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Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to drop to 3.6%- IMF

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Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to drop to 3.6%- IMF

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

 

By Okeoghene Akubuike

Amid a global slowdown, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to reduce to 3.6 per cent before rebounding to 4.2 per cent in 2024.

This is according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) Regional Economic Outlook for SSA: “The Big Funding Squeeze” published on Friday at the World Bank Group/IMF 2023 Spring Meetings in Washington DC.

The report said the slowdown and subsequent rebound in 2024 in the region was in line with global recovery, subsiding inflation, and a winding down in monetary policy tightening.

According to the report, this will be the second consecutive year that SSA records a lower rate of growth than the previous year.

Abebe Selassie, Director, IMF’s African Department, while speaking at the media briefing on the SSA Regional Economic Outlook, said growth across the region varied from country to country.

Selassie said some countries, particularly those in the East African Community, or non-oil resource-intensive countries, were expected to fare better.

” However, some major economies bring down the average SSA growth rate, like South Africa where growth is projected to decelerate sharply to only 0.1 per cent in 2023.”

He said the report showed that public debt and inflation were at levels not seen in decades, with double-digit inflation present in half of the countries.

Selassie said this had eroded household purchasing power and struck at the most vulnerable.

“The rapid tightening of global monetary policy has raised borrowing costs for SSA
countries both on domestic and international markets.

“All Sub-Saharan African frontier markets have been cut off from market access since spring 2022.”

He said the US dollar effective exchange rate reached a 20-year high last year, increasing the burden of dollar-denominated debt service payments.

Selassie said interest payments as a share of revenue had doubled for the average SSA country over the past decade.

“With shrinking aid budgets and reduced inflows from partners, this is leading to a big funding squeeze for the region. ”

He said people in SSA were feeling the effects of a funding crisis.

Selassie said since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost of living was more expensive, borrowing costs had increased, and access to cheaper funding was dwindling.

“This is coupled with a long-term decline in aid and a more recent fall in investment from partners.

“This means that there is less money to be spent on vital services like health, education, and infrastructure.

“If measures are not taken, this funding squeeze will hamper Sub-Saharan’s
efforts to build a skilled and educated population and to be the driving force of the global economy in years to come.”

He said the IMF was playing its part and continued to stand ready to support its members.

Selassie said between 2020 and 2022, the IMF provided more than 50 billion dollars through programmes, emergency financing, and Special Drawing Rights allocation.

“In just two years, the IMF provided more than twice the amount disbursed in any 10-year period since the 1990s.

“As of last month, we had lending arrangements with 21 countries, with more programme requests under consideration.”

Selassie said SSA was far from powerless, and to address macroeconomic imbalances, four policies could help navigate the current turmoil.

“First, it is important to consolidate public finances and strengthen public financial
management amid difficult funding conditions.

“Second is containing inflation. Monetary policy should be steered cautiously until inflation is firmly on a downward trajectory and projected to return to the central bank’s target range.

“Third is allowing the exchange rate to adjust, while mitigating the adverse effects on the economy, including the rise in inflation and debt due to currency depreciations.

” Finally, ensuring that important efforts to tackle climate change do not crowd out basic
needs, like health and education.”

He said climate finance provided by the international community must come on top of current aid flows.

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AONDOAKAA’S LAWYERS URGE COURT TO DISMISS SUIT CHALLENGING HIS GOVERNORSHIP CANDIDACY

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…As Court Reserves Judgment for November 16

The legal team representing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Benue State, Chief Michael Kaase Aondoakaa, SAN, has urged the Federal High Court, Abuja, to dismiss a suit challenging his candidacy for the 2027 governorship election for lack of competence.

Led by Prof. Anthony Ijohor, SAN, the legal team adopted Aondoakaa’s preliminary objection and urged the court to dismiss the suit in limine, arguing that it was not competent to proceed with the case.

