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OPINION: NIGERIA’S ASSUMED ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE TO THE U.S: THE FACTS, FIGURES, AND THE NEED FOR NEW PRAGMATISM

Published

5 days ago

December 10, 2025

BY: A G Abubakar

Teaser: With a GDP smaller than the budgets of several U.S. states, and an oil export share under 3% Nigeria’s economic weight in Washington remains minimal. In 2024, total U.S. oil imports were valued at about $1.3 trillion, while Nigeria’s crude exports to the U.S. stood at $4.5 billion—barely 3%. The U.S. was not even among the top seven importers of Nigerian crude, which generated ₦45.1 trillion (about $32 b) for Nigeria. Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, and the UK, led the list (NNPC, 2024). Oil remains Nigeria’s primary foreign exchange earner; others like solid minerals, agriculture, and gas exist largely at the level of potential.

The question, therefore, arises: within the context of the current U.S.–Nigeria relationship, does Nigeria mean much to the United States? Is the perceived “hostile” attitude toward Nigeria driven by economic interest? The answer is both yes and no — yes, perhaps in terms of potential, but no in terms of empirical indicators. Understanding this distinction between reality and potential is crucial for Nigeria to cultivate smarter global engagements and to manage diplomatic frictions such as those experienced in recent times with the United States.

It is true that Nigerians excel globally, but the Nigerian state itself remains a developing country struggling with stability and growth. It stays trapped in a neoliberal global economic structure that divides the world between commodity producers and consumers of finished goods. Occasional low-tech industrial processes — packaging, bottling, assembly, refining — create the illusion of transformation but do not alter the underlying dependency structure. This system, shaped by colonial history, imperial influence, and racialised global hierarchies, continues to function without malice on the part of those who benefit from it.

Industrialised nations negotiate toughly and expect counteroffers; those who fail to negotiate simply get swept aside. In this “global jungle,” survival depends on strategy, not sentiment — and certainly not on boasting about dormant potential. It is the optimal utilisation of productive factors within a given context that engenders economic growth and not potential. A nation’s production possibilities frontier or curve (PPC, PPF), which is a “simplistic” representation of its growth can only shift outward on account of a well tailored economic development framework which is pursued on sustained basis. Nigeria hasn’t been that lucky in this regard for years

Much of the Nigerian public discourse tends to sentimentally assume that the West’s preoccupation with Nigeria is its wealth. This is a misconception. Nigeria is indeed endowed with natural resources, but endowment is not wealth. Wealth is the ability to convert resources into power, productivity, and prosperity — and Nigeria has not done so at scale. It remains a nation full of deprivations.

Nigeria’s potentials are vast: over 200 million people, a landmass of 923,768 square kilometres of which 36.8 million hectares are arable, and enormous mineral wealth including oil, gas, lithium, tin, coal, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite, rare earth elements, and bitumen worth an estimated $700 billion. Nigeria has 37 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 210 trillion cubic feet of gas. In agriculture, it leads the world in cassava, yam, and sorghum production and ranks among the top producers of cocoa, cashew, sesame, and shea butter. Its coastline stretches 853 kilometres, hosting vital maritime trade routes and significant offshore oil deposits. Above all is a youthful labour force of 87 million people — a potential demographic dividend.

Yet these remain unrealised. Poverty, insecurity, and weak policy implementation continue to overshadow the country’s prospects. Nigeria’s GDP fluctuates between $188 billion and $250 billion, with the IMF’s 2025 outlook placing it at $188.27 billion — behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria The national budget remains below $40 billion, a figure woefully inadequate for a country of more than 200 million people. Daily oil production hovers around 1.5 million barrels, insignificant on the global stage.

