose serious drawbacks to macroeconomic policies. But willy nilly, they have to be addressed first to ensure both food self-sufficiency and security. This is yet to be seen in realistic terms. China, India, Brazil, etc, leverage their initial take-off via national food sufficiency and the agro allied industries.
The Brazilian coffee, and sugar, the Indian spices, and Basmati rice and the Chinese noddles and cusines are now major global exports after satisfying local demand. They are testaments to the power of homegrown economic models based on local factor endowments, especially in agriculture and SMEs.
Government should pay more attention to this economic model as it accords the IMF/WB a tangential recognition for “peace to reign.” The IMF/WB and other externally prescribed “structural adjustment programme” (SAP) more often than not, place more premium on National Account Book balance/health rather than the individual economic health of the citizens. The capacity to descerne the conflicts of interest determines the success or otherwise of government’s reforms during periods of serious economic downturn.
A.G.Abubakar agbarewa@gmail.com
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More Discoveries in Kukareta Attack.
☆☆☆ 7 Additional Terrorist Graves, 2 ISWAP Dead Bodies Found.
☆☆☆Ex COAS Lauds Troops Gains.
By: Special Correspondent.
Troops of Operation HADIN KAI have discovered additional graves and bodies of suspected ISWAP terrorists during follow-up exploitation operations after the failed attack on Kukareta community in Borno State.
Pur correspondent learnt that, the latest discoveries were made during continued clearance and exploitation of the general area following the earlier engagement in which 24 insurgents were killed.
Sources said troops uncovered 7 freshly dug graves believed to belong to terrorists killed during the encounter, as well as 2 additional bodies of suspected ISWAP fighters along withdrawal routes.
They noted that the findings further confirmed significant casualties suffered by the insurgents during the failed assault on the community.
According to the sources, the operation followed a coordinated attack launched by the terrorists in the early hours of April 23, which was decisively repelled by troops after a prolonged firefight.
Troops had earlier recovered a cache of arms and ammunition from the scene, including 18 AK-47 rifles, 3 General Purpose Machine Guns, 2 PKT anti-aircraft guns, 3 RPG tubes, 2 mortar tubes, 4 hand grenades, 18 AK-47 magazines, and large quantities of 7.62mm ammunition.
Our correspondent further reports that exploitation efforts are ongoing, with troops continuing to comb surrounding areas for fleeing terrorists, possible additional bodies, and abandoned equipment.
They described the development as a major setback for the terrorist group, noting that sustained military pressure would be maintained to further degrade their operational capabilities.
This is even as former Chief of Army Staff, retired Lt.-Gen. Tukur Buratai, has commended the Nigerian Armed Forces for what he described as significant operational successes against terrorism, banditry and other forms of criminality across the country.
Buratai, in a statement on Sunday, said recent military operations under various theatres, particularly Operation Hadin Kai, demonstrate a renewed momentum in the fight against insecurity.
He noted that troops in the North-East had repelled coordinated terrorist attacks and recorded substantial battlefield gains, including the neutralisation of several insurgents and recovery of arms and ammunition.
Buratai particularly commended the troops over the encounters in Borno State, ehere troops successfully defended Kukareta community against heavily armed terrorists, killing 24 fighters and recovering multiple weapons, including AK-47 rifles, machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.
He added that subsequent clearance operations led to the discovery of additional bodies and graves of fleeing insurgents, while another operation in Yobe State resulted in the elimination of a senior ISWAP commander, Abu Jarir.
Buratai attributed the successes to improved synergy between the Nigerian Army and the Nigerian Air Force, highlighting precision airstrikes on terrorist in the Lake Chad region as a critical factor in degrading enemy capabilities.
He said intelligence reports confirmed that dozens of insurgents were neutralised during coordinated air and ground operations, underscoring the effectiveness of joint force employment.
The former army chief also highlighted gains in the North-West under Operation Fansan Yamma, where troops neutralised bandits, dismantled camps and recovered rustled livestock.
He cited an operation in Katsina State where troops engaged a bandit leader, forcing his group to abandon over 200 cattle, which were subsequently returned to their owners.
