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OPINION
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NIGERIA’S TROUBLING COLLECTIVE MENTALITY FAILURES
By: A G Abubakar
In the 1970s, it was fashionable to mount a spirited defence of sub-Saharan societies against any reference to governance failure, often dismissing such critiques as racist. Later, imperialism was added to the interpretive lens. Both explanations were seen as Western ploys to denigrate Africa, plunder its resources, and subjugate its people—a case of calling a dog a bad name in order to hang it. Half a century later, however, a rethink is unavoidable. While elements of those perceptions remain valid, African societies themselves have increasingly proven complicit in their developmental predicaments.
Nigerians, inclusive, appear to suffer either from inherent vulnerabilities of mentality or from historical experiences that have left indelible marks on the collective psyche. Both victim and perpetrator are therefore culpable. It is what the Hausa proverb captures succinctly: idan ɓera na da sata, daddawa ma na da wari—if the rat is accused of stealing, the locust-bean seasoning itself also emits a tempting smell.
The most damaging form of this complicity is a mentality that struggles to identify challenges, accept ownership, and act decisively. It is a mindset unable to internalise the truth that if you do not act for yourself, no one else will—not for you as an individual, not for you as a race, and not for you as a nation. The world owes no one relevance beyond statistics; only value confers identity.
Information and knowledge, it is often said, constitute that value and power. Whether secular or theological, societies that acquire and apply either tend to improve their well-being. They deploy them to overcome deprivation, ignorance, disease, and premature mortality. According to the UN, over the past half-century the world has reduced poverty, increased life expectancy, lowered illiteracy, and curbed major global conflicts.
Global extreme poverty—defined as living on $2.15 per day—fell from over 40 percent in 1986 to less than 10 percent by 2019. Global mortality rates have dropped by about 60 percent since 1950, while life expectancy rose by roughly 20 years by 2023. Adult literacy increased from 67 percent in 1976 to 86.36 percent in 2023. Major wars of a global nature have also declined since the Second World War in 1945; battle-related deaths, way back in the 90s has dropped to a third of the 1970s.
In Nigeria, these global gains remain largely illusory. Only last year, the country was described by the World Bank and IMF as the poverty capital of the world. Insurgency, terrorism, banditry, killer herdsmen, secessionist militias, and communal violence have turned life into a disposable commodity. Carnage has become routine, depressing life expectancy. The USA, has even accused Nigeria for doing little to stem the killings. With over 20 million children out of school, Nigeria’s literacy rate lags far behind the global average. Sadly, these grim indicators apply to much of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) —even in the 21st century.
Rather than interrogate the form, content, and application of the knowledge that they consume, these societies have embraced an evasive escape—attributing their failures to the Almighty. Nigerians, in particular, have adopted a cloaked mindset that renders them oblivious to their relative and worsening backwardness. Innovation, manufacturing, maintenance culture, and orderly systems are subconsciously assigned to “other people.”
This debility is often explained through historical grievances—slavery, colonialism, neocolonialism, and even Marx and Engel’s “historical dialectical materialism” —while ignoring the rigidity of mentality. A mindset that unites intellectuals and the uninformed alike under a banner of perpetual victimhood, forgetting that other societies endured comparable traumas and yet transcended them.
China suffered imperial domination by the Mongols between the 14th and 18th centuries or even before; Korea endured Japanese imperialism. Much of the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia were victims of both domestic and international slavery before being colonised by European powers. Britain, Spain, Portugal, the Dutch, France, etc were in the forefront of the historically ignoble practices. The Jews experienced centuries of bondage in Egypt. Most have moved on since.
Some have voyaged into space and even gunning for the moon, while Nigerians—and much of sub-Saharan Africa—cannot safely access farms or village markets. The prospects of improvement grow dimmer as mindsets remain trapped in the search for scapegoats and divine intervention, instead of human agency.
In Nigeria, individuals routinely produce children beyond their capacity to care for, then lament behavioural problems and blame divine destiny. Evasion has become a lifestyle. A person beats traffic lights, gets knocked down, survives—and attributes it to divine ordination. Even death resulting from reckless behaviour is explained away as the will of God. Self-accountability is conspicuously absent. Waste is dumped into drains, waterways are blocked, floods and diseases follow—and prayers are offered for prevention. Government is blamed, even as perpetrators present themselves as victims. The irony is staggering.
