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THE DECEPTIVE TACTICS OF IPOB

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By Emeka Jerome

All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near –Sun Tzu

In the words of the revered war strategist Sun Tzu, deception is a critical component of war execution. Echoing Sun Tzu’s teachings, the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has refined the craft of deception, using a tapestry of falsehoods to advance and achieve their objectives. This treatise will highlight how the group has continually employed deception as a weapon of war to deceive gullible members, keep the public attracted to them and deepen its presence in the south east. No doubt, IPOB’s ascent to prominence was founded upon a bedrock of deception right from its inception. Spearheaded by Nnamdi Kanu, the emergence of IPOB was an outgrowth of the supposedly reformed Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), a pro-secessionist group that had already seen its power wane and was known for its cunning activities and propensity for violence. Although IPOB came into being in 2012, Kanu had already garnered a significant following due to his inflammatory broadcasts on Radio Biafra, a responsibility he had taken on as a member of MASSOB. Recognising that the decline of MASSOB could spell the end of his influence, Kanu, aiming to secure both relevance and financial gain, intensified his facade of advocating for Biafra’s freedom. He accomplished this by spreading propaganda against the Nigerian Government and fostering optimism among the susceptible members of the public. By rebranding and emerging as a new entity, IPOB projected an image of a fresh movement seeking self-determination while carefully avoiding associations with MASSOB’s past activities. His strategy worked because in no time, Kanu assumed command over the sphere of IPOB’s operations, rapidly ascending to its helm.

When IPOB started its brand of agitation, it was cheered on. Nnamdi Kanu became an overnight messiah. The poor vulnerable uneducated market apprentices became his ardent followers. He exploited them. Kanu adequately deployed his expertise of Radio Biafra to deceive. By broadcasting incendiary messages and misinformation, he manipulated emotions and perceptions of the public to IPOB’s advantage. The false narratives he propagated about the Nigerian Government’s actions and intentions fuelled anger and frustration among his followers. The use of hate speech and derogatory language against Government, portraying them as oppressors and enemies of the people painted a one-sided narrative of victimhood which generated sympathy for their cause, making it difficult for their followers to critically assess the situation. By leveraging international media attention, IPOB amplified their narrative on a global scale. Sensationalized headlines and stories about their activities played into their strategy, allowing them to maintain the façade of a legitimate movement fighting for self-determination while downplaying or omitting their more radical actions. The group while orchestrating actions that provoked responses from the Nigerian Government, created martyrs and gained international sympathy. Most of their tactics aimed to paint IPOB as a peaceful movement unjustly oppressed by a hostile government, thus diverting attention from their own aggressive activities. Ironical!

Unsurprisingly, Igbo diaspora across Europe and America began to join IPOB. Politicians back home were consulting its leader, Kanu. His house became a Mecca of sorts. Kanu got emboldened and then, combative. He became proud and dictatorial. His words were feared. He aspired by every means to be like Ojukwu, famed for his lionic roars. Kanu had disciples. Within this newfound position, Kanu artfully manipulated the collective sentiment, leveraging deception to foment hostility towards the government under the guise of championing the elusive cause of Biafran freedom. His financial resources began to significantly swell in different hard currencies. He skillfully garnered financial support from both the rich and the poor under the ploy of rallying donations to fuel the secessionist agenda. Simultaneously, as his personal coffers grew richer, he persistently peddled false hope to his followers, deceitfully and heartlessly portraying himself as their champion in the struggle. Kanu became bolder and went ahead to establish a military Wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN). Operating ostensibly to counter Fulani herdsmen in the South East or so we were told, the ESN initiated a series of assaults designed to stoke the flames of ethnic conflict and destabilise the nation. Paradoxically, the reported activities of Fulani herdsmen have notably diminished, however IPOB’s actions in the region has remained persistent.

In what initially appeared to be a child’s play in the beginning, soon transformed the South East into a breeding ground for violence, marked by a surge in assassinations, bloodshed, intimidation and various forms of mayhem. Security agencies sent to the zone to restore order became targets for annihilation. The group’s orchestrations have, indeed, in the spirit of Sun Tzu’s teachings, harnessed deception’s formidable power to its advantage. Recognising that Kanu, a Nigerian based in London and his group held the potential to plunge the country into anarchy if left unchecked, the Nigerian government took proactive steps. It proscribed the group and went a step further by extraditing Kanu back to Nigeria. This was to ensure he faced charges for the chaos and destabilization he allegedly caused in the Southeastern region. In response, the group members protested and began issuing out senseless sit-at-home orders every Monday. Doom awaited whoever dared to come out on days meant for the so called sit-at home. Even school children were not spared. The young and old met same fate. For each day sit at home order was enforced, millions of naira was lost. Trading, economic, educational activities were halted. The sick does not dare to go to the hospital. Regardless of the protests voiced by the local inhabitants, IPOB ruthlessly dealt with anyone who dared to defy their directives, ironically targeting the very individuals they professed to champion and liberate. Deception at the highest core! For the people, the snake they nurtured in their bosom has now turned around to bite them.

