By
Yakubu Ahmed-BK
It is becoming clear by the day, that the 2023 elections, as far as the presidential contest is concerned, is a two horse race. The fight for the coveted office, is, largely between Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. Both Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, are fringe players whose chances are, in reality, non existent.
Of course, the bulk of the votes, to make or mar any of the two leading contestants is, going by the experiences of the past, domiciled in the North. For either Tinubu or Atiku to become president, how any of them fares in the North becomes critical in the long run.
I give it to Tinubu to coast to victory owing to a number of factors. Atiku is a perennial loser; a desperate one at that. His desperation can be gleaned from his penchant to jump ship each time the result of his many misadventures become evident to him. Yes, Buhari too had tried his hands in the presidency on a number of occasions without success, until in 2015, when, he learnt, the hard way and at the 11th hour, that he alone, and despite his cult-like followership in the North, couldn’t just nick it. The inescapable reality of the Nigerian electoral situation is that no region on its own strength, can make anyone president by fiat. The history of the alliances in the 60’s up to the very last one, had proved those realities. And this reality, is even more evident and instructive now.
One good point in the case of both Tinubu and his running mate Kashim Shettima is that none of them has ever lost any election they have entered into in their respective illustrious political careers, even when the two never held office at the same time. They have been progressive politicians all their life and, despite the differences in time when they both held offices of governors, cultural differences between their states and the nature of the challenges they faced, they shared in the manner they had individually developed their respective states amidst daunting challenges, as well as resource constraints that arose out of man made hiccups and competing demands.
It is still instructive to speak about the achievements of the two men, in relation to what Atiku Abubakar has achieved in terms of provision of infrastructure, mentorship of people who had remained critical to the evolution of tested class of leaders, bridge building capacity across the nation and being there for the people at times of their needs.
Tinubu has been able to build time-tested bridges across the country and the role he played in the emergence of Buhari and the APC in 2015 and the re-election in 2019 was a watershed in political calculations and winning strategy. Tinubu has played his part to the North. Whatever judgement is passed on the Buhari administration holds no water at all in how the capacity of Tinubu is judged. Buhari was prodded all the years back and will ultimately be judged collectively by most Nigerians who, rightly or wrongly believed in his capabilities and his records of service. His track records as a no nonsense, incorruptible and unsmiling general were brought to the fore as evident of his suitability for the job. Tinubu too, combined the cult-followership of Buhari in the North and the block voting pattern in the South West to wrestle power out of the hands of a People’s Democratic Party which has messed up big time and had placed the nation on the path of ruin.
The question is: is Tinubu capable? Does he have a capable running mate in Kashim Shettima? The capacity of Tinubu and Shettima, based on their track records were never in doubt at all. They provide the nation a window to get it right now.
And the North knew that it is indeed a pay back time. In any case, it is in the interest of the North to play by the rules of the game, that is to allow the South to take its own shot in 2023 because, for the country to maintain and sustain this integral unifying anchor, nothing should be done to interrupt this chain, not even for the North to become overtly insensitive to the threat to national integration which billowed out of that feeling of marginalization which nearly tore the fabrics of our survival as a nation with our kind of diversity.
Atiku Abubakar was reckless, dangerously insensitive and selfish. He contested and elbowed his way to the PDP presidential ticket against the grains of his party’s constitution which recognized the need to respect power shift between the North and the South every eight years. Because he had the financial war chest and is consumed by a dangerous and desperate personal ambition to become President, he bought his way through to the ticket.
The good thing about it is that the North will play its part to keep the flag of integration and inclusiveness flying by voting for the APC ticket. But we must recognize the fact that the North has two presidential candidates in Atiku and Kwankwaso and the reality is that the votes in the North win be skewed in that order. Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso would each get their mouthfuls, with Tinubu chewing the chunk. I see Tinubu getting the upper hand even if what he fill his mouth with will not be big enough to say he will be home and dry. This is the juncture where the votes from the South West should come in, in torrents to separate the men from the boys. The South East is likely going Obi’s way, largely, and the South South will be the battle ground to consolidate on the constitutional demand for parity.
The Yorubas should vote like they have never done before. They
must come out in their numbers to vote and to become the swing states to sway victory to Tinubu’s side. The same role Kano, Borno and Katsina have played in producing the votes to shut the mouths of Atiku and his ilk and swayed victory Buhari way, will be the same critical role voters in the South West should play in 2023 to shut the mouths of the bigots who have arrayed against the nation and whose only desire is to corner power again, not because they have anything to offer, but because their marabouts have looked into a crystal ball and have thus given the office to them.
The Muslim/Muslim ticket brouhaha is just a smokescreen deployed by the slavetakers to steal their way to power to finish the anti-Nigeria agenda which they spent 16 years unfolding, but which Nigerians put a stop to in 2015.
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