Given these realities, the idea that Nigeria holds significant economic relevance for the United States collapses under scrutiny. The U.S. has 55 billion barrels of proven oil, 198 billion technically recoverable barrels, and 322 trillion cubic feet of gas. It produces 13 million barrels of oil daily. Its GDP reached $20 trillion in 2024, and its federal budget stood at $6.8 trillion, with a deficit of $1.8 trillion. Nigeria’s GDP is smaller than the budgets of individual U.S. states such as California, New York, and Texas. Astonishingly, it is also smaller than the personal fortunes of Elon Musk ($342b), Mark Zuckerberg ($216b), and Jeff Bezos ($215b) U.S. corporations like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla, each boast market capitalisations exceeding $1 trillion.

In foreign engagements alone, the U.S. spend amounts that dwarf Nigeria’s entire economy. Over two decades, it has averaged about $400 billion annually on wars and military operations, spent more than $2 trillion in Afghanistan and Pakistan, $3 trillion in Iraq and Syria (2003–2023), $350 billion in support of Ukraine, and $21 billion on Israel’s war in Gaza. It disburses nearly $100 billion every year in foreign aid and humanitarian assistance worldwide.

It is thus unrealistic to claim that the United States is driven by economic considerations or resource desperation toward Nigeria. The purchasing power of Nigerians is weak, and Nigeria’s contribution to global value chains is marginal. The country must accept this reality when shaping foreign policy. The time for playing the victim is over. Nations grow not by proclaiming potential but by converting that potential into economic power and using it to negotiate interest-based alliances.

No economic or ideological system is pure. They do share certain features. China’s “socialist market economy” under Deng Xiaoping embraced foreign investment and private enterprise, propelling China into the world’s second-largest economy. Gorbachev’s Perestroika and Glasnost introduced elements of market liberalisation in the USSR. The market-oriented reform has made the two former socialist economies more resilient and productive. The United States, the acclaimed global symbol of capitalism, equally operates a substantial welfare system — TANF, SNAP, Medicaid, housing assistance, disability support, and more. Ideologically, these schemes fall more to the socialist system.

Great powers also drop allies when interests shift: the USSR’s lukewarm support to Egypt during the 1973 Yom Kippur War; the West’s abandonment of the Shah of Iran; Ghana’s ideological swing from East to West after Nkrumah; Malaysia and Indonesia’s transformation from anti-communist hardliners to deep economic partners of China; and Vietnam’s journey from bitter U.S. enemy to a comprehensive strategic partner with over $150 billion in trade. Maybe to the chagrin of China, its pillar of support throughout the war years.

In the same vein, during the Cold War period, Malaysia under Mahathir Mohamad and Indonesia under Suharto were considered anti communist governments, but today, both maintain robust diplomatic and economic relations with China. By 2024, China was Malaysia’s largest trading partner, while the volume of Indonesia’s trade with China surged to $135 billion. Pragmatism dictates that nations subordinate their ideological inclinations under the goals of national interests – security and development.

Within the same liberal democratic settings, too, the interests/idiosyncrasies of the individual leaders could impact situations. For instance, the same US government that provided massive military support to the Ukraine in war with Russia has seemingly fallen out of favour with Trump, who had since cut it down. A move that has impacted Ukraine’s war campaigns negatived. Trump has equally armtwisted Ukraine to pay back the earlier US support under a mineral-mining rights agreement. The same superpower politics could be a kettle of paradox and irony.

The US and the EU that have been campaigning for sanctions against Russia and “threatening penalty” nations that failed to tow still patronise it. For instance, while the US slaps India with high tariffs for its relationship with Russia, the US still imports Russia’s nuclear fuel. It is also estimated that the UE still imports up to $130 billion worth of natural gas in 2024. That’s how marcky, fluid, and self-serving national interests and global politics could be. The development should also serve as a lesson to Nigeria and other lesser developed nations.

Nigeria must, therefore, widen its focus beyond the myth and fixation of being economically indispensable to the U.S. and indeed any power and rethink the relationship through the broader lens of national interest — particularly security and stability — in an evolving multipolar world. The rise of China and the re-emergence of India and Russia have reshaped global power into a polycentric order. Choices and alliances must be pragmatic, deliberate, and strategic to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Cold War era, when many developing nations merely exchanged one hegemon for another.

