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Shekau’s Capture and Implication for National Security

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If I had any doubt that it is end game for Boko Haram madman, Abubakar Shekau, it has disappeared with the vow of a 37-year-old Islamic cleric, Ali Ahmad to trek the whole 844 kilometers from Maiduguri to Abuja. Recent history teaches us that people make such declarations when they sense a definite outcome. Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Tukur Buratai had a few days ago handed a 40-day deadline to the Theatre Commander, Operation Lafiya Dole, Major General Ibrahim Attahiru, to capture Shekau.

The directive came at a time when remnant of the terror group made a renewed desperate push to revive their terror attacks. Only that previous claims of attacks on soft targets have now been proven beyond reasonable doubt. There is equally the desperation on the part of the group to claim or accept responsibility for any violence that they can lay claim to. If it were possible, Boko Haram will claim responsibility for the spate of flooding that has ravaged some cities.

Shekau’s capture, which is now certain, will have ramifications for national security. It must first be noted that the emphasis is on “capture” and not killed. There have been several instances of kills that were soon made doubtful once “another” Shekau make video appearances of releases audio messages. This has prompted speculations of the use of body-doubles by the evil terrorists or suggestions that “Shekau” has become like a title for Boko Haram, which a subsequent successor inherits once the previous occupant gets killed. There have also been talks that the Boko Haram leader trick fighters who bear physical resemblance with him into taking the fall each time the Army closes in.

The equally notorious leader of ISIS, Abū Bakr al-Baghdadi, left the world in similar uncertainty as it remains unclear if he died in a Russian airstrike as reported. It therefore becomes crucial that a terrorist as evil as Shekau is captured alive for humanity to get closure that the piece of thrash has been subtracted from circulation. It does not matter if it is another make-believe Shekau that is captured since, like the peeling of an onion to reveal another layer, the capture of any Shekau is one step closer to moving to another phase of the anti-terror operation in the north-east of Nigeria.

For a start, Shekau’s capture will signal an end to the brutal existence of his faction of Boko Haram, which has so far outdone even the repulsive ISIS in brutal barbarism. The Al-Barnawi faction is child’s play compared to the deranged criminality committed by Shekau and those that pledged loyalty to him. As have been seen with the Islamic State, taking its entrenched leader out of circulation would produce degree of infighting led by possible successors who would then undermine and decimate each other and consequently make the job of the military easier. There is however the outside chance that factions would simply break away and pursue a milder form of the madness they have learnt from Shekau, which means there would then be more groups to contend albeit less violent.

Secondly, capturing Shekau would provide a treasure throve of information that would be useful in dismantling his group’s various cells. He should be able to reveal cells that may not be sufficiently known to law enforcement and security. A bundled plus to this is that more of his straggling fighters should become more amenable to surrendering once the demagogue they look unto for inspiration to murder people is busy singing tunes in captivity. The military must put in place contingency plans for managing a possible uptick in the number of Boko Haram fighters that would rush to surrender once their supremo is nabbed.

This implies that the Americans might have made a mistake by killing al-Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden. Had the goal been taking him into custody as directed in Shekau’s case perhaps they would unravel other facts around his network and possibly get indications on how to tackle ISIS. What if Shekau is able to tell Nigerians the very neighbors that have allowed him free passage to enjoy his life outside Sambisa forest?

The military must prepare for an onslaught of propaganda. Shekau survived this long in the wild not because he is one deft military strategist but because he has allegedly been and is still the beneficiary of support and backing from persons that are highly placed politically, reportedly some of them are serving state officials. The strategy used for dispatching Muhammed Yusuf, Boko Haram’s founder while in police custody will not work under an Army that follows international best practices in its rules of engagement. It must therefore be expected that there will be spirited efforts to discredit not just the revelations Shekau would have to make but there will also be concerted propaganda to discredit the military so that those that would be indicted by the terrorist’s confessions would have excuses to exonerate themselves.