Communities ignore early warning signs of insecurity until violence consumes them. Only then do leaders search for culprits and call for prayers. Denial precedes disaster; imagination flourishes afterward. Farmers fell trees indiscriminately, refuse sustainable practices, yet complain of poor yields and soil exhaustion—again blaming fate. Even, personal choices are made on impulse, devoid of vision or sustainable interests. The people, thus keep recycling politicians they love to curse for non performance, usually after appeals to premordial sentiments and gifting palliatives that could last few days. Thereafter, deprivations take over; as the politicians kept switching political camps in pursuit of material gains since democracy in Nigeria lacks ideological anchor.
The story is not different with the elite class. They can attend the best schools, excel academically, travel the world and get enlightened, speak queen’s English (blow big big grammar), but in the end hardly rise above the ordinary. The mindsets never change. Something akin to a well trained circus tiger, that remains what it is after a beautiful performance; a four-legged creature
The educated youth are not left of the mentality confusion too. Those searching for opportunities – jobs, businesses, spouses etc – cannot even link their constraints to such obvious factors as economic downturn and the need for a pragmatic way out. Instead, they resort to the metaphysical, by moving from one prayer house/cleric to another, making sacrifices and procuring anointing oil, white handkerchief and the likes for an elusive breakthrough .
Worse still, public functionaries in the sexagenerian bracket (60+) who steal public wealth to become emergency billionaires, knowing fully well that they have less than two decades of “active” life. Statistics has also shown that stollen wealth, unlike the institutional one, hardly thrives after well after the grandmaster thief. Yet Nigerians are helplessly trapped in this infamy.
Government mirrors this mentality, too. Infrastructure is built without maintenance culture. Industrialisation is preached while power generation is neglected. Saboteurs are blamed for predictable failures. When crises escalate, defence budgets balloon. Yet corruption drains resources, resulting in poor equipment, soldiers’ welfare and motivation; allowing violence to mutate and expand.
Existential threats then trigger national prayers. Mosques and churches mobilise. Phantom enemies are invented. The Almighty is summoned to fix self-inflicted chaos. Is this not strange?
Historical experiences matter, but something deeper is at work. Why this resistance to responsibility? Why the insistence that God should clean up messes deliberately created by humans endowed with reason? Why should the people resign themselves to being consumers of other people’s industrial outputs without questioning why they couldn’t do the same thing? Why feel mentally comfortable with it?
Nigeria and indeed the SSA must embark on sincere self-introspection. If education has failed, it must be reformed. If religion has been misapplied, lessons must be drawn from societies where faith, and culture coexists with progress.
The education system and intellectual class must reassess learning content. If mental colonisation persists, it must be dismantled, for a new and progressive mindsets to evolve. It is tragic for an entire people to reconcile themselves to permanent marginality. Certainly, not after dark peoples’ dark experiences in history right from the times of Noah, Egyptian Pharoahs, the slavery days, the colonial and neocolonial periods and down to the balkanisation of the continent.
Africa was partitioned at the Berlin Conference of 1884–85 and subjected to colonialism, followed by neocolonialism. Globalisation, the internet, and now artificial intelligence have completed a subtler chain of domination. The psychological impact has been profound—and escaping it may take generations. But this has to happen.
At some point, history stops sympathising and starts judging. No society can permanently outsource responsibility to slavery, colonialism, fate, or God without paying the price of irrelevance. Nations rise not because they pray harder, complain louder, or remember their wounds longer, but because they confront themselves honestly and act ruthlessly on that truth.
There comes a moment when a people’s suffering ceases to be tragic and becomes willful. God, having endowed humans with intellect, does not suspend causality for societies that locked their mindsets away. Nations that reject accountability do not collapse by conspiracy; they decay by choice. Nigeria’s crisis is therefore not metaphysical but moral—a rebellion against the discipline of cause and effect, and being obvious of it; consciously or otherwise.
Until this society accepts that progress is not a prayer point but a consequence of deliberate action, that faith without responsibility is superstition, and that victimhood is the most expensive ideology a nation can adopt, the future will remain a closed door—locked not by enemies, but from within. If Nigerian and indeed SSA societies have unique problems, which all nations have, they should accept it; work on it, and join the world in improving humanity.
