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OPINION: NIGERIA’S ASSUMED ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE TO THE U.S: THE FACTS, FIGURES, AND THE NEED FOR NEW PRAGMATISM

Published

11 months ago

December 10, 2025

BY: A G Abubakar

Teaser: With a GDP smaller than the budgets of several U.S. states, and an oil export share under 3% Nigeria’s economic weight in Washington remains minimal. In 2024, total U.S. oil imports were valued at about $1.3 trillion, while Nigeria’s crude exports to the U.S. stood at $4.5 billion—barely 3%. The U.S. was not even among the top seven importers of Nigerian crude, which generated ₦45.1 trillion (about $32 b) for Nigeria. Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, and the UK, led the list (NNPC, 2024). Oil remains Nigeria’s primary foreign exchange earner; others like solid minerals, agriculture, and gas exist largely at the level of potential.

The question, therefore, arises: within the context of the current U.S.–Nigeria relationship, does Nigeria mean much to the United States? Is the perceived “hostile” attitude toward Nigeria driven by economic interest? The answer is both yes and no — yes, perhaps in terms of potential, but no in terms of empirical indicators. Understanding this distinction between reality and potential is crucial for Nigeria to cultivate smarter global engagements and to manage diplomatic frictions such as those experienced in recent times with the United States.

It is true that Nigerians excel globally, but the Nigerian state itself remains a developing country struggling with stability and growth. It stays trapped in a neoliberal global economic structure that divides the world between commodity producers and consumers of finished goods. Occasional low-tech industrial processes — packaging, bottling, assembly, refining — create the illusion of transformation but do not alter the underlying dependency structure. This system, shaped by colonial history, imperial influence, and racialised global hierarchies, continues to function without malice on the part of those who benefit from it.

Industrialised nations negotiate toughly and expect counteroffers; those who fail to negotiate simply get swept aside. In this “global jungle,” survival depends on strategy, not sentiment — and certainly not on boasting about dormant potential. It is the optimal utilisation of productive factors within a given context that engenders economic growth and not potential. A nation’s production possibilities frontier or curve (PPC, PPF), which is a “simplistic” representation of its growth can only shift outward on account of a well tailored economic development framework which is pursued on sustained basis. Nigeria hasn’t been that lucky in this regard for years

Much of the Nigerian public discourse tends to sentimentally assume that the West’s preoccupation with Nigeria is its wealth. This is a misconception. Nigeria is indeed endowed with natural resources, but endowment is not wealth. Wealth is the ability to convert resources into power, productivity, and prosperity — and Nigeria has not done so at scale. It remains a nation full of deprivations.

Nigeria’s potentials are vast: over 200 million people, a landmass of 923,768 square kilometres of which 36.8 million hectares are arable, and enormous mineral wealth including oil, gas, lithium, tin, coal, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite, rare earth elements, and bitumen worth an estimated $700 billion. Nigeria has 37 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 210 trillion cubic feet of gas. In agriculture, it leads the world in cassava, yam, and sorghum production and ranks among the top producers of cocoa, cashew, sesame, and shea butter. Its coastline stretches 853 kilometres, hosting vital maritime trade routes and significant offshore oil deposits. Above all is a youthful labour force of 87 million people — a potential demographic dividend.

Yet these remain unrealised. Poverty, insecurity, and weak policy implementation continue to overshadow the country’s prospects. Nigeria’s GDP fluctuates between $188 billion and $250 billion, with the IMF’s 2025 outlook placing it at $188.27 billion — behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria The national budget remains below $40 billion, a figure woefully inadequate for a country of more than 200 million people. Daily oil production hovers around 1.5 million barrels, insignificant on the global stage.