The alternative is for many Nigerian politicians to run away from the country if Shekau is eventually captured alive and made to call the names of his sponsors, partners and the many Boko Haram members that openly blend with government without the people knowing.
The military would therefore do well to begin building fact sheets at this point. Not just of the atrocities committed by Shekau and his Boko Haram killers but they should similarly build up details about persons that intelligence gathering has placed in the same circle as the terrorists, who for now cannot be held to account either for lack of overwhelming evidence or because of political sensitivity. Shekau’s capture will unravel whatever cover such persons had wrongly thought they had. The media must be brought in as partners for national interest in this regard since there is the danger that evil Abubakar Shekau would be reported into becoming a celebrity as experienced in the case of notorious kidnapper, Evans, who was nauseatingly referred to as “billionaire kidnapper”. If national interest matters to us, a captured Shekau must not be allowed to write this story.
Shekau may be the most virulent of the terrorists tormenting Nigeria and his capture requires that the authorities promptly channel attention to the other warlords that are either warring against the nation or are calling their followers to take up arms.

There is Al-Barnawi of the other equally toxic Boko Haram faction, there is the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) is waiting in the wings to replace Boko Haram, separatist groups like IPOB and MASSOB in the southeast and militants in the Niger-Delta. Neither the operation leading to Shekau’s capture nor the euphoria that will come with success should be allowed to distract from the danger that these other terrorists constitute to the land. Where possible simultaneous plans should be put in place for immediate implementation towards countering the threats posed by such.

Once these and other implications of Shekau’s capture for national security are appropriately assessed and addressed, more Nigerians would likely announce the distances they will trek to show appreciation that this blot on national life is finally being wiped off. The entire world has been quaking since Buratai gave that order and without any conspiracy the end of Shekau will reveal more than necessary in the days ahead.

Philip Agbese , a human rights researcher with the Global Amnesty Watch sent in this piece from the United Kingdom.

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Former Kano State governor and 2023 presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso, has revealed that one of his daughters encouraged him to collaborate with former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, during the 2023 general election.

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By: Fabian Apechihin

Kwankwaso made the disclosure on Monday while speaking on Prime Time, a programme on Arise Television.

According to him, many political leaders in Nigeria have failed to understand the mindset, concerns, and aspirations of young Nigerians, especially in the era of social media.

He explained that younger Nigerians are more interested in competent and effective leadership than the ethnic and religious sentiments that often dominate political discussions among older politicians.

“So many things have changed in this country. You have leaders, many of whom don’t even realize what is happening on social media. We have leaders who hardly have any contact with young men and women,” Kwankwaso said.

“People of our age, my age, or especially the age of Atiku, are very few in this country compared to the younger people. The younger people have their own way of thinking, even our children.”

The former Kano governor stated that even within his family, younger members expressed opinions that reflected a desire for political cooperation and better leadership.

“You will be surprised, even during the 2023 election, in my own house, my own daughter was telling me to go and work with Peter Obi,” he said.

“She didn’t say she was obedient, but she wanted me to work together with him, and vice versa.”

Kwankwaso added that while many older politicians remain focused on religion and ethnicity, young Nigerians are more concerned about credible leadership and national progress.

“So you see, there is a lot happening in this country, but people at that level we are talking about don’t even understand,” he stated.

“People are talking about religion. People are talking about ethnicity. People are talking, especially those at our level and age, but the younger people are looking for the right leadership for this country. And I think they are absolutely right.”

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Uba Sani has dismissed reports of a major crisis within the Progressive Governors’ Forum, describing the recent disagreement among members as a minor misunderstanding.

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By: Fabian Apechihin

Sani made the remarks on Monday during an appearance on Politics Today, a programme on Channels Television.

Reports had emerged last week claiming that Hope Uzodimma was removed as chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum and replaced by Peter Mbah following a tense meeting in Abuja.

The reports also alleged that the forum had split into rival factions. While Uzodimma insisted he remained chairman, another bloc was reportedly aligned with Dapo Abiodun and Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq.

However, governors loyal to Uzodimma later passed a vote of confidence in him during a meeting held at the Imo State Lodge in Abuja. President Bola Tinubu was also said to have intervened in the dispute.