If this obvious expectation sounds untenable then may be it is time to interrogate certain concepts that could help in understanding the people’s mindsets and how they may be influenced and shaped. Science has arguably tried to employ theories of epigenetics, niche construction, and cultural-historical model to shed light on the disposition of a people’s mindset. It would seem that while epigenetic factors shape predispositions of the mind, niche construction produces an environmental and institutional culture that discourages risk-taking and inquisitive inquiry, the two operating in a mutually reinforcing relationship.
Epigenetics, according to contemporary biological and behavioural science, refers to heritable changes in gene expression that do not alter DNA sequences but are influenced by sustained environmental pressures such as stress, deprivation, or social instability. Niche construction theory holds that humans actively modify their social and ecological environments, and these modified environments in turn reshape behavioural norms, incentives, and constraints across generations. The cultural-cognitive model further explains how shared beliefs, values, and learned heuristics become internalised as “common sense,” guiding perception, reasoning, and acceptable behaviour.
Taken together, these forces profoundly shape knowledge organisation, narrowing epistemic horizons, and entrenching cognitive biases that privilege conformity, risk-avoidance, and inherited assumptions over critical inquiry and innovation. Maybe it is time for a deeper introspection.
A.G.Abubakar agbarewa@gmail.com
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Scholars Hail Late Sheik Kamalu-deen’s Legacies iN Education, Leadership
Stephen Olufemi Oni, Ilorin
Nigeria, and the world at large, are in dire need of exemplary leaders like the late Founder of the Ansarul Islam Society of Nigeria, Sheik Muhammad Kamalu-deen al- Adabbiy.
This was the submission of various scholars at a media briefing in ilorin, the Kwara State capital, to usher in the Society’s week-long activities to commemorate the 100 years of the establishment of the Az-Zumratul Adabiyatul Kamaliyyah School of Arabic and Islamic Studies, in Okekere, Ilorin.
The school was fouded by the late Sheik Kamalu-deen in 1942.
Born in 1905, the late Sheik Kamalu-deen was one of Nigeria’s foremost Islamic scholars and educational piooneers who transformed deep Islamic religoius learning into education and also advocated the acquisition of western education .
He also served as a Councillor and Member of the Ilorin Native Authority Transition Committee between 1958 and 1961and was appointed as the first grand mufti of Ilorin by the Emir of Ilorin.
The late Kamalu-deen al- Adabbiy died in 2005 at the aged of 100 years, leaving behind impactful legacies in the propagation of Islamic religion, scholarship, education and leadership.
Addressing journalists at the ancient hall of the Az-Zumratul Adabiyatul Kamaliyyah School of Arabic and Islamic Studies in Okekere, Ilorin, the spokesperson, Prof Kamil Kamaldeen, said the late sheikh was “non discriminatory” in all his policies, a virtue he said was lacking in most leaders today.
“We are here to celebrate the legacies of the late Sheikh Muhammad Kamalu-deen al-Adabbiy not to tell his history, at a time when the world continues to need what he stood for. We are in a world today that we are looking for leaders who will serve without puting themselves first, no matter where we come from,” he said
The Registrar was flanked by the Vice Chancellor of the Muhammad Kamalu-deen University, Prof AbdulRasheed Jimoh, General Overseer of the Az-Zumratul school, Sheik Mustapha Kamalu-deen al- Adabby, Grand Khadi of the Kwara State Sharia Court of Appeal, Justice Abdulateef Kamaldeen, National Missioner of Ansarul Islam Society of Nigeria, Sheik Abdulmumini Ayara, retired Grand Khadi of the Kwara state Sharia Court of Appeal, Justice Idris Haroon and a foremost islamic Scholar, Sheik Sharafadeen Ajara .
Others included the President of Az-Zumratul alumni association, Ustaz Abdullahi Oni-Tolotolo, and the Principal of the School.
They noted that the late Sheikh Kamalu-deen had through his preachings, established educational structures and selfless leadership qualities, produced worthy ambassadors in all spheres of disciplines, urging leaders at all levels to invest heavily in education .
“No society loses from investing in education, it can only gain, no society loses when you build skills, you can only gain,” they added.
