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Why Poverty May Keep Rising In The Face of Purported Economic Growth.

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By: A G Abubakar

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its rate of growth are two basic economic tools used in the measurement of the size and performance of an economy. While the former represents the total market value of the economy’s aggregate output, the latter deals with the incremental movement or otherwise, of the said value, over a given period of time. The growth could be real, if inflation is discounted or nominal without the discount. The higher the figures, the healthier the economy, and that’s why governments are too eager to influence them for political reasons. This is despite the fact that the rates could mask some underlying deficiencies.

Various tools are employed to achieve this illusion of economic growth. They include rebasing the economy, bringing down inflation through unorthodox means such as massive food import, and tax reform to mop up economic deadweights. The Nigerian government had so far tinkered with the three. Whatever figure(s) arrived at in such circumstances are accrued from adjustment rather than through a general rise in national productivity. It’s like discovering some money in the pocket. It isn’t an indication of an additional income stream or a rise in earning power.

It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian GDP and growth rate have been assessed. The size of the economy bloated by 40% after being rebased, and the growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 rose to around 4%. Both impressive figures were achieved outside the real productive sectors of the economy, namely agriculture, industry, manufacturing, and physical infrastructure development. The nexus of economy rebasing, taxation, and GDP growth could be a complex one. It’s, however, in order to take a critical look at the central plank in the government’s interventions – the rebasing of the economy and its inherent implications.

In general terms, the acclaimed “expansion” of a re-based economy is more of a political paperwork than a measure of the economy’s performance. It’s a statistical/accounting exercise done to bring hitherto left out parameters/elements for not being crucial into an economic equation. This is in addition to the traditional stock of goods and services. Re-basing is mostly done by governments facing serious economic challenges, but at the same time looking for validation. As an economic tool, it is used sparingly because its fluidity may not portray the economy’s true health.

In the case of Nigeria, the re-basing exercise used 2019 as a base year. According to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (nbs), the initiative jerked the GDP to $243.7 billion (2024), from less than $200 billion the previous year, 2023. The floating/devaluation of the Naira, weakened its value by more than 70%. The move actually depressed the GDP to about $200 billion which may have been a source of discomfort to the government, that was in the heat of settling down. Something got to be done. That something happened to be to rebase the economy!

The rebasing computation brought into play aspects of the informal sector, diaspora remittances, the creative industry, the digital economy, returns from illicit activities, etc, just to beef up the GDP figure. Nothing got changed/transformed in the productive base of the economy. Agriculture continues to struggle. Industry and manufacturing have remained comatose. Stock of physical infrastructure like roads, power, institutions, etc are in deplorable condition.

A rebased GDP and consequent GDP growth in the circumstances remain hollow. Their impacts hardly get translated into improved public wellbeing. The amorphous parameters used, too, are never resilient enough to provide a sustainable thrust for future growth. It remains an economic patch work.

The “encouraging” figures from both rebased GDP and its attendant growth have been described variously as

paradox of accounting surplus but economic loss (net),
jobless growth,
motion without movement,
artificial growth,
growth without inclusion, etc.
Expectedly, re-based GDP growth tends to exist side by side with growing poverty (139 million by World Bank’s latest report), mass disillusionment, and social convulsions, as currently obtained in parts of Nigeria

For a government struggling with economic reform, a re-based GDP figure, though exergerated, tends to have a soothing effect. The initiative also lowers the economy’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which provides the government the feeling of having under-borrowed. And, that more debts are still sustainable, thereby triggering a borrowing spree, as currently being experienced.

Before rebasing the economy, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio was around 52% and decreased to about 39% after the exercise. The global average is over 230%! That seems to have given the government an illusion of sustainable debt level, forgetting that its current GDP, on which the ratio was derived, was “artificial.” The economic structure equally remains devoid of value addition as industry and manufacturing have all but gone. Not when the quantum of power available to the nation of over 230 million people graples with about 5000mw of electricity, less than what cities like Beijing, Tokyo, and Delhi consume. Even primary production in agriculture – the mainstay of the economy – remains rudimentary and at the mercy of the vagaries of weather conditions.