Reacting to the controversy, Sani, who serves as vice chairman of the forum, maintained that no leadership change had taken place.

“At the moment, there’s no problem. All the governors are together. His Excellency Hope Uzodimma is the chairman of the Progressive Governors Forum,” he said.

“My humble self, Senator Uba Sani, is the vice chairman of the Progressive Governors Forum.”

The Kaduna governor stated that disagreements are normal in a democratic setting and should not be blown out of proportion.

“In my own opinion, I don’t think it’s a serious issue, like many people try to make it look like it’s a very serious issue,” he said.

“Because, you know, in everything we are talking about democracy, people can choose to disagree and agree. So, in my own opinion, it was just a slight misunderstanding.”

Sani assured party supporters that the matter had been resolved and dismissed speculation of any division within the forum.

“I don’t think you will hear anything again. I can assure you, you can’t hear anything again,” he stated.

“It’s just a slight disagreement, not a serious issue, but a slight disagreement. But it has been resolved.”

He further added that if there had truly been a leadership change, he would have automatically assumed office as chairman in his capacity as vice chairman.

“And of course, if there’s any change of leadership, sitting here as the vice chairman, I could have taken over,” he said.

“But I can tell you, I was there. And I was the one who made that statement clear that we are united. Everything is okay.”

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Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has warned opposition parties against zoning the 2027 presidential ticket to the South, arguing that such a decision could make it easier for President Bola Tinubu to secure re-election.

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In a statement released by his camp, Atiku maintained that fielding another southern candidate against a sitting southern president would be politically ineffective and unsupported by Nigeria’s democratic history.

According to the statement, opposition leaders should concentrate on forming a strong and united coalition capable of defeating the ruling party rather than making what it described as emotional or symbolic political choices.

Atiku’s camp questioned how a southern opposition candidate could realistically defeat a southern incumbent president.

“At the core of the question is: how does a Southern opposition candidate realistically unseat a sitting Southern president?” the statement read.

It further argued that Nigeria’s political history offers no example of such an outcome, warning that insisting on that strategy could amount to entering the election already defeated.

The statement added that if opposition parties insist on zoning the presidency to the South, they might as well allow Tinubu to seek re-election unchallenged by a rival candidate from the same region.

According to Atiku’s camp, such a strategy lacks the political strength, national spread, and electoral advantage needed to unseat an incumbent president.

The former vice president’s camp also criticised supporters of southern zoning, describing their position as “intellectually dishonest” and disconnected from present political realities.

“Defeating an incumbent president requires realism, not romanticism; strategy, not sentiment; honesty, not selective memory,” the statement added.

It urged opposition politicians to decide whether their focus is on making symbolic political statements or genuinely winning power in the 2027 election.

The statement stressed that opposition politics should be driven by practical electoral calculations and broad national coalition-building rather than emotional considerations.

On the issue of fairness and power rotation, Atiku’s camp argued that by 2027, the South would have spent more years in power than the North during Nigeria’s current democratic dispensation.

According to the statement, the South would have occupied the presidency for 18 years, while the North would have held power for only 10 years within the same period.

“It becomes difficult to understand the justice in an argument that seeks to deepen an already existing imbalance under the guise of equity,” the statement noted.

The camp also accused some supporters of southern zoning of selective memory, recalling that many of them backed former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 despite calls at the time for power to return to the North.

“It is intellectually dishonest for those who supported a Southern presidency in 2011 to now posture as custodians of rotational justice,” the statement said.

While acknowledging the Southeast’s aspiration to produce Nigeria’s president, Atiku’s camp criticised what it described as “transactional political bargaining” and “symbolic tokenism.”

The statement warned against political arrangements allegedly aimed at satisfying personal ambitions without creating a genuine and sustainable pathway for the Southeast to attain power.

“Principles do not become sacred only when they align with personal ambition,” the statement concluded.

It urged opposition parties and stakeholders to focus on building a broad-based national alliance capable of defeating Tinubu in 2027 rather than becoming distracted by divisive zoning debates.

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