With Kanu now in custody and facing legal proceedings, his disciple Simon Ekpa, in faraway Finland, capitalized on his mentor’s influence to achieve his own rise to prominence. Recognising the opportune moment for him to also cash out, Ekpa launched a deadlier faction called the Autopilot and afterwards the Biafra Government in Exile. He continues to give false sense of hope to liberate Biafrans while using them to swim in millions. Same as his mentor, it has now become unmistakably clear that IPOB’s motivations are primarily driven by financial gain. Under the pretext of calling for the release of Kanu, he dishes out orders to for sit-at-home, organises fundraising frequently with the false and deceptive narrative of using the money to fund ESN. How laughable. Ekpa became more vicious. The South East is currently in a mess. Sit-at-home orders stretches for weeks with zero considerations of how it negatively affects the poor residents. Meanwhile the person issuing out the directive is doing so from the comfort of his home abroad.

IPOB’s skillful use of deception as a strategic weapon of war becomes even more apparent when considering recent developments. They are now attempting to distance themselves from the autopilot faction of IPOB led by Simon Ekpa. IPOB is doing double speak. At one instance, it wants to distance itself from Sit-at home. At the other, it states that though it started it, Simon Ekpa is not implementing it its own way. But at least, it was Kanu and IPOB that started it. They are in agreement. While they vehemently deny that the Eastern Security Network (ESN) engages in combative and violent activities, this assertion contradicts the evidence provided by the numerous arrests made and the ongoing campaigns carried out by the military and other security agencies. As the number of arrests increases, IPOB intensifies its efforts to disassociate itself from these individuals, seemingly attempting to detach their image from these actions. Yet, in ironic twist, they continue to advocate for the release of these very individuals they claim not to be affiliated with. The contradictory stance of denying membership while concurrently issuing press releases about the detention of their members raises questions about the veracity of their claims. It is as if they are performing a delicate balancing act, trying to maintain an image of innocence while supporting those apprehended.

Furthermore, Simon Ekpa’s frequent calls for a sit-at-home protest have created a conundrum for the group. In light of the public’s skepticism and widespread condemnation, they appear to be shifting blame onto Ekpa’s faction, using this as an opportunity to once again deceive the public into believing that they are the virtuous side. But it is evident as daylight that in a larger context, IPOB’s insistence on non-violence stands in stark contrast to past actions. During the EndSARS protests, Nnamdi Kanu’s directive to his followers to burn down Lagos demonstrated their potential for incitement. The ensuing chaos and destruction following this directive were widely observed. Their claims of nonviolence also clash with their association with the Ambazonian secessionist group in Cameroon, an entity known for its aggressive tactics. The inconsistency is further highlighted by their clashes with the Army and Police in the South East. These confrontations raise questions about their true intentions and undermine their assertions of nonviolence. In the face of these complex and often contradictory actions, IPOB’s manipulation of information and narratives emerges as a deliberate and sophisticated strategy to shape public perception, rally support and maintain a facade of innocence even as evidence points to a different reality.

Another strategy being deployed by IPOB is the sustained misleading narrative that all rival factions other than its own are sponsored by the Federal Government or its agencies. This claim is distorted and contradicts the evident struggle for supremacy between Kanu and Ekpa. It is important to note that Kanu broke away from MASSOB. Ekpa is only traversing a similar path. Why then is Kanu angry and propagating falsehood for the purpose of deception? At the moment, the times are not good for the IPOB. It is in dire straits and fight of its life. It is in a big struggle as its days are numbered. Sooner than later, like its predecessor Biafra-Republic-agitation-associations, will become extinct and go into oblivion. This is not a false prophesy. It is a matter of time. Again, like the South East elite and governments, IPOB has got a wild cat for a pet and it turned to feed on it. All is not well with Kanu and IPOB. They have both crumbled and crawling. There is fire on the mountain and IPOB is in disarray. It is struggling. Kanu is in detention. His IPOB is in shatters. Disorganised. Only vultures have surrounded him. Everything is wrong. There is leadership tussle. IPOB has broken into factions. There is Simon Ekpa autopilot. There is Chika Edozien Directorate of State (DOS). IPOB is in a big fight over its finances. Kanu’ s younger brothers want to control it. In Germany, Italy, London, France among others IPOB huge funds is at the heart of a fight. Some accounts have been blocked. Others are objects of litigation. Kanu is worried. He is losing control. There is a bigger fight among Kanu’s legal team. No cohesion. Some feel entitled. There’s contest over who is the lead counsel. Some lawyers who never had addresses or any profitable ventures have found rest in IPOB. Some who couldn’t have won the simplest civil cases in a customary court are cashing out on IPOB and fleecing Kanu. Poor him.