Given these realities, the idea that Nigeria holds significant economic relevance for the United States collapses under scrutiny. The U.S. has 55 billion barrels of proven oil, 198 billion technically recoverable barrels, and 322 trillion cubic feet of gas. It produces 13 million barrels of oil daily. Its GDP reached $20 trillion in 2024, and its federal budget stood at $6.8 trillion, with a deficit of $1.8 trillion. Nigeria’s GDP is smaller than the budgets of individual U.S. states such as California, New York, and Texas. Astonishingly, it is also smaller than the personal fortunes of Elon Musk ($342b), Mark Zuckerberg ($216b), and Jeff Bezos ($215b) U.S. corporations like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla, each boast market capitalisations exceeding $1 trillion.

In foreign engagements alone, the U.S. spend amounts that dwarf Nigeria’s entire economy. Over two decades, it has averaged about $400 billion annually on wars and military operations, spent more than $2 trillion in Afghanistan and Pakistan, $3 trillion in Iraq and Syria (2003–2023), $350 billion in support of Ukraine, and $21 billion on Israel’s war in Gaza. It disburses nearly $100 billion every year in foreign aid and humanitarian assistance worldwide.

It is thus unrealistic to claim that the United States is driven by economic considerations or resource desperation toward Nigeria. The purchasing power of Nigerians is weak, and Nigeria’s contribution to global value chains is marginal. The country must accept this reality when shaping foreign policy. The time for playing the victim is over. Nations grow not by proclaiming potential but by converting that potential into economic power and using it to negotiate interest-based alliances.

No economic or ideological system is pure. They do share certain features. China’s “socialist market economy” under Deng Xiaoping embraced foreign investment and private enterprise, propelling China into the world’s second-largest economy. Gorbachev’s Perestroika and Glasnost introduced elements of market liberalisation in the USSR. The market-oriented reform has made the two former socialist economies more resilient and productive. The United States, the acclaimed global symbol of capitalism, equally operates a substantial welfare system — TANF, SNAP, Medicaid, housing assistance, disability support, and more. Ideologically, these schemes fall more to the socialist system.

Great powers also drop allies when interests shift: the USSR’s lukewarm support to Egypt during the 1973 Yom Kippur War; the West’s abandonment of the Shah of Iran; Ghana’s ideological swing from East to West after Nkrumah; Malaysia and Indonesia’s transformation from anti-communist hardliners to deep economic partners of China; and Vietnam’s journey from bitter U.S. enemy to a comprehensive strategic partner with over $150 billion in trade. Maybe to the chagrin of China, its pillar of support throughout the war years.

In the same vein, during the Cold War period, Malaysia under Mahathir Mohamad and Indonesia under Suharto were considered anti communist governments, but today, both maintain robust diplomatic and economic relations with China. By 2024, China was Malaysia’s largest trading partner, while the volume of Indonesia’s trade with China surged to $135 billion. Pragmatism dictates that nations subordinate their ideological inclinations under the goals of national interests – security and development.

Within the same liberal democratic settings, too, the interests/idiosyncrasies of the individual leaders could impact situations. For instance, the same US government that provided massive military support to the Ukraine in war with Russia has seemingly fallen out of favour with Trump, who had since cut it down. A move that has impacted Ukraine’s war campaigns negatived. Trump has equally armtwisted Ukraine to pay back the earlier US support under a mineral-mining rights agreement. The same superpower politics could be a kettle of paradox and irony.

The US and the EU that have been campaigning for sanctions against Russia and “threatening penalty” nations that failed to tow still patronise it. For instance, while the US slaps India with high tariffs for its relationship with Russia, the US still imports Russia’s nuclear fuel. It is also estimated that the UE still imports up to $130 billion worth of natural gas in 2024. That’s how marcky, fluid, and self-serving national interests and global politics could be. The development should also serve as a lesson to Nigeria and other lesser developed nations.

Nigeria must, therefore, widen its focus beyond the myth and fixation of being economically indispensable to the U.S. and indeed any power and rethink the relationship through the broader lens of national interest — particularly security and stability — in an evolving multipolar world. The rise of China and the re-emergence of India and Russia have reshaped global power into a polycentric order. Choices and alliances must be pragmatic, deliberate, and strategic to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Cold War era, when many developing nations merely exchanged one hegemon for another.