The government needs to be more cautious to avoid getting into a debt trap and throw the nation into a vicious circle of poverty and instability. At that point, the IMF/World Bank would have simply turned their back on the country to sort the crisis they collectively created. Ask Greece, Sudan, Mexico, Argentina, or Sri Lanka for experience. Alternatively, they will take over and lock the economy into a perpetual consumer mode of the exploitative global neoliberal economy.

Few countries have wriggled out of such stranglehold in one piece – particularly those operating a compromised and/or fragile version of democratic government as Nigeria does. A padded GDP rate is the usual take-off point into this economic flight to abyss.
A.G.Abubakar
agbarewa@gmail.com

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Opinion

Odua People’s Assembly defends NSA Ribadu, criticizes Ishola Williams’ call for removal

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The Odua People’s Assembly (OPA) has come out in defense of National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, condemning recent remarks by retired Nigerian Army General Ishola Williams calling for Ribadu’s removal.

In a statement issued by OPA Chairman Richard Olatunji Kayode, the group described Williams’ comments, made during a Channels Television interview on March 15, 2026, as “irresponsible and counterproductive,” arguing that they lacked factual basis and risked undermining efforts to address Nigeria’s security challenges.

“His assertions lack factual support and are driven more by emotional manipulation than by evidence-based reasoning,” Kayode said. “Such rhetoric contributes to a culture of ‘permanent pessimism’ that undermines the morale of our security forces and the integrity of our national institutions.”

Kayode emphasized that irresponsible criticism, unlike constructive feedback, damages reputations, fosters mistrust, and distracts from meaningful solutions.

He urged that public discourse focus on actionable measures rather than unsubstantiated accusations.

The OPA highlighted Ribadu’s proactive initiatives, including the National Forest Guard programme, as well as his record as former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), where he gained recognition for anti-corruption efforts.

“Under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Ribadu has been recognized for his effectiveness in combating banditry and terrorism. His ability to coordinate security forces and solve criminal cases demonstrates his competence and dedication to public safety,” Kayode said.

The group called on influential Nigerians to engage in responsible and constructive dialogue on national security issues, urging Williams to reconsider his position and contribute to solutions rather than criticism.

“Our collective responsibility is to foster an environment of trust, collaboration, and constructive criticism, ensuring that our security forces are equipped and supported to protect our great nation,” Kayode concluded.

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Opinion

Ben Okezie Kalu: The Lawmaker in Our Hearts

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By Kassim Omomia

We have watched Ben Okezie Kalu the deputy speaker of the House with all admiration. He exudes humour, humility and hardwork.
Kalu did not catch our glimpse from the wrong side but from a prism of competence, dedication and above all patriotism in his legislative duties. Even though we may not have a full grasp of Okezie’s elementary political life up till his ascension to the exalted office of Deputy speaker, House of Representatives, Federal Republic of Nigeria, but it is on record that he served extremely well and meritoriously when as a first time member of the House of Representatives he was chairman Media and Publicity committee, doubling as spokesperson and image maker.

Okezie stirred the House public outlook to the approval of Nigerians and the outside world,comparing that unit of the Nigerian bicameral legislature he managed its image to world parliaments, like the US Congress and the British House of Common,among others. At home, the House of Representatives earned “the Peoples Parliament” accolade “.
Recalling Okezie’s past,the nostalgia breeds excitement and a continuous commitment to legislative and representatives’ service to his people and the country.

Albeit these well delivered services, his underscoring accomplishments were reinforced by his promotion and advancement to the post of Deputy Speaker House of Representatives, a divine elevation to yet, many exalted offices to come.Kalu qualifies to be governor, and Vice President, even the President of this great country ,if young men are roundly supported for such enviable positions.

Notwithstanding, his Bills , motions are not watery but of immense value to democratic governance, systemic reforms and overall growth and welfare of Nigerians. Call it democratic dividends, the Bende constituents have never had it so good, until now. Similarly his quest for a people’s constitution brings to fore his worthy contributions in the current alteration of the1999 Constitution exercise which he midwife’s for the House of Representatives. He speaks continually about a people’s inclusiveness in people’s document. He speaks about equity, justice and fairness for all. He’s concerned about security, a community policing strategy where states look critically into domestic security and policing. Okezie speaks for all: about good life for Nigerians, not only the Abia people he represents.