Today, the United States remains inclined toward militarised foreign policy, while China is primarily focused on global economic expansion. India and Russia operate on smaller but still consequential scales. By understanding these distinctions and leveraging new platforms such as BRICS+, Nigeria can position itself intelligently in the post-Trump global landscape.

The emerging order is moving toward a post-Western system, where traditional East–West ideological contests give way to new geopolitical realities driven by national interests. Nigeria’s path forward lies in recognising its true position, converting its potential into real economic power, and engaging the world with strategy rather than sentiment.

Nigeria must stop anchoring its foreign relations on assumptions of economic relevance and start negotiating from a clear understanding of its true strengths and vulnerabilities. In a world tilting towards multipolar competition, sentiment is a luxury. Strategy, is survival. Nations rise by reading the global room correctly – and also acting decisively. Powers respect capacity, not potential; results are not rhetoric.

If Nigeria, the 6th populous nation in the world, wants a seat at the global table, it must earn it through smart policies, disciplined execution, and a partnership rooted in sound and realistic vision. A national vision forged in justice, equity, accountability, and sense of proportion in governance. So far these critical elements have been in short supply. Nigeria should therefore wake up and get its act together if it wants to earn respect and relevance in the unfolding new polycentric world order. So far, there’s not a single nation on the planet Earth with over 220 million people that has reduced itself to global ridicule and disrespect like Nigeria. All, on account of decades of bad governance. Things got to change.
A. G. Abubakar
agbarewa@gmail.com

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2027: 10 Reasons Tinubu Will Win Again- VOTA Survey

Published

9 hours ago

December 15, 2025

Our Reporter

☆☆☆ Mulls Diaspora As Backbone .

By: Our Special Correspondent.
Love him or hate him, Nigerias President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is the only likely Presidential candidate in the 2027 elections with the least possible challenge from within or from outside his party, the All Progressives Congress.
While some may atribute his seeming clear way to the crises rocking virtually all the other opppsition parties and the attendant gains for the APC from it; there are more compelling reasons, why this is so.
Results of a survey, conducted by a political pressure group, VOTA, comprising Nigerians at home and in the diaspora, reveal that, there does not appear any serious impediment to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.
The group which operates under the leadership of Senator Istifanus Gyang from Plateau State, gave ten reasons why Nigerians are more likely to vote President Bola Ahmed Tinubu again, in 2027, based on his performances in the face of serious national challenges.
According to the document obtained by National Trail, the group has decided to queue up behind the President, after a careful re-assesment of all likely candidates that may join the 2027 presidential race.
VOTA, which stands for VOTE TINUBU AGAIN 2027, disclosed that, the group is a metamorphorsis of the collaborative efforts of diapora groups and Nigerians at home: greater number of whom did not support President Tinubu in 2023.
With the outcome of the latest survey, they have decided to support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, essentially for the ten reason, outlined in the survey document.
Organizing Secretary of VOTA, Uche Nwabuku, who gave a brief on the survey revealed that, questions were put across to Nigerians irrespective of their political inclinations across all 774 Local Governmrnt Areas, and the positive responses were ovetwhelming.
In the southern part of the country, they based their reasons on the need for the south to conclude the eight years, before shifting to the north.
From most northern states, even with the attempts to manipulate their views, Tinubu remains the candidate to beat.
Away from the general questions VOTA also discovered that, Tinubu is the sure horse, based on their findings.
A breakdown of the ten reason, the President will win again, according to him, include, President Tinubu’s bold economic reforms, which have the tendency of stablizing Nigeria in the long run.
Another reason according to their findings, is President Tinubu’s leadership capabilities in the face of inherited problems.
VOTA’s findings, give the President an age over any other candidate, for the clarity of direction of his “Renewed Hope Agenda”, which has not left any Nigerian in doubt: including some habitual skeptics.
Bola Tinubu’s determination to ensure true federalism and ensuring national unity, through broad based programmes remains one quality that also stands him out, according to the survey result.
When viewed alongside his vigorous expanssion of infrastructures across the country and the empowerment of vulnetable Nigerians, in the face of economic hardships, the ground is further softened for Bola Tinubu’s return, they noted.
The President’s recent inmitiatives in rejigging the nations security architecture and strengthening diplomatic overtures in adressing insecurity, has tended to change the narrative in his favour, they stated, this is even as he has demonstrated rare democratic leadership, which explains why most Nigerian leaders scramble to identify with him.
Above all these, VOTA noted, that, Nigerians now understand the benefits of continuity in governance, such that, policies and projects are not stagnated. This belief is further strengthened by the already manifesting results from President Tinubu,’s reform programmes, which unless, he is allowed to nurture to maturity may stagnate, according to the findings.
Spokesman of VOTA, Inuwa Bwala told our correspondent in a chat, that, the group plans to market Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who stands on higher electoral grounds, because, they are convinced, he remains the best for Nigeria.
According to Bwala, their approach in marketing the President will differ in many ways from what others are doing.
He said VOTA does not believe in combative campaigns, but will use subtle persuation, so that Nigeriabs will see issues from clearer perspectives.
He told our correspondent that, there are a lot of strategies they plan to unfold, when eventually innaugrated.
Bwala said, the diaspora branch of VOTA has commenced activities in full swing, which they hope to align with very soon for greater impact.