The legal team headed by Prof. Ijohor, SAN, comprised other Senior Advocates of Nigeria, including Chiesonu I. Okpoko, SAN, Anthony A. Malik, SAN, and Mohammed Said Diri, SAN. Other members of the team were AT Kohol, Esq, Michael Gusa, Esq, Aleichenu Ogwuche, Esq, AJ Apera, Esq,
Matthew Onoja, Esq, DD Asema, Esq, and HT Ijohor, Esq.

The suit, marked FHC/ABJ/CS/2152/2026, was instituted by David Ejembi, Aondoaver Teryila, Joseph Okpanachi and Benedict Akaazua Orkume against the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the PDP and Aondoakaa.

At the proceedings, counsel to the PDP, CT Mue, Esq, also adopted the party’s preliminary objection and urged the court to strike out the suit for lack of competence.

Counsel to the plaintiffs, Feng Pwajok, Esq, adopted the plaintiffs’ counter-addresses and written address in response to the preliminary objections. Prof. Ijohor subsequently adopted Aondoakaa’s further affidavit and reply on points of law, while Mue adopted the PDP’s reply on points of law.

On the substantive suit, counsel to the plaintiffs adopted their originating processes, while counsel representing the defendants adopted their respective processes. The plaintiffs’ counsel thereafter adopted further affidavits and replies on points of law filed in response to the submissions of the PDP and Aondoakaa.

Following the arguments, the court adjourned the matter to November 16, 2026, for judgment.

Aondoakaa, a former Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, is the PDP’s duly nominated governorship candidate for the 2027 Benue State election.

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“WIKE CANNOT CHOOSE A GOVERNOR FOR US!” — Group Rejects Alleged Rainbow Coalition Plot in Benue

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The Benue Alliance for Good Governance and Accountability (BAGA) alleges secret political negotiations involving Wike, Akume and Ortom; insists Governor Alia should be allowed to complete two terms if re-elected.

BAGA has raised concerns over an alleged political arrangement involving prominent political figures, warning against any attempt to influence the outcome of the 2027 Benue State governorship election without the consent of voters.

In a statement signed by its President, Chief John Terfa, the group alleged that the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, was involved in discussions with the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, and former Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom over a proposed political alliance reportedly known as the “Rainbow Coalition”.

BAGA further alleged that Wike was seeking political control over five states under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as part of the proposed arrangement to deliver President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027, with Benue reportedly among the states being considered to hand over to Wike through the Rainbow Coalition.

The group also claimed that the alleged discussions were aimed at securing the emergence of former Attorney General of the Federation, Chief Mike Aondoakaa, as a preferred governorship candidate in Benue under the proposed coalition, despite Aondoakaa being banned from holding any political office for life by Supreme Court, due to unprecedented corruption and abuse of office when he was the Attorney General.

BAGA questioned why political actors from outside Benue should have a decisive influence over who governs the state, arguing that the choice of governor must remain with the electorate.

“Benue is not a political commodity to be traded behind closed doors in Abuja. The people of the state must have the final say on who governs them and the direction their state takes,” the group said.

The organisation alleged that Wike had held a series of meetings with Akume and Ortom in recent weeks to discuss the reported arrangement.

It further claimed that tensions arose during one of the alleged meetings at Akume’s residence in Abuja recently, where Wike was said to have questioned why Akume had allowed Governor Hyacinth Alia to become so politically powerful.

It was alleged that Wike demanded that Akume should make sure Governor Alia is not re-elected or declared winner in 2027 whether he wins or not and boast of having the judiciary under his control.

BAGA rejected what it described as an attempt to determine Benue’s political leadership through negotiations among powerful individuals, insisting that Governor Hyacinth Alia should be allowed to complete his constitutionally permitted tenure, if re-elected in 2027.

The group said it believed Alia’s administration was performing well in governance and development, adding that political alliances should not be used to undermine the democratic choices of the electorate.