Curiously, I have also come in good terms and stead with his leadership style, especially his legislative prowess in presiding, either as Speaker in Chair or Chairman at the Committee of Whole”,a serious and critical aspect of legislative business, where reports become laws made by the parliament. At this critical level of legislative engagement, Ben Okezie Kalu has performed extremely well ,surpassing past deputies. This scoring is without prejudice or gainsaying but with all modesty.

I have written about parliamentary activities,from plenary to investigative hearings, to deliberations and considerations of reports , either in Committee of Supply for money issues -budgets etc, since 2000. I have also been privileged to sit for longer periods listening from the gallery, deliberations at the “Committee of Whole’, a tedious and significant session of legislative processes and never seeing a deputy speaker as pragmatic and intelligent like Kalu. it takes a Chair that is not lazy but with dexterity, humility, patience and resilience to succeed in any report consideration at the “Committee of Whole”.And one former deputy speaker who comes close to Kalu in assesment was Hon Lasun.But with this current Deputy Speaker, the magic wand to navigate these trying moments where every member appears uninterested in their legislative function, is unprecedented.

Two manoeuvres that beat my imagination and exhibit Kalu’s superb style is his smooth management of deliberations and final consideration of the 2025 Electoral.Amendment Bill and the passage of the 2026-2028 MTEF and FSP, on Thursday December 18 2025, few moments to the 2026 Budget presentation by President Ahmed Tinubu to the joint session of the National Assembly.

His mental alertness, understanding of the subject matter, his assessment of the mood and psyche of the members and his strategic demeanour coupled with the patience and resilient approachas well as his humility, diplomacy in getting an unwilling session sit for hours, unknowingly to the members that they had sat for so long and passed a record two critical national assignments, still leaves even the members amiss how it began but ended well.

For over two weeks now, there have been several adjournments to consider the Electoral amendment Bill. The constraints at times point to the inconsequential number of members in session , or when there’s a seeming quorum, inertia and unwillingness sets in.
According to checks, members’ lacklustre attitude in these ending times, come from failed promises from the executive branch such that it was gathered that the lawmakers were adjourning for the yuletide break without cash -backings.This development not only worries the legislators who are at a loss over how to satify their insatiable constituents during the Christmas festivities, but has resulted to the lethargy displayed by them in carrying out their statutory duties of law making . Fears are that, the members may not chorus “on your mandate we stand”, going forward, especially on 19 Friday December 2025, when the President presents his 2026 budget to the joint session of the National Assembly
While the outcome of that session is awaited, the success gained in the House of Representatives for completing and finally passing the MTEF/FSP in record time and upon which premise President Tinubu submits the 2026 Appropriation Bill, after the Senate hurriedly put out their own since Tuesday evening,underscores the goodwill the deputy speaker enjoys from his colleagues,expectedy due to his humility and resilience,such that in over six- unstoppable hours, he successfully managed a tensed session to effectively pass the MTEF and Electoral.amenment Bill. This is all kudos to a young PAN- Nigerian legislator in our hearts

That Ben Okezie Kalu displays an uncommon leadership acumen, which promotes unity and which with he won the hearts of all who sat in plenary on that faithful Thursday 18 2025,is an understatement . This is so because all the lawmaker at that Thursday session,wether Hausa, Fulani, Yoruba,Edo, TIV ,Idoma,Gbagy and of course Ibo were in sync with, aligning with his master stroke with which he chaired that earlier unpredictable session that later became a huge success. I have a dream that Ben Okezie Kalu shall accomplish more in his political career, given his character, competence and leadership capacity.

He will excel beyond this time, tide and position. Ben Okezie Kalu is the lawmaker in our hearts and qualifies for our award as ‘ A Legislature- Exemplar’ even as we watch him deliver again during the final voting of the alteration to the 1999 constitution ( As Ammended) in the days to come.

Kassim Omomia of the Bigeyeonline writes from Abuja

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Opinion

MAKING THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR WORK FOR CITIZENS: NUPRC RESCUE MISSION

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By James Itodo

The Nigerian oil and gas sector, since its discovery, exploration, and exploitation at the turn of the century, has become the goose that lays the golden egg, likened only to the much-sought-after bride.

This is because oil, and later gas, remained the main economic sustainer, accounting for virtually all the revenue utilised for the economic sustainability and stability of the country—a nation driven by a monolithic economy.