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X-Raying The Changing Power Dynamics in Rivers.

Published

9 hours ago

December 15, 2025

Our Reporter

By Hasssn Taiye- Abuja.

Governor Siminalayi Fubara has made a significant move, defecting from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
This decision comes after 17 lawmakers, led by Speaker Martin Amaewhule, also switched to the APC, citing deep divisions within the PDP.

Governor Siminalayi Fubara has defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), and he’s now the governor of Rivers State under the APC platform, invarianly meaning, he is the leader of the party. Although, the chairmanship of the APC in Rivers State is held by Chief Tony Okocha, who is an ally of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike.

It’s worth noting that Wike is still a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), despite serving in the APC-led federal government as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. The relationship between Fubara and Wike has been tense, with allegations of power struggles and disagreements over control of Rivers State’s political structures .

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) recently announced the expulsion of the FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose, and Senator Samuel Anyanwu, among others, for alleged anti-party activities. This decision was made during the PDP’s national convention in Ibadan, Oyo State, which according to the party was aimed at restoring unity and discipline within the party ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Wike, who has been at odds with the PDP leadership, and his expulsion by the party is seen as a significant move to address internal divisions. The PDP cited Articles 33(2)(1),(2)(j) (n) and (r) of its constitution as the basis for the expulsion

Wike’s aide, Lere Olayinka, though has mocked the PDP’s decision, describing it as a “social party” and implying that the expulsion is not legitimate. The move has sparked controversy, with some governors distancing themselves from the decision and calling for reconciliation

Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister, and Bukola Saraki, former Senate President, met over the weekend to discuss the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) crisis, with promises to revamp the party. This meeting is part of ongoing efforts to resolve the internal conflicts plaguing the PDP, particularly the feud between Wike and Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State.

The PDP has been grappling with leadership disputes, defections, and allegations of sabotage, which have weakened the party ahead of the 2027 elections. Wike has accused Makinde of orchestrating breaches of agreements and undermining party unity, while Makinde has denied these allegations.

Saraki has been leading reconciliation efforts, proposing a caretaker committee to oversee party affairs and ensure stability. Wike’s camp has expressed willingness to consider this option, aiming to rebuild the PDP and restore its credibility.