The Scholars also charged leaders to take a cue from the late Sheikh Kamalu-deen whom they said was always willing to collaborate with scholars and leaders of like minds in a bid to bring advancement and progress to his community, citing his link with Al-Ahhar University, Cairo, as beneficial in advancement of higher Islamic studies in Ilorin.
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The changing face of Nasarawa at 30
BY VICTORIA NGOZI IKEANO
victoriangozii@gmail.com 08033077519
Some 26 years after Nigeria’s Independence, a state named Nasarawa in the old northern region now in north central zone of Nigeria was established by then Head of state, General Sani Abacha. Nasarawa thus, shares same birth day as Nigeria, October 1. While Nigeria at 66 is a full, grown-up adult that is heading towards being an elder, Nasarawa state is now a young adult, well past adolescent age. The state itself is maturing gradually. Recall that time was when Lafia its state capital used to be referred to as a ‘one street capital’, defined by the very long stretch of Jos/Makurdi road. Before the state came into being, Lafia, was a sleepy city renowned more as a transit stop for long distance travelers and as a food market (melon, rice, yam, etc.) for big-time traders from especially the eastern part of our country. Then on October 1, 1996 it suddenly found itself bestowed with the status of a state capital; the responsibility seemingly heavy for it’s apparently naïve shoulders then. Findings showed that Akwanga which was considered more cosmopolitan at the time, was to be named the state capital but that General Sani Abacha brought his primordial links to bear in selecting Lafia for the prized crown. Whatever it is, I think the choice of Lafia is not misplaced because there is more value-added when a virgin or semi virgin land is developed than one that is already on the development highway.
Nasarawa state shares boundary with the Federal capital territory (FCT), Plateau, Benue, Kogi and Taraba states. It was carved out of Plateau state. Before then it was part of Benue-Plateau state. It was one of the six states established by late General San Abacha from Nigeria’s six zones on that fateful day of October 1 ,1996 while delivering his 36th Independence Anniversary speech. Others are, Ekiti (South West), Ebonyi (South East), Bayelsa (South South), Gombe (North East) and Zamfara (North West). Wing Commander Abdullahi Ibrahim superintended over the new state in its early years. On May29, 1999 Nasarawa got its first democratically elected governor in person of Alhaji Abdullahi Adamu, Turakin Keffi. The sole administrator’s main task was setting up administrative machinery for the new state. Notable is his construction of the Government House on Shendam road. This was later completed by then Governor Adamu enabling him to depart the two bedrooms flat at the presidential lodge that had served as his office. Over the years Nasarawa’s Government House which serves as both residence and office of the governor has undergone some touches and additions by the various administrations on its expansive land. It now accommodates a 1000-capacity banquet hall named after its second civilian governor, late Aliyu Akwe Doma. There is also now a Press Centre mainly for correspondents covering Government House activities, guest rooms, etc.
Each of the succeeding governments after the military administrator did the best as they could, adding their own unique building blocks to the now 30 year-old edifice called Nasarawa. Abdullahi Adamu laid the foundation stone. His efforts are most noticeable in construction of rural roads and education sector. Some 30 years ago, Nasarawa state had no institution of higher learning save the College of Education, Akwanga, inherited from old Plateau state. Alhaji Adamu (later Senator) established the Nasarawa state Polytechnic (now Mustapha Agwai Polytechnic) College of Health Technology, School of Nursing and of course, Nasarawa state University. There have been additional tertiary schools since then. Among them, the Federal Polytechnic (to be converted to Federal Institute of Mining Technology), Federal University, Lafia (FULAFIA). Federal University Teaching Hospital. Unlike all other governors that completed two terms, late Alhaji Aliyu Akwe Doma who took over from Adamu spent only one term. Nevertheless, he made a mark with especially his Badakoshi programme in which Nasarawa state was exporting yams to foreign lands, notably United Kingdom, thereby boosting the state’s agricultural sector.