Today, the United States remains inclined toward militarised foreign policy, while China is primarily focused on global economic expansion. India and Russia operate on smaller but still consequential scales. By understanding these distinctions and leveraging new platforms such as BRICS+, Nigeria can position itself intelligently in the post-Trump global landscape.

The emerging order is moving toward a post-Western system, where traditional East–West ideological contests give way to new geopolitical realities driven by national interests. Nigeria’s path forward lies in recognising its true position, converting its potential into real economic power, and engaging the world with strategy rather than sentiment.

Nigeria must stop anchoring its foreign relations on assumptions of economic relevance and start negotiating from a clear understanding of its true strengths and vulnerabilities. In a world tilting towards multipolar competition, sentiment is a luxury. Strategy, is survival. Nations rise by reading the global room correctly – and also acting decisively. Powers respect capacity, not potential; results are not rhetoric.

If Nigeria, the 6th populous nation in the world, wants a seat at the global table, it must earn it through smart policies, disciplined execution, and a partnership rooted in sound and realistic vision. A national vision forged in justice, equity, accountability, and sense of proportion in governance. So far these critical elements have been in short supply. Nigeria should therefore wake up and get its act together if it wants to earn respect and relevance in the unfolding new polycentric world order. So far, there’s not a single nation on the planet Earth with over 220 million people that has reduced itself to global ridicule and disrespect like Nigeria. All, on account of decades of bad governance. Things got to change.
A. G. Abubakar
agbarewa@gmail.com

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Kwara celebrates Fela’s legacy with retrospective exhibition

Published

1 day ago

October 26, 2026

Our Reporter

Stephen Olufemi Oni, Ilorin

The Kwara State Government has celebrated the life and enduring influence of Afrobeat legend, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, with a retrospective exhibition aimed at preserving African cultural heritage and inspiring younger generations.

The exhibition, titled Fela Anikulapo-Kuti: A Retrospective, was opened by Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq at the Institute of Contemporary African Art and Film in Ilorin on Monday.

The Governor said the establishment of the institute reflected his administration’s belief that development should extend beyond physical infrastructure to include spaces that promote creativity, knowledge and economic opportunities.

“When we established the Institute of Contemporary African Art & Film, our vision was clear: development must go beyond roads, bridges and buildings to create spaces for creativity, knowledge and opportunity,” AbdulRazaq said.

According to him, cultural infrastructure plays an important role in connecting people to their history, broadening their imagination and encouraging critical thinking.

“Physical infrastructure connects places; cultural infrastructure connects people to their history, expands their imagination and challenges their thinking,” the Governor said.

AbdulRazaq said the institute was established to preserve African stories, nurture talents and showcase the continent’s artists and thinkers to the world,
describing the decision to open the institution with an exhibition dedicated to Fela as significant, given the musician’s contribution to African music, social commentary and cultural expression.

“Fela was more than a musician. Through his music and artistic expression, he challenged conventions and confronted society with questions about power, freedom, identity and justice,” he added.

The Governor added that the late musician’s life demonstrated the capacity of artistic expression to influence public discourse and inspire social change.

The exhibition, curated by June Creative Art Advisory, led by its founder, Mrs Seun Alli, featured photography, archival materials, film, graphic works and other artistic expressions exploring Fela’s life, times and enduring influence.

AbdulRazaq commended the firm for bringing its curatorial expertise and creative vision to the project, while describing the exhibition as an opportunity for different categories of visitors to engage with the musician’s legacy.

He said the exhibition would provide students with learning opportunities beyond the classroom, inspire artists, support researchers and encourage young people to explore the creative industry.

“For students, this is a classroom beyond the classroom; for artists, inspiration; for researchers, an opportunity for deeper inquiry; and for young people, a reminder that creativity offers both self-expression and economic opportunity,” he said.