While IPOB burns, Southeast also burns. Eastern Security Network, unknown gunmen, kidnappers, hostage takers, warlords, combatants, killers, marauders, blood suckers, violent vigilantes have taken over the region. Only a reign of terror is visible. IPOB is helpless. Simon Ekpa, from far away Finland is fueling the crisis. Violently forced sit-at-home order is enforced by those IPOB struggles to deny are not its members. In the absence of Kanu, Ekpa has tried to mimic him in voice, attitude and carriage. The kill-them-order, has accentuated. Ekpa tries to outdo Kanu. Ironically, Kanu is in denial. He and IPOB are desperately denying that Ekpa isn’t their member or working for them.

A time was when Kanu publicly called for attacks on Nigerian Soldiers and other law enforcement agents including the police. Kanu called for violent attack of fulani herdsmen. He called many Igbo politicians names. He called them Efulefu. What has Ekpa done differently? IPOB is just intelligent by half. Now, the organisation and Kanu want Monday sit-at-home cancelled but used for Economic Empowerment Day (EED) and call/march for his unconditional release. Any difference? Whether as sit-at-home or EED or call for Kanu’s release, is it not the same? Double speak! The new plan is even more dangerous. It will bring Kanu’s faction of IPOB into confrontation with Ekpa’s. Then blood will flow. A bird that leaves the ground and perches on the anthill is still on the ground. This is an Igbo adage. Kanu claims IPOB is not responsible for the dastardly acts in the South East. But he has not denied tasking ESN to be bloody. Even now, he tries to deploy the ESN for certain accomplishments. Initially, we were told ESN was fighting Fulani herdsmen. But is that still true? We were told it was about Buhari. Is he still there?

There is another angle we are ignoring. Kanu has never denied not to have committed most of the things he is accused of. His very dull infantile defence is that he did that in the UK, a jurisdiction not covered by Nigeria. Fact is that Kanu and his cohorts have injured the South East, Ndigbo and humanity. History will not judge him right. He may pontificate and grandstand. He may look for scapegoats and point accusing fingers to “innocent” persons and places. He has destroyed his homeland. He has destroyed Igbo culture, value and ethical discipline. Igboland is in ruins, the type never suffered during the civil war. While IPOB thinks or believes that its tactics are superb and impregnable, they are rather self-destructive. The tactics have not only impeded peace in the South East but inhibited the resolution of the crisis and perhaps, encouraged the continued incarceration of Kanu.

At the end, Ndigbo will understand the essence of the current agitation. They will understand that it is a complete ruse. It is a manipulative deception; a heist organised by some negatively ambitious young men who, in their desire to be rich, started a variant of 419/Yahoo Yahoo. It worked for them. They got the money and attention of the vulnerable. They used intimidation, harassment and fear mongering to actualise their aim. The bone of contention among IPOB leaders is about how to keep and share the booty. The one behind the bars wants to maintain a control from detention. The money is so huge to be left in the hands of others. Kanu is voracious for money. IPOB is rich and the funds cannot just be left like that. The agitation is no longer about Biafra or Ndigbo. It is about Money, Women and Power. It is an ego fight among select narcissists. The IPOB leaders do not want the Igbo followers to know this. It will not be good for their narrative and end goal. It will deflate the deceptive tactics. Keeping the propaganda and fake news alive is the best they can do. The deceptions work, at least, for now. But the lies will definitely die someday. There is a short span of life for lies and deceit. Sooner than later, light and knowledge will come upon Ndigbo. May that day come. And quickly too.

Emeka Jerome, writes in from Umuahia, Abia State.

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Opinion

Disambiguating Jurisdictional Boundaries of Federal and State Governments in Electricity Regulation

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By Emmanuel Ukera, Esq

The enactment of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (CFRN),1999 (Fifth Alteration) (No.17) Act,2023 and the Electricity Act, 2023 which paved way for full devolution of intra-state electricity regulatory powers to state governments have stirred up a lot of contestations amongst stakeholders than ever imagined.