Enter Governor Tanko Al-makura (later Senator) after Doma’s time. Alhaji Al-makura opened up the state’s capital with infrastructure, especially roads, giving Lafia a semblance of a capital city. The modernization of Lafia started with him. Current governor, Engineer Abdullahi Sule, a former managing director of Dangote Sugar company is taking Nasarawa state to the next level which is industrialization. In this connection he has attracted some industries to Nasarawa state, particularly in areas where the state has comparative advantage, namely agriculture. As a state that is endowed also with solid minerals (from where it derives the name, ‘Home of Solid Minerals’) Governor Sule is now turning attention to this sector. His legacy project here is the lithium factory built by investor. It is said to be the biggest in Africa and is yielding the government humongous amount of money in revenue. Indeed solid minerals a.k.a. rare minerals, is the future ‘black gold’ that would replace oil which is now gradually losing its importance as nations seek for cleaner energy. Lithium is used for the new technology of the 21st century as for example, chips of smart phones that are constantly evolving. Thus, states that are rich in various mineral deposits shall rank amongst the richest in future. Quite a number of states in northern Nigeria are so blessed. But the challenge is getting capable investors that would exploit these rare minerals for commercialization. And Governor Sule has set a precedent in this direction with establishment of the first and biggest lithium factory in Africa. Nasarawa’s landscape is changing from a mainly civil service state to one that is becoming an industrial hub with accompanying hustle and bustle of a thriving state.
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OPINIONThe Disturbing Facts Behind the Economy’s Beautiful Statistics and the Path Forward.
By: A G Abubakar
“Subsidy is gone!” So thundered Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu at Eagle Square immediately after being sworn in as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on 29th May 2023. The terse declaration was intended to bring an end to one of the nation’s major cesspools of corruption. Months later came the unification of the various windows of foreign-exchange administration, where impunity, arbitrage and political patronage had held sway for years. That unification, in practical terms, meant the devaluation of the naira. About a year later, a new tax regime was introduced, ostensibly to expand the government’s fiscal space and strengthen its revenue base.
Taken individually and in principle, the three reforms are difficult to fault. They address deep structural distortions that have weakened Nigeria’s economy for decades and created enormous opportunities for rent-seeking, arbitrage and systemic corruption. But economic reforms, however necessary, are not self-executing miracles. Even sound reforms can produce severe and unintended consequences, particularly hyperinflation, joblessness and mass disillusionment, when they are poorly sequenced, inadequately cushioned or implemented without sufficient regard for the productive capacity and welfare of the population.
A reform process is like agriculture. Practitioners know that it is not enough to plant early-maturing, high-yielding seeds and expect a bumper harvest. The whole exercise has to be preceded by land preparation, the acquisition of the right fertiliser and chemicals, and a modicum of good luck—weather and rainfall—from Mother Nature. Otherwise, a potentially high-yielding seed planted in an unprepared field can still produce a disappointing harvest. The same principle applies to economic reform.
Removing subsidies, unifying the foreign-exchange market and expanding the tax base may correct serious distortions, but they do not, by themselves, create food, jobs, productive industries, affordable energy, secure livelihoods or purchasing power. Those outcomes require the productive economy to be strengthened alongside the reforms. Otherwise, the immediate burden of adjustment, such as galloping inflation, can become much heavier than the economy’s capacity to absorb it. Containing inflation and the effects of devaluation in a low-productivity economic environment is one of the hardest policy-management challenges in an economy.
Inflation, in an economy already suffering from weak productive capacity, does not merely raise prices. It erodes purchasing power, destroys savings, increases the cost of survival and pushes millions of people closer to the economic precipice. The problem becomes even more severe when rising prices are accompanied by declining production, high energy costs, currency depreciation and weak household incomes.
The situation is then compounded when the authorities, in an attempt to contain inflation, tighten the money supply through higher interest rates. While such measures may be intended to moderate demand and stabilise prices, their immediate effect is to increase the cost of borrowing, making investment more expensive and, in some cases, virtually prohibitive. Businesses that would otherwise expand production are forced to scale back, postpone investment or close altogether. Productivity consequently suffers, employment opportunities shrink, and the economy becomes even less capable of producing the goods and services its growing population requires.
The usual temptation is to fill domestic production gaps through massive imports. But this, too, places even greater pressure on scarce foreign exchange while simultaneously making local production less competitive and less attractive. The vicious cycle is thereby reinforced: currency depreciation raises the cost of imported inputs and finished goods; high interest rates suppress investment; weak domestic production increases import dependence; import dependence intensifies demand for scarce foreign exchange; and the resulting pressure on the currency pushes prices even higher.
The economy consequently becomes trapped in a cycle in which the very measures intended to restore stability can, in the absence of corresponding increases in production, deepen the pressures facing households and businesses. When these forces are allowed to play out without restoring the critical balance, citizens’ well-being takes the greatest hit: food, transport, housing, healthcare and education become increasingly difficult to afford.