The Governor clarified that the state government was not claiming ownership of Fela’s story but was providing a platform for younger generations to encounter and learn from his legacy, adding that the state government is optimistic that the institute would promote cultural education, encourage creative enterprise, attract visitors and strengthen Kwara State’s position in Nigeria’s cultural and creative landscape.

According to him, the institution’s success would be measured by the talents it nurtured, the ideas it inspired and the opportunities it created.

“Governments change, but institutions should endure,” the Governor said, expressing the hope that the exhibition would mark the beginning of sustained cultural engagement at the institute.

“May this exhibition begin sustained cultural engagement at ICAAF and inspire our young people to create, question, discover and contribute to society,” he said.

AbdulRazaq added that the initiative reflected his administration’s commitment to building a state where cultural heritage, innovation and economic opportunities complemented one another.

In her address, the Commissioner for Communications, Hon. Bolanle Olukoju, said: “Today’s exhibition offers us an opportunity to revisit the life and works of Fela
Anikulapo-Kuti and appreciate how his music, ideas and artistic expression continue to influence generations.

“For the Ministry of Communications, this occasion speaks to an important part of our
mandate: promoting the stories, talents and creative expressions that shape our identity as a people.”

The Commissioner particularly noted that under Governor AbdulRazaq’s leadership, the State is creating opportunities for young people through investments in sectors such as film, fashion and technology.

She added: “Projects including
the Sugar Film Factory, the Garment Factory and the Ilorin Innovation Hub reflect the administration’s commitment to developing talent and supporting enterprise.

“The Institute of Contemporary African Art & Film, formerly the Ilorin Visual Arts Centre, adds an important dimension to this effort. It provides a platform for artistic expression, cultural learning and creative collaboration.

“We want young Kwarans who are passionate about painting, photography, filmmaking, fashion and design to see ICAAF as a place where they can explore their interests, learn from others and showcase their talents.

“We also encourage students to engage with art and history beyond the classroom. Fela’s story is a fitting subject for this exhibition. It demonstrates how creativity
can go beyond entertainment to shape cultural identity and influence public conversations. There is much for our young people to learn from his artistic journey and enduring impact.

“It might also interest you that kwara state was also part of Fela’s creative showcase during his lifetime.”

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2027: Ilorin West LG Boss Leads APC Mega Rally In Ubandawaki

Published

1 day ago

October 26, 2026

Our Reporter

•••Says Ward stands with APC

Stephen Olufemi Oni, Ilorin

The Executive Chairman of the Ilorin West Local Government, Mallam Shehu AbdulRahman Babatunde Ladan, has led an All Progressives Congress (APC) mega rally in Ubandawaki Ward, reaffirming the commitment of party members and supporters to the APC ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The rally attracted party leaders, grassroots mobilisers, youths, women, and other stakeholders who gathered to demonstrate their support for the party.

Addressing the gathering, Chairman Ladan declared that Ubandawaki Ward remains committed to the APC and its political leadership, expressing support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, and the APC governorship candidate, Rt. Hon. Engr. Yakubu Danladi-Salihu (SYD), alongside other party candidates for the 2027 general elections.

The Chairman emphasised the importance of unity, peaceful political engagement, and sustained grassroots mobilisation in strengthening the party’s structure ahead of the forthcoming elections, urging party faithful to remain united, engage constructively with residents, and work collectively towards the party’s political objectives.

Ladan also acknowledged the importance of Ubandawaki Ward in the political landscape of Ilorin West, encouraging party leaders and supporters to maintain cordial relationships, promote inclusive participation, and sustain engagement with the electorate. He stressed that a united party structure would help strengthen internal cooperation and effective grassroots coordination.

The mega rally renewed calls for unity, loyalty, and peaceful political participation among APC members and supporters, underscoring commitment by participants to mobilising support for the party’s candidates ahead of the 2027 general elections, while promoting peace, development, and responsible democratic engagement across Ilorin West Local Government Area.