It also criticised the record of Ortom’s administration and expressed concern about what it described as divisions within Benue’s political space arising from the influence of powerful political interests within and outside the state.

BAGA argued that any coalition seeking to influence the 2027 election should be based on transparent principles, competence, accountability and the interests of the people, rather than personal ambition or political bargaining in Abuja.

The group also challenged political actors seeking the support of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to pursue their ambitions without attaching conditions that could compromise the democratic choices of the voters.

“Benue people are politically conscious. They will not surrender their future to a coalition of political interests formed without their consent,” the statement said.

The organisation called on voters, civil society groups and political stakeholders to remain vigilant and defend the state’s democratic rights ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Whatever colour it is given; Rainbow, PDP or otherwise, the people will reject any arrangement that threatens their collective interests and development,” BAGA said.

“Benue is not Rivers and we will not allow Wike from Rivers State to choose a governor for us in Benue State,” the group added.

According to BAGA, the central issue is whether political negotiations in Abuja will respect the right of Benue voters to determine their own leadership.

The group maintains that the state’s governorship should not be decided through private agreements among political power brokers, but through a democratic process in which the people have the final say.

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2027: Group Defends INEC, Urges Evidence-Based Scrutiny of Staff Redeployments

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The Coalition of Civil Society Organisations Against Corruption (COCSOAC) and 33 partner civil society organisations have expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), urging Nigerians to treat recent reports concerning the commission with caution and rely only on verified facts.

The coalition, in a statement signed and issued in Abuja on Tuesday by its President, Bola Ademola, and National Secretary, Comrade Abdulfatah Aliyu, the group said while INEC must be held accountable where necessary, criticisms of the electoral body should be based on credible evidence, due process and an opportunity for affected parties to respond.

COCSOAC was reacting to an online publication alleging questionable staff redeployments within INEC, including the reported reassignment of a Northern director and the deployment of South-West officials to key departments.

The coalition said it had not independently verified the alleged redeployments or the motives behind them, warning that claims of political interference or ethnic favouritism should therefore not be treated as established facts.

“Assuming without conceding that the redeployments occurred as reported, staff reassignment is a recognised administrative practice that may serve legitimate purposes, including operational efficiency, professional development and improved management,” the group said.

It maintained that the geographical origin or family associations of an INEC official could not, on their own, establish bias or an intention to manipulate elections.

According to the coalition, the more important questions should be whether the decisions complied with applicable rules, received proper authorisation and were based on legitimate administrative considerations.

COCSOAC consequently urged INEC to clarify the circumstances surrounding the reported redeployments where necessary, while appealing to the media and civil society organisations to avoid drawing premature conclusions from unverified reports.

The group also congratulated INEC Secretary, Dr Rose Oriaran Anthony, on her turbaning, describing institutional experience, diligence and administrative continuity as important factors in the management of elections.

It appealed to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to consider Oriaran Anthony for reappointment as INEC Secretary when her tenure expires, subject to applicable laws and established appointment procedures.

COCSOAC said its appeal was not a demand for an appointment outside the law but was based on the need to preserve institutional knowledge and strengthen coordination ahead of the 2027 general elections.

“Where an experienced incumbent has demonstrated the requisite commitment and competence, continuity may help preserve institutional knowledge, strengthen coordination and support preparations for peaceful, credible and well-organised elections,” the coalition said.

It, however, stressed that any decision on the matter must be guided by legality, INEC’s independence and the integrity of the electoral process.

The coalition called on political actors, civil society organisations, the media and other stakeholders to protect public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral institutions through evidence-based engagement, transparency and respect for due process.

It said its position was not that INEC should be shielded from scrutiny, but that allegations against the commission must be verified and affected institutions given a fair opportunity to respond.

“As the nation approaches another critical electoral cycle, accountability, institutional stability and the rule of law must remain central to the collective pursuit of credible elections,” COCSOAC said.

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