The bone of contention appears rooted in the misconception amongst stakeholders regarding the extent of the regulatory powers available to state governments under the current multitier regulatory regime recognized by the CFRN (Fifth Alteration) (No.17) Act,2023 and the EA,2023. One of such misconceptions which has gained traction in the media is that the recent constitutional alteration and the consequent enactment of the EA, 2023 have for the first time devolved electricity regulatory powers to sub-nationals to the extent that the newly established State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) can now regulate ( in all its ramifications), electricity generation, transmission and distribution activities within state boundaries to the exclusion of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission ( NERC), which hitherto regulated electricity activities nationwide.

Relatedly, there are those who are of the strong opinion that under the current legal regime, power plants located within state boundaries should fall under the overriding regulatory powers of SERCs including full takeover and control of the eight (8) power plants now operated by the eight successor generating companies (GENCOs) that emerged after the conclusion of privatization in 2013.

It has also been argued that the EA,2023, is an iniquitous and needless piece of legislation which has abolished cross-subsidization and provided the framework for promotion of energy inequalities especially considering the disproportionate distribution of electricity infrastructure between the northern and southern states of Nigeria.

The instant intervention seeks to disambiguate the jurisdictional boundaries of the SERCs and NERC under the current legal regime and shed light on recent debates.

To fully understand the jurisdictional confines of the two levels of governments regarding electricity regulation in Nigeria, it must be stated that the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as altered) and the Electricity Act, 2023 constitute the primary sources of electricity law in Nigeria currently. Furthermore, there are other federal enactments that must be taken into consideration when discussing the regulatory powers of the two levels of government.

These include the Standard Organization of Nigeria (Establishment)Act which is the general legislation on national technical standards; Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission Act which is the general legislation on competition, consumer protection, and anti-trust; Climate Change Act ,2021 which deals with climate change mitigation and adaptation bearing in mind Nigeria’s international commitment to climate change; Water Resources Act, CAP W2, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria (LFN) ,2004 which regulates the planning, development and use of water resources that affects more than one state; National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (Establishment) Act; and the Environmental Impact Assessment Act, CAP.E12, LFN,2004 which are relevant in the area of environmental impact of electricity projects or related activities in the power sector. Additionally, licensed electricity entities operating under the regulatory purview of state regulators are expected to comply with extant federal enactments on company income tax, personal income tax and value added tax etc .

The above, amongst others constitute the gamut of laws that are critical in disambiguating the legislative and regulatory competences of the two levels of government in Nigeria on the issue of electricity and should be well understood by key players in the power sector.

With respect to the powers of the two levels of government under the Constitution, one must recall that prior to 1999, the business of electricity generation, transmission and distribution was for decades under the sole control of the defunct National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) as a vertically integrated monopoly.

The defunct NEPA operated a redial national grid system comprising of on-grid power plants, high voltage transmission lines and distribution lines through which electricity albeit epileptically was supplied to Nigerian nationwide without regard to geographic boundaries of state governments.

This integrated high voltage system of interconnected generation plants, transmission lines, substations and related facilities crisscrossing states of the Federation and beyond that was operated by NEPA as a unified network is what is essentially referred to as the national grid system.

However, following the promulgation of the CFRN,1999, electric power was included as an item on the concurrent list. In this regard, item F, paragraphs 13,14, and 15, Part II, Second Schedule to the CFRN,1999 (“the Constitution”) defined the legislative competence of the respective levels of government regarding electricity.

The implication of the aforementioned constitutional provisions is that, since 1999, state governments were at liberty to invest in electricity within their domains including the power to set up of state grids and regulate intra-state electricity where they possess the wherewithal. No state government took advantage of this constitutional provision either due to lack of the political will or some other inexplicable reasons.

It is, however, important to note that prior to constitutional alteration in 2023, the powers of State Houses of Assembly to legislate on intra-state electricity generation, transmission and distribution activities was greatly impeded by the restriction under paragraph 14 (b), Part II, Second Schedule to the Constitution “to areas not covered by the national grid system within that State”.

It was this restrictive phrase “to areas not covered by the national grid system within that State” that was essentially deleted through the enactment of the CFRN,1999 (Fifth Alteration) (No.17) Act,2023. According to the long title to the CFRN,1999 (Fifth Alteration) (No,17) Act,2023, the constitutional alteration was intended to “allow states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity in areas covered by the national grid”…. What is apparent from the foregoing is that it is not correct to say that the CFRN,1999, (Fifth Alteration) Act (No.17) Act,2023 for the first time transferred “electric power” from the exclusive list to the concurrent list as it is often reported in some sections of the media. Electric power was an item in the concurrent list to the CFRN 1999 and remains so even after the said constitutional alteration of 2023.