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KW-IRS Staff Threaten Strike Over Alleged Poor Remuneration

Published

6 days ago

October 21, 2026

Our Reporter

Mgt Accuses Union Of Dishing Out False Staff Remuneration Scale

Stephen Olufemi Oni, Ilorin

The staff of the Kwara State Internal Revenue Service (KWIRS) have lamented poor welfare conditions, rising living costs and stagnant salaries they have been subjected to, despite their contributions to the state’s revenue generation.

In a statement issued by the KWIRS chapter of the Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN), the workers lamented that their sacrifice and professionalism, which have helped to place Kwara State among the more self-reliant states in the country, have not been matched with corresponding improvement in their welfare.

The workers questioned the disparity between their contributions to the state’s revenue and their welfare, saying many of them are battling financial hardship.

“We block leakages. We are posted to hospitals and other MDAs to secure government revenue. We work under pressure day and night but we continue to struggle to meet basic needs due to poor salaries.”

The association further expressed concern that personnel costs had remained unchanged for years while other expenditure heads had continued to increase.

It also cited a salary negotiation agreement dated October 11, 2022, which reportedly stated that the adjustment would be implemented “as soon as it can be accommodated in the budget.”

According to the workers, nearly four years after the agreement, there had been no implementation or clear indication of when the adjustment would take effect, despite the rising cost of living.

The staff said expenses on school fees, house rent, transportation and food had increased significantly while their salaries remained unchanged. “We smile outside but the majority of us are bleeding inside. We cannot continue to generate wealth for the state while we wallow in abject poverty,” they declared.

Urging their colleagues to remain united and resolute in pursuing improved welfare, the association said the workers should not expect better conditions without collectively standing up for their interests.

It called on members to remain calm, vigilant and prayerful as a 14-day period beginning October 15, 2026, counts down, without specifying further details in the statement about the expected action at its conclusion.

Reacting to the KW-IRS staff allegations, the Management, while
reaffirm its commitment to professionalism, political neutrality and its statutory mandate, expressed dismay over public speculation on staff remuneration and attempts to politicise unverified internal administrative communications.

“Management is concerned by attempts to exploit unverified internal administrative communications for political purposes, create unnecessary tension and distract the Service from its responsibilities. KWIRS will not be distracted from its mandate by such narratives,” said the Management.

It added: “The isolated salary figures being circulated on social media do not represent the full remuneration structure or total emoluments of KWIRS staff. Staff compensation extends beyond regular monthly salaries and includes the following benefits, in accordance with applicable policies and approved arrangements:

“Annual and Performance-Related Bonuses: Annual, festive, and situational bonuses linked to revenue performance milestones and staff performance and situational economic palliatives are paid periodically to staff members

“Annual Leave Allowance: A separate annual payment in addition to regular monthly remuneration.
Staff Welfare and Operational Support: Structured measures designed to support staff welfare and professional development throughout their careers.

“Accordingly, assessing staff remuneration solely on selectively circulated salary figures presents an incomplete picture of the Service’s compensation and welfare structure.

“Management remains committed to staff welfare, motivation and professional development. The Service will continue to strengthen policies and operational processes that support staff well-being and performance, within government-approved resource allocations and applicable administrative frameworks. The Service remains one of the Government Institutions with the most recruitment requests and this is a testament of Management’s commitment to staff welfare.

“KWIRS urges members of the public, taxpayers and other stakeholders to disregard unverified and misleading narratives, verify information before sharing it, and rely on official Service communications for accurate information about its operations and staff policies.

“All stakeholders are encouraged to refrain from politicising internal administrative matters or spreading claims capable of undermining institutional harmony and public confidence.

“KWIRS remains focused on its statutory responsibilities and committed to mobilising revenue for the economic growth and sustainable development of Kwara State.”