Various attempts at sustaining its viability failed because those reforms lacked the necessary ingredients and the political will of their drivers to succeed. Moreover, the temptation of the enormous amounts generated, and the ease of generating this revenue, became stronger than the moral responsibility and patriotic devotion of the country’s leaders, causing various rulers to rely completely on oil while abandoning or ignoring agriculture and every other means of generating revenue, including all forms of diversification and integration.

The present Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) was born out of necessity: first, to inherit the abnormalities of the past; and second, to set in motion reforms aimed at effectively repositioning the sector. Key among these is strong political will and the appropriate sensitisation of the country’s political leaders to look beyond oil and gas revenue and think towards diversification.

To carry this out effectively, there is a need to build trust and confidence on the fulcrum of accountability and transparency.
So far, the verdict has been positive. The basic recipe for repositioning and bringing about a volte-face in the sector is now present: accountability and transparency.

A new era, based on a better concept of transparency and accountability, is enhancing the effective repositioning of the Nigerian oil and gas sector, which will work for the overall benefit of all citizens and indeed residents.

Today, Nigerians are now seeing the oil and gas sector as a blessing, with transparency and accountability becoming the fulcrum of operations at the NUPRC.

There is no doubt that, for decades, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector was a cesspit of abhorrent and odious corruption, coupled with mismanagement—a centre of graft, earning the moniker “resource curse.”
Instead of bringing blessings to the country, it became an avenue for self-aggrandisement and self-enrichment at the detriment of national interest, economic growth, prosperity, and development.

As a whole, the sector’s opacity and lack of accountability led to widespread corruption, where the few who had access to this national wealth enriched themselves and their families—buying choice houses at highly exorbitant prices in prime cities of the world and sending their children to schools abroad on ear-splitting school fees, all with our common patrimony—at the expense of the country. This resulted in environmental degradation and human rights abuses, leaving citizens with little to show for the country’s vast oil resources, world oil production status, and its derived and associated wealth.

However, a new dawn has emerged with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) leading a rescue mission to reposition the sector with renewed vigour, intentionality, and patriotic commitment under the leadership of Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, who has turned the NUPRC into a beacon of hope for Nigerians.
Unambiguously, the NUPRC’s commitment to transparency is demonstrated through its proactive disclosure of key industry data—which had previously been shrouded in obscurity—including production figures, revenue streams, and contract awards.

The demystification and openness of this key information have greatly enhanced the fostering of trust and confidence among stakeholders, including local communities, civil society organisations, and international partners.
Another signature reform is the strengthening and implementation of the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), which ensures that oil and gas revenues are transparently tracked and accounted for, thereby reducing corruption and ensuring that revenues are channelled for the overall benefit of all citizens.

Projecting the ideals of the Renewed Hope Agenda of the Tinubu-led administration, the NUPRC has also prioritised increased utilisation of local content development, bringing on board many more Nigerian companies to participate in the oil and gas value chain, thereby creating more jobs, stimulating economic growth, and empowering local communities.

The sector’s transformation is an unequivocal demonstration of the power of transparency and accountability.
Daily, Nigerians are beginning to see oil and gas resources as a direct blessing rather than a curse, with a sector and operators poised to drive economic growth, create jobs, and improve living standards.

However, this is just the beginning; the journey is far from over, and the best is yet to come—for all of us.
While Nigerians holistically embrace these reforms, they must also continue to demand transparency and accountability from their leaders, while the NUPRC’s efforts must be supported and sustained to ensure that the sector remains a catalyst for national development.

There is no doubt that the oil and gas sector can be a powerful catalytic tool for poverty reduction, wealth creation, and economic transformation. This can be imminently and necessarily achieved when the NUPRC continues in its commitment to transparency and accountability, predicated on the resilience of Nigerians, who will look forward to a brighter future where their natural resources work for them, not against them.

It must be a collaborative and conscientious responsibility of all Nigerians not only to support the NUPRC’s efforts and reforms targeted at transforming the oil and gas sector but also to demand consistent transparency and accountability from our leaders, as this will ensure that our natural resources benefit all Nigerians, securing a brighter future for Nigeria and Nigerians.

Itodo writes from Abuja

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