The situation remains fluid, with multiple factions vying for control and concerns about the party’s future. The outcome of these talks will likely shape the PDP’s trajectory and its chances in the upcoming elections

With Wike’s fate hanging precariously, Fubara’s defection is seen as a strategic move to aligning with President Bola Tinubu’s administration. He stated that his decision was driven by the need to align Rivers State with the federal government and ensure a harmonious working relationship

However, tensions are rising between Fubara and his predecessor, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, with allegations of power struggle and disagreements over commissioner appointments. Wike’s camp is reportedly seeking significant influence in the new cabinet, sparking concerns about control and representation

The lawmakers loyal to Wike have accused Fubara of sidelining them and ignoring agreements reached during the peace deal brokered by President Tinubu. Fubara, on the other hand, claims Wike is behind the tensions and has not fixed a meeting with the lawmakers

As the power dynamics shift, questions arise about Wike’s position and influence in Rivers State politics. Some analysts believe Fubara has outmaneuvered Wike, while others see Wike as still holding significant sway .

The situation remains fluid, with both sides engaging in a war of words and jockeying for position. One thing is certain: Rivers State politics is in for a wild ride
There’s tension in Rivers State as the House of Assembly denies meeting with Governor Siminalayi Fubara, adjourning sitting till January 26, 2026. Speaker Martin Amaewhule accuses Fubara of lying about not meeting with lawmakers, claiming they met twice with the governor and other leaders. Fubara, who recently defected to the APC, insists he’s willing to meet with the lawmakers, but Amaewhule says Fubara hasn’t fulfilled the terms of their previous agreements ¹

The feud between Fubara and Amaewhule, backed by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, has been ongoing, with allegations of power struggles and disagreements over control of Rivers State’s political structures. President Bola Tinubu has been mediating the conflict, and there’s reportedly an agreement for Fubara to serve out his term without seeking re-election in 2027

The situation remains sensitive, with concerns about the impact on governance and stability in Rivers State.

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Christian Genocide: US, Nigeria Close To Finalising Strategic Framework To Combat Terrorism

Published

12 hours ago

December 15, 2025

Our Reporter

By: Fabian Apechihin

US Congressman Riley Moore Says US, Nigeria Near “Significant Milestone” Against Terrorism

United States Congressman Riley Moore has announced that the U.S. and Nigerian governments are approaching a “significant milestone” in efforts to combat terrorism, with a strategic security framework expected to be finalized soon.

In a post on X on Sunday, Moore explained that the proposed framework will focus on countering extremist groups in Nigeria’s North-East and Middle Belt regions, with particular attention to ending what he described as the “genocide against Christians.”

Moore, who recently led a fact-finding delegation to Nigeria, witnessed the devastating impact of violent extremism firsthand, particularly in Benue and Plateau states. The delegation met with senior Nigerian officials, including National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Attorney General Lateef Fagbemi, Benue State Governor Hyacinth Alia, and key religious and traditional leaders.

“We had positive conversations with the Nigerian government, and I believe we are close to a strategic security framework to address both the ISIS and Boko Haram threat in the Northeast, as well as the genocide against Christians by radical Fulani Muslims in the Middle Belt,” Moore said.

He added that the fact-finding report would be submitted to former U.S. President Donald Trump and would outline ways for the U.S. to collaborate with Nigeria to “end the slaughter of our brothers and sisters in Christ.”

Moore recounted the harrowing stories of victims he met during his visit. “I met a woman who witnessed all five of her children murdered in front of her. Another woman lost her husband and two daughters and had her unborn child killed,” he revealed.

The announcement follows Nigeria’s previous redesignation by the Trump administration as a “Country of Particular Concern” due to Christian killings, accompanied by warnings of potential U.S. military action against Fulani extremists if the Nigerian government failed to act.

In response, the Nigerian government has engaged in dialogue with U.S. officials, including a delegation led by NSA Ribadu visiting Washington to present Nigeria’s position. Steps taken domestically include declaring a state of emergency on insecurity, establishing a U.S.-Nigeria Joint Working Group on Security, and appointing Gen. Christopher Musa as Minister of Defence.