… Insecurity, Religion, Assassinations and Drug Wars As Factors That May Undermine Exercise

…We Shall Overcome, We Are On Top Of Situation-Buhari, INEC

By: Our Correspondents

Nigeria may not be new to political tensions having come out stronger from past experiences. Those who witnessed the post June 12, 1993 election crisis can attest to the experiences of that time. Immediate past experiences may have also thickened the skins of her citizens to crisis; early warning signals however show that the current situation presents a rather grim spectacle. This is occasioned by the fact that, so many crisis seem to be happening simultaneously.

With the submission of names of candidates by political parties to contest various positions in the 2023 general elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC have hopes of conducting the country’s freest and fairest elections ever: if its spokesman, Festus Okoye’s pledge is anything to rely upon.

Okoye, in several press interviews allayed the fears of Nigerians with a promise that, the 2023 elections is on course and everything shall be well. He told Arise News Television that, INEC is collaborating with all security agencies, and most of the security concerns shall be addressed before the due dates for the elections.

Political parties on their parts are drawing out plans on how to win the elections, as they position their candidates and draw manifestoes, against what has been described as Nigeria’s litmus test for the survival of democracy and indeed as a nation.

This is even as the country’s leadership battles with multi-faceted crisis, ranging from Boko Haram insurgency in the North East, banditry and Kidnapping in most states of the North West, IPOB agitations in the South East, threats of succession by the Yoruba Nation and widespread assassinations in virtually every part of Nigeria.

Nigerians; irrespective of where they stay, live in perpetual fear and uncertainty in the face of these developments: especially emergent strong indications that the country may not be safe for the conduct of the 2023, unless general security concerns in the country are quickly and decisively addressed.

Our correspondents who have been monitoring the mood of the nation report that, the situation seems to further be degenerating, with reports of various criminal activities, happening simultaneously from across the nation, while the Government looks on helplessly: apparently overwhelmed.

The President and Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces, Muhammadu Buhari has given repeated assurances that the situation will be brought under control and Nigeria will be better placed than before, even as he promised to allow for the conduct of safe, free and fair elections in 2023.

Nigerians however do not seem impressed with the President’s promises, especially when they look back at the promises he made for Nigerians before his first election as President in 2015. Many have used it to mock him, just as political opponents have been using some of the perceived failed promises to de-market the All Progressives Congress, APC, against the coming elections.

President Muhammadu Buhari has changed the Service Chiefs, in apparent response to public cries for an overhaul; with seemingly the same result and has summoned countless security meetings, out of which no single solution has been found, even as criminal elements appear more emboldened in carrying out their nefarious activities.

It is against this grim national situation that, some people have called on President Muhammadu Buhari to either seek for further amendment to the constitution to give him third term in office, even as others are clamoring for an interim Government, to be appointed by the President. The President has since dismissed such fears, but the attendant tension and fears persist, which further create doubts about the elections.

States worst hit by the insecurity include, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau,Taraba, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Imo, Enugu, Anambra, Kogi, Kwara and to some extent, Bauchi, Borno, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Ondo and Rivers states. In each of these states, conduct of elections are very dicey, and require heavy security deployments, with attendant consequences of voter apathy, as citizens live in fear.

With no apparent solution in sight to these problems, analyst predict that the 2023 elections may be an uphill task to conduct across the aforementioned states, where free movement of citizens are heavily curtailed by the activities of criminals.

Social and commercial activities in areas where bandits operate have been at the lowest ebb, just as the likely movements for the elections may not be possible with the glaring dangers.

In some of these states, movement of election officials and voters alike face serious threats from the activities of bandits and kidnappers, who have vowed to make life difficult for citizens generally.

The narrative amongst Nigerians, is such that, certain individuals or group: both in and outside Government make brisk gains out of the situation, and are ostensibly the brains behind crisis.

Reports indicate that, while those in Government collect billions as funds to prosecute the war against terrorism and crime generally, others outside the government collect returns from the criminals.

Nigerians tend to believe that security agents on the fields have either been compromised or are just complacent with the situation, since they are paid money for doing very little.

Many Nigerians on the other hand believe that the Armed Forces have been at their best, but seem overwhelmed for lack of equipment and appropriate arms to confront the criminals.

International and local observers have given a pass mark to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, over recent elections and by-elections conducted in some states, for the improvements in the quality of the elections, but such assessments fail to factor in the performance of the security agencies.

Even in the face of the heavily militarized and police presence, the general atmosphere outside the immediate areas where the elections were conducted remain fragile.

Apparently ignoring the experiences of other countries that witnessed religious wars, and the 2015 experiences, Churches and Mosques have been reduced to campaign arenas, with religious leaders preparing the minds of their followers for the elections along religious sentiments.

Media debates seem to give prominence to religious issues, thus further inflaming passions and preparing grounds for a religious war. The situation indicates that, religion may play significant role, as adherents of two main faiths, Christianity and Islam threaten fire and brimstone.

Analysts believe that, in seeming alliance with international operators, the underworld of drug kingpins in Nigeria may be perfecting plans to cash in on the situation and sponsor stooges into elective positions, so as to exert hold on Government.

This fact emerged in the face of the fierce war being executed by the Government against hard drugs.

Our correspondent in Lagos reports that, the drug cartel in the country are not comfortable with the leadership of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, NDLEA, under General Mohammed Buba Marwa, which has intensified fights against their business, hence the need to penetrate Government and halt further war against them.

Recent reports depict the NDLEA as having arrested prominent drug warlords, who have allies in Government, a move that has threatened the drug market. With criminals as the main users of the drugs, penetrating Government and sustaining the crisis remain two sure ways that could ensure their continued business