This calls for an elaborate blueprint for safety nets, which is literally the first law of reform. Metaphorically, tents are mounted before the rain starts falling. And the reasons are obvious: reforms usually throw up unintended consequences faster than the antidotes to contain them. On account of time lags, economies normally take time to absorb the shocks created by reforms.
The government has not acknowledged this reality sufficiently. Instead, it has developed a penchant for rolling out statistics to rebut any opinion to the contrary. Functionaries have been too eager to cite improved foreign reserves, rising GDP growth, falling food inflation, increased FAAC allocations to states and even access to NELFUND. And lately, the improved figure for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the country. The truth is that these achievements have not been felt by ordinary citizens. And for some obvious reasons.
The increase in foreign reserves above $54 billion, the highest since 2008, has not been achieved through improved domestic productivity or exports. It has been driven largely by external borrowing and fortuitous developments in the oil market. Records from the DMO indicate that Nigeria’s external debt rose from $45.98 billion to $51.90 billion in 2026, a net increase of $5.92 billion. The war in Iran, too, has pushed oil prices above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel to around $100. The positive difference represents a “windfall” that has improved Nigeria’s external reserves without a corresponding rise in non-oil production. It is like a lottery. Economies are never sustainably run on lotteries.
The GDP growth at 4.43% is equally impressive, but it could just be “paper growth” because it has not translated into a general improvement in citizens’ well-being. It is common to have “jobless growth”—a phenomenon in which growth is concentrated in high-tech sectors or services rather than in industrial production, manufacturing or agriculture. These productive sectors are the major drivers of sustainable economic growth. They provide job opportunities for millions, create wealth and boost exports. This has not been the case with Nigeria’s GDP growth.
Falling food inflation is a welcome development at any time. It becomes a challenge when it is driven by imports. It is on record (CBN, NBS) that between 2024 and 2025, the government imported N6.58 trillion and N6.65 trillion, respectively, worth of food items, particularly grains. While the importation has forced prices down, it has inadvertently discouraged local production, the level of which was already down because of insecurity in most farming communities. This has triggered a fear of hunger, which Mr President had cause to say has been with us since before he was born.
The NELFUND is a good initiative in unqualified terms. The figure being bandied about—that more than a million students have benefited from the scheme—is impressive. But the finer details may indicate a different story. For communities dealing with low school enrolment, such as in the North, where about 16 million are out of school, or poor communities having to deal with poor educational performance, the immediate challenge may not be student loans. It is about putting education on the right footing. NELFUND, for now, could largely benefit the privileged who ordinarily could afford tuition.
Then comes the issue of enhanced FAAC allocations to the states, which may have accrued from tax reforms, improved oil revenues, savings from subsidy removal and other measures. Great as these initiatives have been in improving the government’s fiscal health, the paradox is that inflation arising from currency devaluation has eaten away almost 70% of the value of what is being allocated.
To put it plainly, the naira has lost around 70% of its value against the dollar. State governments are, therefore, now paying multiple times what they used to pay for the same goods and services before the devaluation. The increased FAAC is like adding water to a soup to serve more guests, and still insisting that the taste has improved too.
As for FDI, Nigeria recorded an improved level in the first quarter of 2026, to the tune of $10.37 billion in capital importation. Unfortunately, more than 95%—over $9.85 billion—was portfolio investment. Records indicate that more than 98% of the said portfolio inflows went into money-market instruments, including Treasury bills and government bonds. While such inflows can provide foreign exchange and temporary liquidity, they are inherently more mobile than direct investment. Nigeria needs more foreign capital, but that which a greater proportion should be stable, and long-term to expand productive capacity, creates jobs and strengthens the real economy.
As things stand, the reforms actually call for further reforms to make their outcomes more impactful. The path forward should start by reviewing some of the prescriptions of the neoliberal Bretton Woods institutions (WB/IMF) that emphasise spreadsheet balance over public well-being. The next necessary actions include repossessing aspects of the energy sector, stepping up the war on corruption, optimising the reinvestment of subsidy savings into job creation, and providing sustainable support for the MSME sector.