What the CFRN,1999 (Fifth Alteration) (No.17) Act,2023 did is to simply delete the inhibitive words “to areas not covered by the national grid system within that State” to allow state governments legislate on and regulate intra-state electricity activities and most fundamentally “generate, transmit and distribute electricity in areas covered by the national grid” as expressly stated in the long title.

In other words, the constitutional alteration was not aimed at empowering state governments to embark on far reaching regulatory measures that would conflict or undermine the regulatory powers of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) such as taking over NERC licensed on-grid power plants, setting tariffs or slashing tariffs for electricity procured through the National Wholesale Electricity Market(NWEN) or regulation of other activities on the national grid .

The constitutional alteration was primarily intended to promote investments within state boundaries without being inhibited by the presence of the national grid or component of it within such state boundaries.

In simple terms, by virtue of this constitutional alteration, state governments can now embark on embedded generation, mini-grids, licensing and regulation of independent electricity distribution networks (IEDNs) and independent electricity distribution network operators (IEDNOs), and even set up state grid even if such activities have bearing on the national grid.

Unfortunately, most state governments have since focused on issuing controversial regulatory measures that will throw the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) in disarray and put the state regulators at cross-purposes with NERC instead of taking initiatives that will boost investments and ultimately improve electricity access to their citizens, the latter being the primary intendment of the constitutional alteration.

Furthermore, the powers of state governments to legislate on and regulate intra-state electricity activities without being inhibited by the presence of the national grid as recognized by the CFRN (Fifth Alteration) (No.17) Act,2023 must be understood against the preeminence powers of the federal government to ” make laws for the Federation or any part thereof with respect to — electricity and establishment of electric power stations, generation and transmission, damming of water for electricity generation, cross-border electricity trading and distribution, promotion and establishment of the national grid system, regulation of right of any person to use, work, operate any plant, apparatus, equipment or work designed for the supply or use of electrical energy as provided under paragraph 13 (a)(b)(c)(d)(e)and(f) part II, Second Schedule to the Constitution all of which remains unaffected by the recent constitutional alteration.

The implication is that it will amount to constitutional infraction for any state government to set or approve parallel technical standards and operational codes or set up an agency for enforcement of technical standards under the guise exercising intra-state electricity regulatory powers.

Similarly, while state governments are at liberty to invest around the national grid presence within their state boundaries, in deference to the powers of the federal Government to regulate the national grid system as indicated above, any investment around the national grid including activities, transactions and services that have bearing on the national grid system will still require the authorization (not license) of NERC before such can legally take place. Such activities, transactions and services that will require NERC authorization may include : interconnection to, injection into, wheeling of electricity over, withdrawal of electricity from the national grid; sale and purchase of electricity, the delivery of which requires the use of the national grid; provision and receipt of ancillary services to or from the national grid; use of metering, control, dispatch and other systems required by the Grid Code for interconnection and wheeling services etc.

The law is trite, the apex court has held in the case of **AG. Ogun State v.Aberuagba &Ors (1985)LPELR-3164** that the powers of state governments to legislate on matters in the concurrent list to the Constitution is limited by the constitutional doctrines inconsistency and covering the field.

One other issue that requires clarification here is the claim in some quarters that the EA,2023, is an iniquitous and needless piece of legislation which has abolished cross-subsidization and provided the framework for promotion of energy inequalities. This is an erroneous impression borne out of lack proper understanding of the objectives, principles and rigorous processes that culminated into the enactment of the EA,2023.

To begin with, the issue of cross-subsidization was introduced through the Power Consumer Assistance Fund (PCAF) and first given statutory recognition under the Electric Power Sector Reform Act,2005 (now repealed) but retained under part XV of the EA,2023.

However, with the full decentralization of electricity including policy matters, the framework for subsidy administration in the NESI is currently undergoing review in the National Assembly bearing in mind the need to allow for the two levels of government to take independent policy decisions on matters of electricity subsidy and also determine fairly, which categories of electricity consumers should bear the brunt of cross subsidization under the current multitier electricity industry.

It must also be added that the Electricity Act,2023 is not a framework for promotion of energy inequalities but was introduced following a rigorous stakeholder engagement including the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) to replace the EPSRA,2005, the latter being a reform legislation that became unsuitable for the next phase of the electricity market after conclusion of the privatization exercise in 2013.One of the key features of the EA,2023 as a compelling framework for addressing energy inequalities is the provision of Section 110 which imposes an obligation on NERC to ensure fair spread of transmission and other electricity infrastructure across the country. Similarly, the EA,2023 for the first time made provision for integrated resource planning and leveraging on this provision the Federal Executive Council recently approved the National Integrated Electricity Policy and Implementation Plan,2024 which takes into consideration the peculiar strengths and weaknesses of the various state governments. It is expected that state governments will take advantage of this paradigm shift that recognizes a robust role for wind,biomas, solar and other renewable sources of energy in addressing perceived or existing energy inequalities.