In Zamfara and Kaduna States, Buratai said troops carried out ambushes, rescued kidnapped victims, and disrupted criminal logistics networks, adding that the military had shifted from reactive responses to proactive clearance operations.
In the North-Central region, he noted that troops under Operation Enduring Peace had made arrests linked to cattle rustling and communal violence, while in the South-South, security forces uncovered illegal oil bunkering sites and recovered stolen crude.
He further stated that in the South-East, troops arrested a suspected insurgent commander linked to attacks on security personnel, demonstrating the nationwide reach of ongoing military operations.
Buratai also referenced the recovery of the remains of two soldiers killed in 2022, describing it as a significant step toward honouring fallen heroes with due military rites.
He stressed that the recent achievements were a result of improved intelligence gathering, inter-agency cooperation and the resilience of troops on the frontlines.
“The soldier must never be demoralised. There is no greater honour than defending one’s nation,” he said, urging Nigerians to continually support the armed forces.
Buratai called on citizens to avoid spreading unverified information and enemy propaganda, and instead support troops through timely intelligence and moral encouragement.
He also commended the Minister of Defence, Chief of Defence Staff, Service Chiefs, Inspector-General of Police and intelligence agencies for what he described as effective leadership and coordination.
The retired general urged the military to sustain the current momentum, noting that although terrorist groups had been weakened, they remained capable of regrouping.
“The fight is not over. This is the time to intensify operations and deny the enemy any opportunity to recover,” he said.
Buratai reiterated that with sustained military pressure, enhanced intelligence and public support, Nigeria was on course to restoring peace and security across all regions.
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Ex-KwGIS Chair predicts Tinubu’s reelection, declares for Reps seat
Stephen Olufemi Oni, Ilorin
Former Chairman of the Kwara State Geographic Information Service (KwGIS), Hon. Akintade AbdulMutalib Shittu, has m joined the race for the House of Representatives seat of Offa/Oyun/Ifelodun Federal Constituency under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections.
At the declaration ceremony held at Sofoluwe Hall, Offa Grammar School, Offa, where party faithful, supporters, and stakeholders gathered to witness the announcement, Hon Shittu said he is well prepared for the representation, if given the mandate.
“I am not new to lawmaking. I have been part of processes that produced impactful legislations in Kwara State, and I understand what it takes to navigate the system effectively.
“As a Special Assistant to the Governor, I contributed to the development of key legislations, including those establishing the KwGIS, as well as laws on urban planning and land use,” he said.
He emphasised that representation at the National Assembly requires more than presence, stressing the need for strategic engagement and proactive lobbying to attract development to the constituency.
“You don’t go to the National Assembly to sit idly. You must understand the system, engage strategically, and ensure your constituency benefits from available opportunities,” the aspirant said.
He pledged to deliver quality representation that addresses peculiar challenges, improve livelihoods, and ensure equitable development across the three local governments.
Speaking on the prospects of the APC, Hon Shittu expressed confidence in the electoral strength of the APC, commending the performance of the Kwara State Government and the growing acceptance of the party across the country.
“Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has done exceptionally well. If you look at where we were coming from. We were coming from the era of half-salaries. This government has been consistent in paying salaries on time. The government has also improved the social security safety net through the Kwara State Social Investment Programme (KWASSIP) with Owo Arugbo and Owo Isowo (grants for the elderly ones and businessmen and women.”
The governor has performed. The administration has performed and our people know it.”
According to him, recent political developments and mass support witnessed at party events are indicators of continued dominance for the APC ahead of 2027.
Hon. Shittu noted that economic transformation of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration has positioned APC for victory in 2027.
“The ingenuity of the president has led to the increase in federal allocations to states which enables the state governments to pay salaries without hassle. That is why some governors from other political party are joining the APC.
“Mr President has shown capacity for economic reforms. For example the introduction of NELFUND and other credit facilities. There is no doubt in my mind that the APC will deliver in 2027. Nigerians will return President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027,” Hon. Shittu added.