The 2012 privatisation of aspects of Nigeria’s electricity sector has not worked well. Apart from its abysmally low transmission of about 5,000 MW for a population of over 230 million, the Nigerian power sector is structurally inefficient, operationally constrained and unnecessarily burdened by a maze of encumbering regulatory and institutional arrangements. The transmitted volume is actually less than that of some single cities, such as Beijing (China), Tokyo (Japan), Delhi (India) and the like.
First, the gap between the estimated 12,000 MW or more generation capacity and the roughly 5,000 MW wheeling volume means that more than half of the available generation capacity is either stranded, constrained or otherwise unavailable to consumers. Second, the TCN’s transmission loss factor (TLF), at 7.96%, exceeds NERC’s regulatory threshold of 7%. Third, and more troubling, is the DISCOs’ Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) loss rate of 37.44%, more than twice the regulatory target of 16.92%.
These have inflicted enormous financial losses and severely diminished economic opportunities, with far-reaching consequences for the productive capacity of the economy and the acceleration of its deindustrialisation.
The institutional architecture itself adds another layer of complexity. The sector involves a cacophony of stakeholders and institutions—including the GenCos, TCN, NISO, DISCOs, NERC, NBET, NEMSA, the ECN, the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and the Federal Ministry of Power (FMP). Their mandates tend to overlap. They should be streamlined to remove bottlenecks.
Energy is an indispensable factor in economic transformation. For instance, in the USA, only 13% of the economy can function without electricity. In general, it is believed that a 1% increase in electricity supply can stimulate between 1.5% and 3% growth in GDP. The government should, therefore, reclaim the distribution segment (DisCos) of the power ecosystem to fast-track national development, as the private-sector-led model has not delivered yet. This is without prejudice to the current Electricity Act, 2023, as amended.
Besides power, greater attention should be paid to agriculture through the provision of subsidies on inputs, chemicals and fertiliser. Agriculture remains a mainstay of the economy, contributing between 20% and 26% to national GDP and employing around 70% of the rural labour force (NBS, 2026). It has been a veritable source of agro-raw materials for both local and foreign industries. Agriculture should be made attractive.
Support for the MSME subsector should be a matter of urgency. It harbours over 40 million units and, according to NBS, constitutes over 90% of the nation’s enterprise stock. These enterprises play a huge role in wealth creation. Poor power supply and limited access to affordable credit have, however, not allowed the sector to thrive as it should.
Another critical priority area that deserves greater support is direct job creation. The concept has been a good complement to macroeconomic reforms the world over. It is an indispensable labour sponge for economies under serious stress, as pronounced by great scholars like Keynes and later modified by Friedman and others. The US government under Roosevelt used it to revive the economy during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Called the New Deal, it aimed to equip jobless youths with skills to undertake various types of economic activities outside government. A similar approach was adopted in the rebuilding of Europe under the Marshall Plan (1948–1951).
Successive governments in Nigeria appreciated this dictum during periods of economic challenges and established agencies such as the NDE, NAPEP, SMEDAN, etc. However, over the years, some of their operations have lost steam when they are needed most. It is believed that, with proper support, the agencies could address the annual rate of 3 million youths discharged by the education system into the labour market, where only 10% are estimated to get formal employment.
The call for rejigging the existing agencies is not to downplay what is on the ground, such as the N75 billion BOI fund, the CBN’s development fund, SMEDAN’s ICSS and GROW Fund, etc., but rather to engender greater impact and reach. This is also without prejudice to existing schemes and/or programmes of NBTE, ITF and others. They should be made to work collaboratively, statutorily, along a national empowerment value chain that links skills development, entrepreneurship, funding and mentoring.
The resources to fund interventions are on the ground. They include redirecting the subsidy savings, a sustained reduction in corruption that currently takes 40% of the nation’s annual budget, and conventional allocations.
In the final analysis, reforms cannot be judged by the comfort of government balance sheets while citizens struggle to put food on their tables. Nigerians do not live on GDP growth, foreign reserves or impressive FAAC figures; they live on wages, jobs, affordable food, electricity, healthcare and purchasing power. The real challenge, therefore, is to move the reforms from the spreadsheets of government into the productive economy and the homes of ordinary Nigerians.
Until that happens, the government may continue to celebrate its numbers, but the people will continue to measure the reforms by the hardship they feel.
A. G. Abubakar
agbarewa@gmail.com
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