From the foregoing, it can be safely concluded that the current legal regime for regulation electricity in Nigeria as articulated above leaves no room for confusion or controversy. With about 14 states already enjoying regulatory autonomy within their respective state boundaries, NERC should focus on regulation of the NWEN and activities on the national grid system while states should focus on retail activities within their respective boundaries without encroaching on the jurisdiction of NERC.

The primary focus of state governments at this stage of the market should be to adopt state integrated electricity policies and plans that will among other things leverage on potentials for generation and consumption of electricity from renewable sources such as wind, solar and biomass and as a priority integrate a large number of big self-generation consumers into the emerging state markets. A robust plan for integration of self-generation consumers into the nascent state electricity markets can in the short and medium terms be achieved through embedded generation, issuance of licenses for IEDNs/IEDNOs and mini-grids etc.

The Federal Government through the Ministry of power should equally fast track and streamline ongoing transmission and distribution upgrades under the auspices of FGN Power to allow for efficient evacuation of generated power across state boundaries where such states are in position to execute bilaterals that recognize NERC tariffs. State governments should avoid toying with the idea of unstructured tariffs which has left the National Wholesale Electricity Market in crippling debts.

The weakest links in the Nigerian power value chain today remains the transmission and distribution segments and with concerted efforts being made by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,GCFR to settle legacy debts owed GENCOs, radical actions need to be taken to conclude ongoing upgrade of the transmission and distribution assets for operational and financial synergy along the national grid.


Barrister Ukera, Esq can be reached on emmauks@yahoo.com

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Opinion

Opinion: CHOICES, ATTITUDES, AND CONSEQUENCES: HOW LEADERSHIP AND FOLLOWERSHIP CONSPIRE TO UNDERMINE NIGERIA’S PROGRESS*

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By: A G Abubakar

Society throws up a leadership it deserves. Better still, it elects a leadership that reflects its character. Life is about choices and outcomes. And, this holds true in all major faiths. The Qur’an says, ‘indeed, Allah will not change the condition of a people until they change what is within themselves.” (Qur’an 13:11). The Bible corroborates this and more, to the effect “that the sluggard who does not plough in autumn; he will seek at harvesting and have nothing.” (Proverbs 20:4). It went on to state in Galatians 6:7-8 that “…whatever a man sows, he will reap in return.” These divine injunctions simply meant choices have consequences.

The inability to make informed choices or to deliberately ignore taking informed decisions has been at the core of Nigeria’s existential challenges. Nigerians love to turn divine injunction on their heads, in preference for sentiments and emotions, then turn around to seek the Creator’s interventions. So cheap. So evasive.

Buhari represented a larger Northern sentiment of the time in 2015. Tinubu rode on a similar bandwagon, though with diametrically different consequences. Actually, Tinubu is proving to be a backlash. If Buhari was too laid back with a compromised vision, Tinubu lacked a sense of proportion and character. The two political actors might have achieved their ambitions, but the nation’s dream of greatness is neither here nor there. This is because the two deficits found between the duo – vision and character – incidentally are the main ingredients that drive national transformation. The two, unfortunately, have been missing. The question was; Why do Nigerians recruit leaders who are lacking in vision and/or character?

The answers lie in the jaundiced perception of issues and the degradation of ethical values. Years of poor governance had compromised the citizens’ vision as much as their sense of brotherhood and patriotism. The prolonged failure of leadership has simply turned segments of the society on each other, with little respect for the common good: Muslims on Christians, herders on farmers, the young against the old, the poor versus the rich, the minority slugging it out with the majority, etc. The nation has become one giant ocean of mutual distrust, rendering, every decision suspect, and every move, self-serving. As this disposition persists, every known guardrail of social and ethical values simply varnishes, leaving society bare, and vulnerable, especially its leadership recruitment processes, which had become highly ineffective with the concomitant negative impacts on life, property, and socioeconomic development. Today’s Nigeria is a two-horse race between a compromised leadership and a poor followership as to which one becomes the undertaker of the nation called Nigeria.

The rot in Nigeria might have been induced by leadership, which obviously takes the larger part of the blame, but the followership seemed to have learned faster. And because of the masses’ overwhelming size, they have succeeded in foisting anarchy upon society seamlessly. Here was a society where people do not see anything wrong in destroying or vandalizing public property, observing simple order of things in breach, taking advantage of each other in basic interpersonal interactions, hold each other accountable, and even take civic duties like elections for granted. Nigerians simply “enjoy” living in mess, often revealing their capacity to self-regulate.