Party leaders from the three local governments in the constituency emphasised sustained unity in the party and urged all aspirants to remain committed to party discipline and decisions.
Kasali Yusuf from Ifelodun Local Government described Hon Akintade Shittu as a committed APC member who has a good character to represent the party.
“Ifelodun/Offa/Oyun Local Governments are one and all members of the party will support whoever emerges as the candidate of the party.”
Speaking on behalf of all ward chairmen from Offa, Alhaji Oyediran Layi sought the support of other local governments in the constituency to support the aspiration of Hon Akintade Shittu.
“I want to call on the two other local governments to support the aspiration of Hon Akintade Shittu. He is from a well known family which has contributed to the development of Offa. He will do well for the federal constituency.”
Chairman of ward chairmen from Oyun Local Government Area, Alhaji Ibrahim Adeleke prayed for the success of APC at all levels.
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Operation Wetie: Gov. Makinde’s Dangerous Rhetorics.
By: Inuwa Bwala.
I cannot still fathom what he means, but one thing is clear that, invoking the spirit of any form of violence, under whatever circumstances, is unstatesmanly and most uncharitable.
What people should always bear in mind, is the fact that, it takes a little issue to spark a larger crisis.
One can ignite crisis, but no one knows the dimenssions it could assume, neither can one predict when it will end.
It is with these at the back of my mind that, I think, the remarks credited to Oyo state Governor, Seyi Makinde, in which he tried to invoke the memory of the infamous “operation wetie”, was both dangerous and irresponsible of a leader.
No one wants to remember the horrors of the 1st and 2nd World wars. Neither do Nigerians pretend to cherish the memories of the civil war.
The 1st world war alone cost humanity more than 22 million lives.
And what started the 1st world war was a minor spark: the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Archduke Ferdinand Frantz in Sareyevo on June 28th 1914 by a Serb Nationalist.
Closer home, a minor skirmish in Maiduguri, when, the then, Borno state Governor, Ali Modu Sheriff deployed Operatives of Operation Flush,to enforce the use of helmets by Motorcyclists, that ignited the Boko Haram Insurgency.
The crisis has consumed hundreds of lives and dislocated socio-economic lines. It is still ravaging the Nation and there does not appear any solution in sight.
Leadership requires maturity, tactfulness and proportion and not a licence for irresponsible ranting by desperate Politicians.
When Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde talked about “Operation Wetie”: apparently referencing that dark, violent chapter in Nigeria’s political history from the 1960s, people hailed him.
But for those who were witnesses to and know what “Operation Wetie” means, it was indeed a very dangerous rhetoric.
“Wetie” means “wet it” in Yoruba. During the 1965 Western Region elections crisis, describing the practice of dousing political opponents, their homes, properties and vehicles with petrol and setting them ablaze.
It erupted after highly disputed 1965 western region elections, alleged to have been rigged.
The violence was part of the struggle between Chiefs Ladoke Akintola and Obafemi Awolowo.
That crisis gave the region the nickname “Wild Wild West,” as a result of the massive destruction of lives and property, that partly triggered the January 15, 1966 coup: the coup that truncated Nigeria’s First Republic.
Using that era as a rhetoric
during the Ibadan Summit of All Opposition Political Party Leaders, Makinde in my understanding was subtly threatning the ruling party, APC, against perceived moves to foist a one-party political structure on Nigeria.
The governor was essentially saying, history will repeat itself, with Ibadan/Oyo as the epicentre, just like that of that 1960s violence.
But no matter the level of provocation, perceived to have been done to those who gathered in Ibadan, awakening the memories of that wetie era was like scratching an old would.
Except perhaps for Makinde, the people of the south west have never seen it as a pride, that the crisis in the region during that regency, led to them being labbeled as the wild-wild west.
If the world could go to war, over the assasination of one individual, in a third rate country, our leaders should be careful about what they say or do in public.
At the risk of sounding combative, I srate that, neither threats of violence or war, nor invoking the era of operation wetie, could give Governor Makinde what he wants, the best way to go is to call out his fellow travellers to embibe the spirit of tolerance and persuation, the two cardinal principles of democracy.
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