For illustrations: nearly all the non-concrete guardrails on the highways are gone. Iron and aluminium structures stripped. Even the concrete demarcation is being chipped away in search of the stabilizing iron rods. Electric cables, poles and fittings, and manhole covers are not safe. In rural areas and city suburbs, schools, hospitals, and related public (even private) buildings are not safe. It’s common sight to see roofs, windows, doors, furniture, etc. gone, leaving the structures like animal shades/pens.

The latest tragedy was the bringing down of power towers along major arteries just to steal the installations. Though initially blamed on insurgents and terrorists, the unwholesome practice had been rife in the southeast and now catching up in the northeast. Many enclaves have been thrown into needless darkness because of these dastardly acts. As if not enough, it has now been allegedly reported that screw bolts holding rail lines in place are being stolen, putting rail travels at risk. But why are Nigerians so base? Many are quick to rationalize the ugly development on the usual alibi of poverty. Really? India, and China until the turn of the twenty first century were the poster boys of poverty in its extreme form, where people at time self-immolate out of frustration, but there was no history of this wanton destruction in their societies. Something must be wrong and peculiar with Nigerians!

The saga doesn’t stop with physical or non-living matters. It is in Nigeria that today, the observance of basic curtesy and etiquette had become a tall call. Even where an individual’s life and safety are at risk. The same clumsy mindsets characterize interpersonal relations in commerce and faith. To cheat is business. To insult each other’s ethno-religious backgrounds is piety and God ordained.

Taking turns to access social services, in the considered opinion of Nigerians, is to be unenlightened. To observe a traffic light for 60 seconds is a waste of time that should be circumvented even when heading to a meaningless or not so urgent destination. Traffic lights have literally been turned into a point of vehicular frustrations and even “death spots.” The story is worse when it comes to taking turns to access services at public functions and journeys. For Nigerians, simple queuing and taking turns is luxury. There has to be commotion. Pushing. Shoving. And fisticuffs. Nothing in the individuals says that it is not right, even those who have been lucky to be exposed to other climes, where they imbibed and were expected to be role models. That residual sense of right and wrong had simply varnished from the DNA of Nigerians. The citizens have simply chosen to operate a society that chocks itself – almost willfully.

Actually, one may be tempted to believe that there is something fundamentally not right with Nigerians and indeed the sub-Saharan peoples. Something that make them poorly capable of coping with the basics of “modernity,” decorum, and critical thinking. Historical experiences can not be discounted from the said peoples’ predicaments, but many parts of the world have strived and risen above similar experiences for good. Why not Nigeria? Why not Haiti, Sudan, DRC, Somalia? Or even the dwellers of the favelas/ghettos around some major cities of the western hemisphere? Why are they perpetually trapped and not the others around the world? Why did the people get mummified in terms of ideas? One hates to hear this, but in diagnosing the problems with Nigerians and indeed peoples of the sub-Saharan extraction, such factors as epigenetic and neuroplasticity – i.e., how environmental and historical experiences in a complex interplay alter people’s worldview/capacity – can not be totally discounted unless one wants to go the metaphysical way.

In parts of the North, it is a common practice for families to be hell-bent on breeding kids beyond their means, which inadvertently leads to the creation of huge pools of poorly adjusted youths. For lacking in proper socialization and parental care, this generation of youths has become the nation’s albatross, serving as easy recruits into all sorts of crimes and criminality. The insurgency movements, the armed terrorists/kidnappers’ ranks, are filled with poorly schooled (western and/or Islamic) young men between the ages of 18-35 years. The same goes for those involved in urban gangsterism, snatching handsets, and breaking into people’s houses. All of it is a consequence of bad choices. But as usual, those concerned Nigerians wouldn’t like to hear of it. They are quick to pass the buck to the government or even justify it through a warped understanding of religious scriptures.

Now, the paradox. If the government has been responsible for all the ills in the Nigerian society, it becomes instructive then for people to take their voting rights seriously. Hold their local elites to account. This is with a view to changing their conditions, but no, not in Nigeria. It is during electioneering seasons that all forms of primordial sentiments are inputted into the process. Religion, region, tribe, and other stripes wound are brought to bear, leaving the polity with fractured outcomes and outlook and compounding governance the more. Now is a vista to register and to restrategize for change, but like a possessed people, the same schism is holding sway. A typical lackadaisical attitude that brought Tinubu and his predecessor Buhari.

Maybe it is uncharitable to put serious blames on the people, especially against the backdrop of being serially handed the short end of socioeconomic and political stick. For, doing so is akin to holding a slave deserving of his master or share the blame for his oppression. A friend succinctly put the predicaments of the hapless masses in Nigeria’s leadership recruitment process as follows, “those who did not contest elections have won; those who lost elections have won; those who were not nominated have won; and those who won have lost.” Protests have been crushed with examplary force, or gavel of a compromised judiciary, not once, twice, but multiple times. And the blood so spilt used in writing warnings that says, “let him who is mad enough to throw his life away, oppose the outcome. Some did and ended up creating emergency widows and orphans as a prize for wanting to secure their civic rights.

Those who chose not to engage in the bloodbath simply restricted their campaigns and three or so corporate citizens – INEC, Security Agencies, and the Judiciary (Judges). No doubt these developments have the potential to create a feeling of despair and resignation. In enlightened climes, they serve as wake-up calls to do the needful; the quest for self-actualisation and fundamental rights. This inherent modicum of mindset seemed to be lacking among Nigerians, which invariably made them culpable in their own challenges and deprivations. A drawback so entrenched, it has impacted their capacity to make rational socio-political choices, and also resist injustices.

Elementary knowledge of economics and the economy would tell that Buhari left power when the economic fundamentals were barely holding. Joblessness, poverty, and security were all being interpreted more on paper than the quality of people’s lives. As for corruption, it was a way of life. Recall the AGF, the AG, the CBN governor, and many more. Ordinarily, Nigerians would have been circumspect in the recruitment of a successor. But that has never been in Nigeria’s character. The new leader should mirror its ugly content as a society. So, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) became the new kid on the block – a new sheriff in town with all baggage in tow. A president that can be likened to a dark matter and a dark energy, operating in fashion that only he knows.

Nobody is perfect in life, but PBAT’s imperfections were self-cultivated, which should have made the larger society apprehensive in recruiting him ab initio. Here was an individual who has every imaginable thing about him suspect except his breathing. From name, parents, village, schools attended, qualifications, business interests, and even his vision of “one indivisible and insolvable Nigeria” (curtesy, Zik), all remain guesses Regardless, Nigerians should not complain. For, as long as they keep doing the same thing, they shouldn’t expect a different outcome. That’s the law of nature and society.

It would, however, seem that Nigerians are condemned to repeat choices with adverse consequences in the future. Something true to type of Robert Kelly’s Followership Model (Kelly, R 1992) that isolated five followership styles based on a combination of engagement and critical thinking. They include exemplary, conformist, passive, alienated, and pragmatist. Exemplary citizens are characterized by active engagement and independent critical thinking, while the passive ones have both limited engagement and critical thinking.

The alienated, possessed independent thinking but limited engagement, and the pragmatist has balanced engagement and critical thinking, too. The conformist may engage actively but with limited critical thinking. It would appear as if Nigerians fall in the conformist group, with sprinklings of maybe the other traits. This, as they kept engaging but with limited attention, paid to leadership qualities with its concomitant repercussions on wellbeing, peace, and development. A case of sowing wind and harvesting whirlwind. Do Boko Haram, armed herders/terrorists, ethnic militia, twenty million kids out of school, etc, ring bell? They are manifestations of bad choices.

Attitudinal change has never been an easy task, especially in a diverse setting like Nigeria. However, the awareness as well as the acknowledgement of the need to do so shall be a crucial first step towards cultivating the culture of rational choice, and also for both leadership and followership to hold themselves mutually accountable. The leadership, by necessity, should take the lead in driving the process. This is to forestall a possible mass disaffection and its dire consequences. It is tantamount to naivety to take nationhood for granted. Let there be a rebirth on the part of both the leadership and followership for Nigeria to work and for all, too.
A.G. Abubakar
agbarewa@gmail.com

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2027: Aisha Yesufu Warns Govt ‘Programming’ Nigerians to Accept Election Glitches

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By: Fabian Apechihin

Renowned activist Aisha Yesufu has accused the Nigerian government of deliberately conditioning citizens to normalise “system glitches” ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Yesufu, a prominent ally of Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, alleged in a post on X that the sudden spike in technical failures across government institutions is no coincidence.

“All of a sudden there are system glitches everywhere! People are being conditioned ahead of time to accept the glitches that will come during the election!” she wrote.

Her remarks come on the heels of several high-profile technical disruptions, including the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board’s (JAMB) apology for errors in the 2025 UTME results, reported malfunctions during the West African Senior School Certificate Examinations (WASSCE), and the controversial glitches on INEC’s Results Viewing Portal (IReV) in the last election.

Yesufu’s comments have sparked fresh debate about Nigeria’s electoral transparency, with many questioning whether recurring “glitches” are genuine errors or part of a broader pattern ahead of 2027.


Want me to also add INEC’s past defense of the IReV glitches for context, so it feels more balanced?

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